Weapons losses in the Russia-Ukraine conflict put Europe in trouble

Both Russia and Ukraine suffered heavy losses in the conflict. Photo: Getty

The conflict in Ukraine, now in its second year, is fueling the global arms trade, increasing demand for military equipment not only in Russia and Ukraine but also around the world as countries prepare for possible confrontation scenarios.

It can be said that the amount of weapons and ammunition used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exceeded all estimates. This has been putting pressure on the ammunition production and supply chain in the world.

This is not an uncommon problem. Historically, militaries have sometimes underestimated the extent of their ammunition and weapons losses, making military planning difficult.

However, during World War I and World War II, many countries were able to maintain a huge supply of military equipment because the weapons of the time were relatively simple and did not have as many sophisticated and complex components as today. The Russo-Ukraine conflict did not see the same large-scale loss of weapons as the two wars mentioned above. But the loss of advanced technology can cause headaches for military policymakers and strategists.

NATO and several other European countries have transferred a lot of military equipment to Ukraine, from protective equipment, air defense systems, drones, and recently a series of landmark decisions to provide Ukraine with more advanced weapons including long-range missiles, armored vehicles and modern tanks.

But the West has remained cautious about the transition, fearing escalating tensions with Russia, despite Ukraine’s urging. Analysts say this could reduce Kiev’s initiative on the battlefield and allow Russia to quickly gain the upper hand. President Putin appears to be banking on more than 300,000 new troops being mobilized under a partial mobilization decree in 2022 to bolster his forces in Ukraine.

As Russia launches a new offensive in the east, some say there are signs that its forces are close to achieving the military breakthrough Mr Putin has long sought, particularly taking control of the strategically important city of Bakhmut. But others are skeptical, arguing that the losses of the past 12 months may force Moscow to rebuild its forces from scratch.

Losses for both Russia and Ukraine

Open-source intelligence websites Oryx and Army Technology have provided estimates of losses on both sides. According to the websites, Russia has deployed 15,857 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,391 aircraft since February 2022. As of December 2022, Moscow has lost 794 infantry fighting vehicles and 71 aircraft, as well as 91 artillery pieces.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has deployed 3,309 infantry fighting vehicles and 128 aircraft. The country's losses as of December 2022 are 418 infantry fighting vehicles, 55 aircraft and 92 artillery pieces. Information about these losses has not been confirmed by Russian and Ukrainian authorities.

The loss of important, technologically sophisticated military assets can make battlefield commanders worry about the risk of direct or indirect confrontation with the enemy. Without a large number of weapons to replace them, these devices may not be deployed in combat or used only in special circumstances.

European countries are now looking to bolster their own arms stockpiles and equip Ukraine with missile launchers and tanks. Germany is one example, with the government abandoning its military reluctance and pledging $100 billion to re-equip its army. The West is concerned that its weapons stockpiles will dwindle if it does not expand production, given Ukraine’s current rate of weapons use is the fastest in Europe since World War II.

Experts say that arms companies’ shares have risen to their highest levels in years, and the defense sector has outperformed other industries. This has reversed a trend that began before the conflict in Ukraine, when people were investing in environmental, social and corporate governance issues, rather than the defense industry. After about a year, Europe has realized that its first important task is to ensure the security and safety of its citizens. That requires boosting its military capabilities and building a strong defense industry, said Kevin Craven, head of ADS Group.

It remains unclear whether Europe can turn things around, as government defense budgets have been on a downward trend since World War II, especially since the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, military hardware has become more expensive. Time will tell whether battlefield commanders are willing to use more expensive and harder-to-replace equipment. The answer could change the nature of modern conflict and give a different definition to the phrase “cost of war.”