'President for Life' - Putin's New Gamble

Dramatic tactics

The political future of Russian leader Vladimir Putin after his term ends in 2024 under the current Constitution has always been a hot topic when discussing Russian politics. That future became somewhat clearer after the session of the State Duma (lower house) of Russia on Tuesday. Here, the Russian lower house passed a proposal to amend the Constitution to abolish the term limit for President Vladimir Putin, specifically recalculating the number of presidential terms for all individuals to "0" after 2024. This allows Mr. Putin to continue running for the position of President for at least 2 more 6-year terms. The person who proposed the proposal was a highly respected figure in Russia, Ms. Valentina Tereshkova - the first woman to fly into space, currently a Russian MP.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at his inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin in May 2018. Photo: Reuters

Indeed, this is a rather sudden, if not “shocking” move for international observers and perhaps for the Russian people themselves. Remember, in January this year, after reading the Federal Message, President Putin said that “holding power for life, which was common at the end of the Soviet Union, would not be able to solve the task of transferring power and stabilizing the country”. He also affirmed that he would not be “president for life” when there were many speculations that the amendment to the Constitution was to pave the way for him to maintain power. At that time, people predicted that he could play the role of Chairman of the State Council or even run for Parliament to become Prime Minister - the position he held from 2008 to 2012 after his first two presidential terms, or he could quietly leave the Kremlin.

However, after the latest move in the House of Representatives, the most talked about possibility is that President Putin could become “President for life” if he is elected for two more consecutive terms and will only “retire” at the age of 83. The most noteworthy thing is that this time, it was not Mr. Putin who proposed the amendment to the Constitution, but from the side of the Parliament and the National Assembly. This brings objectivity to the amended Constitution and Mr. Putin will not be accused of “holding on to power” even if he runs for election after 2024.

Ms. Valentina Tereshkova, a Russian female MP, proposed to recalculate the number of presidential terms of every individual to "0" after 2024. Photo: EFE

While Tuesday’s surprise move seemed to open a new direction for Putin, questions remain about his political future. In his speech, although he supported the proposed constitutional reform to “recalculate the number of presidential terms,” he did not confirm that he would run for president after 2024, and ended his speech suggestively: “I am sure that we will do many more great things, at least until 2024. And then we will see.”

Some scholars call January 15, 2020, the day Putin launched “Operation 2024” when he announced the most significant amendment to the Russian Constitution since 1993, including giving more power to the parliament, enhancing the role of the State Council…. And March 10 was a turning point in the “operation” that showed that the leader’s calculations are extremely unpredictable, and can change direction and play unexpected “cards” at any time. No one can fully understand the intentions behind Putin’s January announcements and what just happened in the lower house. The only explanation is that the recent dramatic move is part of an effort to create different options for the Russian leader after 2024.

"Betting" on crisis?

Considered a shrewd politician, President Putin always chooses the best time to make announcements that shape Russian politics. The move on March 10 was no exception. “Depending on the public reaction, the risks at a certain point, then he will bet on short-term tricks…”. The assessment of a long-time advisor to Putin seems to be correct in this case. Russia is in a difficult period, especially economically. Like the rest of the world, Russia is dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic damage that comes with it. More worryingly, Russia is currently in an oil price war with Saudi Arabia that threatens to affect the Kremlin’s main source of revenue.

Oil prices plummeted 25% after Russia and Saudi Arabia launched a price war, threatening the Russian economy. Photo: TASS

Some experts believe that President Putin is betting on these crises and that this is a time when Russia needs political stability more than ever. Another factor that maintains Mr. Putin's confidence is the support of the people. According to a recent Lavada poll, the people's support rate for him has decreased compared to 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, but it is still high: 68%. The majority of Russians believe that under the leadership of President Putin, Russia has overcome difficult and challenging times, faced "annoying" opponents like the US, and regained its international position from "hot spots" of the world like the Middle East or Venezuela... This mentality of the Russian people will be the "card" to ensure that the amended Constitution will be passed on April 22 as planned.

In addition, by creating options for his political future, Mr. Putin also indirectly sent a message to the Russian elite - who could create major political upheaval in the event of his "retirement" - that he will not let the power struggle create instability and destroy the legacy of his two decades in power.

President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Parliament on March 10. Photo: AFP

Many observers believe that the constitutional amendments announced in January and on March 10 show that Mr. Putin is quite clever and cautious in choosing his own future. The proposed amendments to the Constitution will give him more flexibility and more options to continue to be the leader of Russia, no matter what role and position he chooses after 2024.