Syrian President Chooses Russia or Iran in Crisis

Oil crisis in Syria

The crisis in Syria has entered a new phase as the Assad regime has emerged victorious in the country’s eight-year-long civil war. The main actors in the civil war are seeking to increase their influence in different parts of Syria, while the fight to retake the remaining parts of the country and unify the country continues. The division between the West and Russia as well as disagreements between the parties involved on the reconstruction process of Syria have left Damascus “in a tangled mess”.

In particular, the Syrian government is dealing with the worst fuel crisis since the civil war broke out in 2011, as the Middle Eastern country now relies on more than 75% of its fuel imports from outside.

Experts say Damascus must either regain control of the oil fields in the east, especially in areas controlled by the US-backed SDF, or replace its traditional oil supply from Iran with Russia at some cost.

In the long term, the SDF may negotiate with Damascus under US protection, but for now, the SDF will continue to abide by sanctions, tighten oil supply routes, and ensure that no supplies cross the Euphrates River to government-controlled areas.

Syria needs oil to survive. Domestic production in 2019 was 24,000 barrels per day, meeting only 20-25% of the economy’s needs.

The domestic fuel crisis is raising the question of whether Syrian President Assad will choose allies Russia or Iran to "relieve" his current predicament?

Iran's allies are also in trouble.

Iran, a key backer of President Assad, was once Syria’s main source of oil, but Tehran’s economy has been strangled by US sanctions, which are cutting off the lifeblood of Syria’s economy, leading to significant fuel cuts in Aleppo, Damascus and other major cities.

An artisanal oil refinery in the northern Hassaké province of northern Syria, an area currently controlled by Kurdish forces.

Once an oil exporter with 150,000 barrels/day before 2011, after the war, Syria had no choice but to "call for help" from Iran. However, Iranian oil imports suddenly stopped this year, leaving Damascus unable to find any alternative sources to meet its 100,000 barrels/day of domestic needs. The reason for Tehran's disruption is due to economic difficulties and a domestic currency crisis as well as Iran's need to increase oil exports to "big customers" such as China and India before the 6-month sanctions waiver that the US granted to 8 countries and territories expires on May 2. However, on May 5, one of Iran's companies, True Ocean, docked at the Syrian port of Banias carrying the first barrels of oil to the country since January 1.

Russia's interests in Syria

Although Syria is not a major oil or gas partner, Russia has deep energy interests in the Middle Eastern country. First, Syria remains an important factor in Russia’s recent pivot to the Middle East and North Africa, where energy diplomacy plays a major role. Second, Syria has promising oil and gas potential in the eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Syria’s geopolitical location is naturally significant for Russia. Syria borders oil-rich Iraq and is relatively close to the Gulf states and Europe.

However, not only Iran is under US sanctions, but so is Russia. This has brought Moscow and Damascus together in the eastern Mediterranean in the energy sector. Russia's 49-year lease of the Syrian port of Tartus and the maintenance of the Khmeimim air base to protect its position there show that Moscow is still "keen" on this Middle Eastern country.

President Assad's difficult choice

Russia could provide a stable alternative to Iran for fuel supplies. But to do so, President Assad may have to rebalance relations with his two most important allies, Russia and Iran, which have different interests in Syria.

“The question now is what will President Assad give in exchange for Russian help and what benefits will Russia get?” said Kirill Semenov, a Middle East analyst at the Moscow-based Russian International Relations Council.

According to expert Semenov, "Moscow can use this to influence Mr. Assad and make the Syrian President make decisions that benefit Russia more than Iran."

Not long ago, the Syrian government announced plans to lease the port of Tartous to Russia for 49 years, and Moscow could use the port not only for economic purposes but also as a naval base.

The announcement comes after reports in February 2019 that Iran was in talks with the Syrian government to lease the port of Latakia over Damascus’s unpaid debts. This would give Tehran access to the Mediterranean, right next to the port where Russia operates. However, in this situation, Moscow could find itself in a difficult position with Israel, which considers Iran an enemy and maintains a military hotline with Russia.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov met with President Assad in Syria in late April 2019 and said that Russia's lease of the port of Tartous would boost trade between the two countries and bring economic benefits to Syria. He also stressed that the eastern oil fields were currently outside the government's control but that "some concrete proposals" would be made and that "Syria should be ready to solve the problem."

David Butter, an energy expert at Chatham House, said both Iran and Russia are using the fuel crisis to gain influence with President Assad.

“Iran wants to ensure that Syria’s debts are repaid in proportion to its support, while Russia seems to be more interested in gaining military and political control,” Butter said. While Russia has not been explicit about its exact intentions, it appears that “Moscow is seeking to influence President Assad on the scale of a political arrangement that will secure Russian economic and military interests and push Iran out of Syria.”

Leith Aboufadel - founder of Al-Masdar News commented that Damascus "may choose to side with Russia", as well as resume relations with Saudi Arabia - Iran's enemy in the region.

In late April 2019, Russian media reported that President Putin's delegation in Syria had discussed the crisis in Syria with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Gulf countries have all made negotiations with President Assad to draw Damascus away from Tehran's "orbit" of influence.