China's calculation when bringing missiles to Hoang Sa

The presence of HQ-9 missile batteries will not trigger a crisis, but is enough for China to expand its influence in the East Sea.

A Chinese HQ-9 air defense missile system. Photo: Wuxinghongqi

On February 17, Fox News published satellite images showing that China had deployed two HQ-9 air defense missile batteries on Phu Lam Island in Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago, which China had occupied since 1974.

Although Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this was "an attempt to fabricate a story by some Western media outlets", US and Taiwanese officials confirmed the presence of eight HQ-9 missile launchers on the island.

According to Interpreter commentator Sam Roggeveen, this is not the first time China has deployed modern military weapons to Woody Island. Last November, Beijing deployed J-11 fighter jets to the airstrip on the island.

Roggeveen pointed out that in the released satellite images, the military vehicles of the two HQ-9 missile batteries were parked parallel on the beach, not in specialized fortifications. Although the HQ-9 is a mobile missile system that uses heavy trucks to move, it still needs warehouses and bases to maintain the vehicles, missiles and radars. Satellite images show that these fortifications and warehouses have not appeared on Phu Lam Island.

From there, this expert believes that the HQ-9 missile may only be deployed temporarily on Phu Lam Island and not as a long-term deployment plan. In the harsh environment of the East Sea, modern weapon systems are very susceptible to corrosion and rust, similar to what China's J-11 fighter jets encountered last year, causing them to quickly be withdrawn to the mainland.

China brought J-11 fighter jets to Phu Lam Island. Photo: 81.cn

Whether the HQ-9 missiles are present on Woody Island temporarily or permanently, they will cause concern to the international community and countries in the region, because this modern air defense system can cover the entire Paracel Islands and the southern gateway to Hainan Island, where China has large submarine and naval bases, according to expert Euan Graham at the Lowy Institute in Australia.

careful calculation

Graham believes that Beijing's deployment of HQ-9 missiles to Phu Lam is a carefully calculated escalation in its "militarization" of the East Sea. If China's long-term strategy is to gain military superiority in the East Sea, the deployment of HQ-9 missiles will serve the short-term goal of deterring the US from conducting freedom of navigation operations near the Paracel Islands.

The most recent US freedom of navigation operation was carried out within 12 nautical miles near Tri Ton Island in the Paracel Islands, not far from Phu Lam Island. This action by the US at that time surprised China, and the deployment of HQ-9 to Phu Lam could be a move to prevent similar US flights in the future, the expert emphasized.

Although in peacetime these missiles cannot be fired at US aircraft operating nearby, it may have a certain deterrent value, forcing US strategists to think carefully before conducting flight operations in the region.

Beijing likely also calculated that the presence of these HQ-9 missile batteries would not trigger a serious missile crisis, but it would be enough to expand its influence in the East Sea.

According to Graham, when Chinese President Xi Jinping declared in Washington last September that China had “no intention of pursuing militarization,” he was likely referring to the Spratly Islands. Therefore, Beijing would feel more confident in deploying anti-aircraft weapons in the Paracels.

Two HQ-9 missile batteries deployed on the coast of Phu Lam Island. Photo: Fox News

This could be a move by Beijing to test the international community's reaction before it can take steps to militarize the illegally built artificial islands in Truong Sa, or even declare the establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East Sea.

Chinese naval officials have also hedged their bets on the move, saying Beijing would boost defenses on the artificial islands "according to the level of threat."

In terms of political context, this move by China took place while ASEAN leaders were attending a summit with US President Barack Obama in Sunnylands. The appearance of the HQ-9 missile in the media can be seen as a "deterrent" by China that ASEAN should not get too close to the US on the East Sea issue, according to Graham.

However, China's calculations could erode the international community's confidence in its commitments. "Although the Chinese Foreign Ministry may claim that these missiles are purely defensive, their presence will certainly call into question China's commitment not to militarize the South China Sea," said Felix Chang, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

According to VNE