Tomahawk shoots down American reputation?

Technical explanations

The May 2018 issue of the Russian Defense-Industrial Information magazine has just published a front-page article about the downing of a US Tomahawk missile in Syria. According to the Russian magazine, the April 14 attack represented a “slow” and “sad” global strike, in which the Tomahawk missile “shone” by shooting down the US reputation.

According to the Russian magazine, the West attacked Syria with a variety of combat elements, from warships equipped with cruise missiles, fighter jets, bombers such as the US B-1B with GBU-38 bombs, F-15 and F-16 fighters with surface-to-air missiles, possibly the AGM-158. The UK also sent 4 Tornadoes with Storm Shadow/SKALP to participate in the attack.

Tomahawk missiles are launched from the USS Monterey in the Mediterranean Sea during the attack on Syria on April 14.

Notably, the Russian magazine said that the participation of French forces in the April 14 attack on Syria was obscure because no one noticed.

The article in the Russian magazine also quoted the announcement of the country's Ministry of Defense, which gave statistics considered "surprising", emphasizing that 71 out of 103 US Tomahawks were shot down by Syrian air defenses.

The air defense systems that shot down the Tomahawk were even more remarkable, as they included mostly Soviet-era models, including the S-125, S-200, the first export version of the Buk, Kvadrat and Osa-ME, and a number of other small-caliber anti-aircraft guns.

Russian experts say that in previous military campaigns, US Tomahawk missiles achieved "absolute combat reliability" with losses below 20% and the number of missiles reaching the target always exceeding 90%.

Pieces of a Tomahawk missile shot down in Syria were displayed by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 25.

So what happened in Syria? According to the Russian magazine, the answer lies in a few important details. The first factor is the duration of the attack on April 14, which lasted about an hour and a half. So, with more than 100 missiles, the target density for the air defense system was not high.

The missiles flew into the destruction zone of the Syrian air defense system in the number of only 2-6 missiles per wave and the interval between each wave was greater than the firing cycle of the air defense vehicles (30-40 seconds). This allowed the Syrian air defense system to destroy the targets flying into its destruction zone one by one.

Another important factor is that the US Tomahawks were not supported by electronic warfare. Syrian air defenses were able to shoot down Tomahawks without any interference. Thus, the 69% of Tomahawks shot down is completely consistent with the combat efficiency of destroying cruise missiles with 2-missile salvos of air defenses used in Syria.

The Russian magazine also noted that the above combat effectiveness was achieved due to the quality training of Syrian soldiers thanks to the Russian advisory team.

Another detail that needs to be remembered is that in Syria there is also a Russian A-50 early warning aircraft operating and can act as a "spotter" for the Syrian air defense system.

Russian A-50 early warning aircraft

The radar field of ground-based air defense systems has limited visibility and can be “blind” to low-flying targets. Meanwhile, cruise missiles flying at altitudes below 50 meters can only be detected at a distance of 25-30 kilometers.

With distances between air defense points reaching hundreds of kilometers, winged missiles have plenty of "gaps" to squeeze through. In mountainous terrain, there are even blind spots that radars cannot reach.

Thus, when detecting a target flying into its area, the ground-based air defense system has less than 5 minutes. In addition to the 3-4 minute start-up time, the air defense system also needs more time for the missile. Thus, the ground-based air defense system will not have time to react to the attack. This is exactly what happened in Iraq, Yugoslavia and Libya.

However, the Russian A-50 early warning aircraft completely changed the situation when it detected low-flying missiles from a distance of up to 200-250 km. To overcome this distance, the missile needed 14-18 minutes, or even more. This time is more than enough, even for old air defense systems.

The Russian magazine also noted that a characteristic of the Tomahawk is its dependence on the global positioning system. Once this guidance system malfunctions, the missile will deviate from its trajectory. Thus, the Tomahawk missiles "lost their way" most likely because the NAVSTAR guidance system was affected by electronic warfare.

Russian irony

From the above analysis, Russian experts believe that it is entirely possible to prevent attacks using precision weapons from a distance with a properly organized air defense system. That also means that such attacks are ineffective against countries with modern air defense means.