Turkish President visits the US: The challenge of 'friendship'

The Frosty Welcome

Mr. Tayyip Erdogan may have received a red carpet welcome at the White House, and he may have received a warm handshake from US President Donald Trump. However, that may be the only warm welcome he gets in the US, because outside the White House, American politicians and many Americans do not welcome this visit. The icy atmosphere during Mr. Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the US this time reminds many people of his last visit to the US in 2017, when crowds of protesters took to the streets to protest against Mr. Erdogan, even leading to scuffles between Mr. Erdogan's bodyguards and American protesters.

Mr. Tayyip Erdogan and his wife are on their way to visit the US. Photo: DW - Washington Post

The fact that American politicians and the American people do not welcome Mr. Erdogan is the clearest manifestation of the decline in relations between the two countries, once close allies, stemming from the foreign policies that are not popular with both sides.

The climax of the conflicts and disagreements was Türkiye's decision to launch the military operation "Peace Spring" against the northeastern region of Syria to push the Kurdish forces out of the area. This decision caused a wave of anger in the US Congress, which considered Mr. Erdogan "unjust" when he was ready to shoot at the forces that were "backed" by the US in Syria. The US House of Representatives passed a package of sanctions against Türkiye, although it was blocked by the US Senate, which was overwhelmingly dominated by Republicans.

Türkiye's insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 missile defense system despite all US warnings is another reason why Mr. Erdogan has faced a wave of criticism in the US, contrary to the US statement that "the S-400 is not allowed to appear in any NATO country". Just before Mr. Erdogan's visit to the US, White House National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien said that if Türkiye did not change its decision on the S-400 issue, US sanctions would be ready to take effect at any time.

The Turkish military's attack on the Kurds in Syria has sparked outrage in the US Congress. Photo: Getty Images/EPA

Attacking the Kurds, “colluding” with Russia in Syria, buying S-400 despite being excluded from the US F-35 fighter jet procurement program are not all the things that Mr. Tayyip Erdogan has done to anger the US. Mr. Erdogan also maintains a series of other foreign policies that “add fuel to the fire” such as drilling for oil in disputed waters off Cyprus while the US and Europe strongly oppose, helping Venezuela “launder money” to counter US sanctions, maintaining a friendly relationship with Iran that goes against US policy…

Erdogan’s moves are a direct challenge to the US administration’s foreign policy, which is based on a bet that America needs Türkiye more than Türkiye needs America. So it’s no wonder that Erdogan faced a frosty welcome when he decided to visit the US at this time.

A shining link

Analysts say that the relationship between the US and Türkiye is going through a difficult period when trust between the two government agencies is eroding, and the only bright spot is the personal relationship between President Donald Trump and President Tayip Erdogan. Remember at the opening ceremony of Trump Tower in Istanbul in 2012, Mr. Donald Trump, then a "real estate tycoon", praised Mr. Tayyip Erdogan as a "respected world leader". Until his election, Mr. Donald Trump still kept calling Mr. Erdogan a "good friend".

Mr. Tayyip Erdogan made many decisions that challenged US foreign policy. Photo: K2 Radio

However, today's meeting between the "two friends" is not a place for chatting and confiding, but the "two friends" need to frankly discuss the most thorny issues, to prove that the personal relationship between the two leaders is truly valuable in keeping the relationship between the two countries from completely collapsing. Before the visit, Mr. Erdogan also stated that he shared the same view with President Donald Trump on the need to resolve the problems, in the context of the US-Türkiye relationship being covered by a cold fog. Of course, the biggest concern in the meeting between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Tayyip Erdogan is how the two leaders will handle the two most prominent issues: the policy in the northeastern region of Syria and Turkey's purchase of the S-400 from Russia. According to analysts, it is almost impossible for the US to force Türkiye to reverse its decisions. Instead, Mr. Donald Trump can make proposals for mutual benefits.

To mitigate the seriousness of Türkiye’s previous decision to launch a military attack on northeastern Syria, the US and Türkiye could approach Türkiye in a way that Turkey commits to maintaining a long-term ceasefire, does not harm the US-backed Kurdish forces, and continues to support US goals in preventing the resurgence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria. With Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, the US could “take a step back”, not asking Turkey to cancel the contract, but needing Turkey’s assurance that it will not deploy the S-400, and will not allow the S-400 to access defense systems that can confront the F-35. In return, the US could allow Türkiye to return to the F-35 procurement program, and at the same time make “generous” economic proposals to Türkiye such as signing a $100 billion trade deal.

The challenge for the two leaders in getting US-Turkey relations back on track. Photo: DW

In addition, the US can also consider cooperating with Türkiye in exploiting the oil fields that the US is "protecting" in eastern Syria. These oil fields can solve the economic problem for the US-backed Kurdish forces in the region, and can bring Turkey billions of dollars in taxes when these oil shipments are exported across the Turkish border.

The challenge in the meeting of “two friends” Donald Trump and Tayyip Erdogan is how to minimize the negative impacts, while strengthening the positive aspects in the tumultuous relationship between the US and Türkiye.

It can be said that the US and Türkiye still have many things that they are not satisfied with each other's foreign policies. But after all, losing an ally at this time is not beneficial for either the US or Turkey. Therefore, although the disagreement may not be completely resolved through Mr. Tayyip Erdogan's visit, it also shows the political will of both sides to gradually bring the relationship back on track.