President Putin signs decree to increase troops: Will Russia fight Ukraine to the end?

Vostok 2018 exercise takes place in the Trans-Baikal region (Eastern Russia). Photo: Modern Diplomacy

Putin is preparing for a long war

The decree, posted on the Kremlin's website, calls for increasing Russia's active military personnel by 137,000 to 1.15 million by January 2023 and asks the government to set aside funds to pay for them.

This is the first time in five years that Mr. Putin has issued a decree changing the size of the country's armed forces. Russian officials have not given any explanation for the president's decision, and Russian state television has made little mention of the issue.

According to the New York Times, the decree was issued at a time when Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is entering its seventh month with slow progress. Russia seems to have failed to complete all the goals it set out at the beginning of the war. The prolonged fighting and losses on the battlefield in recent times have caused Moscow to face a shortage of manpower. Although Russia has not announced the official number of casualties since the launch of the military campaign, US and British officials predict that the number of Russian soldiers killed could be up to 80,000.

Despite the challenges Russia faces after six months of fighting, President Putin appears to have no plans to retreat, and the decree is seen as a sign of his determination, according to New York Times writers Anton Troianovski and Ivan Nechepurenko.

“This is not a move you make when you expect a war to end quickly,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation who specializes in Russian defense issues. “You do it when you plan for a protracted conflict.”

Russian hardliners have previously urged the Kremlin to take more drastic action in Ukraine or mobilize more resources to achieve its goals. The call grew louder after the car bombing that killed political commentator Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, and the attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters on the Crimean Peninsula.

Fighting between Russia and Ukraine is still fierce on the eastern and southern fronts. Kiev is trying to stop Russia's advances in the east while stepping up its counter-offensive in the south. Many Ukrainian officials warn that the coming period will be very difficult. Mr. Oleksiy Danilov - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said: "Everything is not easy, if not very difficult. If anyone thinks that we have overcome the most difficult time and the remaining period will be more favorable, this is completely wrong."

Concerned about the coming period, the Ukrainian government is lobbying hard to create a united front in the West and calling for continued aid in arms and money. Recently, the US and many European countries have increased the supply of advanced weapons to Ukraine.

Earlier on August 24, President Biden announced a new military aid package worth nearly $3 billion, the largest ever for Ukraine, bringing the total value of military aid the Biden administration has promised to Kiev since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in late February 2022 to more than $13.5 billion, much higher than the $2 billion in the 2014-2021 period. Despite strong support from the West, the Ukrainian army has still been unable to regain lost territories from Russia despite carrying out a series of long-range precision strikes against the enemy's rear.

How will Russia increase the size of its armed forces?

The Russian Defense Ministry has said that the country is moving at a slower pace in its military campaign to significantly reduce civilian casualties. President Putin has said that the Russian military is “liberating” the eastern region step by step, despite calls from hardliners in the country for Russia to go further. Although the Kremlin insists that the military campaign is proceeding according to plan, analysts are still trying to guess what Putin’s next move will be: Is he preparing to accelerate the military campaign, maintain the current pace, or seek to end the war?

Most Russian analysts say that trying to predict the moves of Mr. Putin, a veteran spy for the Soviet Union’s Security Council (HGB), is a huge challenge and rarely provides a basis for assessment. But the decree issued by President Putin on June 25 shows that he is ready to prepare for a long war.

Many military experts are questioning how the Russian army can carry out the task of increasing its numbers and mobilizing volunteers without a large draft or general mobilization.

Under President Putin, the Russian military has been trying to transform itself from a force heavily reliant on conscripts into a professional army. Over the past several years, the Russian Defense Ministry has increased the number of professional soldiers it has contracted and cut the mandatory military service for men between the ages of 18 and 27 to one year. The Kremlin insists that only professional soldiers and volunteers are fighting in Ukraine.

“This order does not necessarily set the stage for a larger draft or a general mobilization,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert at CNA, a nonprofit research organization in Arlington, Virginia. “It could be a way to boost Russia’s military recruitment efforts.”

Kofman said the Russian military could boost its numbers by adding to the ranks of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, especially as some regions in the region plan to hold referendums on joining Russia. Putin has not announced any large-scale mobilizations, although Western analysts and officials expect he will have to do so to make up for the manpower losses on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Observers say Russian authorities could encourage professional soldiers to sign contracts by offering attractive incentives and special benefits. In May, President Putin signed a law abolishing the 40-year age limit for professional soldiers to sign military service contracts.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst, said the new decree would increase the size of the Russian armed forces to the level of 2000, when Russian soldiers fought in the second war in Chechnya. The decree would allow the Russian military to increase recruitment of conscripts at any time of the year, or extend the period of military service. However, with Russia's declining population and the losses caused by the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow will have many difficulties in achieving the set goals, the expert assessed./.