North Korea - Trump's 'strategic card' in the race for re-election to the White House?
(Baonghean) - Negotiating with North Korea is the way President Donald Trump has chosen to promote the process of complete denuclearization of the peninsula. After two summits without reaching any agreement, the US leader seems to have failed. However, now, North Korea could be President Trump's strategic "card" to create new momentum in the race for re-election to the White House.
Third Trump-Kim summit?
In recent polls, President Trump's crisis has become a "gift" for his opponent Joe Biden. The New York Times' results show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 14% nationwide, including a 22-point advantage with female voters and a 33-point advantage with independents. The incumbent president is criticized for failing to control Covid-19, the devastated economy, and failing to show empathy to the public.
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| President Donald Trump and Leader Kim Jong-un at the Summit in Hanoi in February 2019. Photo: Reuters |
In that context, resuming nuclear disarmament negotiations with North Korea is considered a diplomatic breakthrough, helping to restore voters' trust in Trump. This idea is called "October surprise". This is a common strategy of candidates in US presidential elections, aiming to gain voters' support right before the vote on November 3. This step of President Trump was mentioned by John Bolton, former national security advisor, in his memoir.
“If the president feels he is in too much trouble, another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could turn things around again.”
In his tweets, President Trump has repeatedly mentioned the next meeting with the North Korean leader and expressed his desire to “meet again soon”. Ironically, North Korea seems to have no interest in playing the US political game. The Pyongyang government feels no need to confront Washington, because they see bilateral dialogue as nothing more than “a tool to grapple with the domestic political crisis”.
North Korea has made it clear that it will adopt a “new way” to deal with sanctions unless the United States comes up with a “different way of calculating” acceptable to Pyongyang. Despite the economic setbacks caused by international sanctions and the impact of the pandemic, North Korea continues to expand and perfect its strategic arsenal.
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| US-North Korea talks have reached a deadlock as both sides maintain a hardline stance on the nuclear issue. Photo: Reuters |
Although North Korea has maintained a hardline stance that another US-North Korea summit at this point would be “useless for Pyongyang,” experts say that leader Kim Jong-un is believed to favor Trump over Joe Biden. Biden’s North Korea policy appears to focus on strengthening sanctions and the US-South Korea military alliance. A second term for President Trump could therefore be an advantage for North Korea. For North Korea, if re-elected, President Trump would be willing to make a deal.
“A fourth meeting between Trump and Kim is not impossible. Traditionally, a US president would not engage in such international negotiations before an election. But Trump seems motivated to go beyond the script.”
The role of the "triangle" relationship
Many experts believe that issues related to North Korea cannot be sustainable and meaningful without the important role of China - Pyongyang's largest trade partner and ally, especially when North Korea is under a lot of pressure from UN sanctions.
North Korea, on the one hand, does not want to damage its relationship with its powerful neighbor China, but on the other hand, it wants to improve relations with the United States in the hope of escaping international sanctions that are strangling its economy.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meets US President Donald Trump at the Korean Demilitarized Zone in June 2019. Photo: New York Times |
China shares a 1,400-kilometer border with North Korea and is the only country with a legally binding aid and cooperation treaty with Pyongyang. This relationship gives China more leverage over North Korea than any other country, said Ma Sang-yoon, a professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Korea in Seoul.
China has been reluctant to join international sanctions against North Korea. But if the US-China confrontation continues to escalate, Beijing could use North Korea as a bargaining chip against the US and its allies. Some experts also believe that the Trump administration’s focus on containing China could allow Pyongyang to pressure Washington into concessions and sanctions relief that it failed to achieve at previous summits.
North Korea, which relies heavily on China for vital trade, is keenly aware of its growing importance to China, which means it will treat China as a nuclear superpower.
Moreover, North Korea is valuable to China as a buffer zone, so Pyongyang will focus on exploiting this advantage, especially in the context of increasingly fierce competition between the US and China. In other words, the hostility between the US and China will enhance North Korea's position, making it difficult for the US and its allies to pressure Pyongyang into making concessions.
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| President Trump campaigned in Tulsa. Photo: Politico |
With President Trump struggling with a losing streak in the US polls, North Korea will inevitably reevaluate its plans, including possibly returning to ever more provocative actions, a classic Pyongyang tactic that it uses as leverage to deter regional countries and US allies.
"Leader Kim Jong-un could give President Trump an 'October surprise' but in a different way - a series of missile tests."
It can be said that the "October surprise" with the third US-North Korea summit will not be able to take place if North Korea is not willing to compromise, something that President Donald Trump urgently needs in his efforts to win a second term.
