North Korea releases American student: Negotiation technique or personal motive?

(Baonghean) - The American media has labeled North Korea as the country with one of the most terrifying punishments in the world: more than ten years of hard labor in one of the "notorious" local labor camps. When American citizens are caught up in the law in Pyongyang, "early release" is a distant dream. Therefore, a few days ago, North Korea suddenly released American student Otto Warmbier, a move that deserves a lot of attention.

Otto Warmbier - the American student who was recently released by North Korea, has been in a coma for a year. Photo: USA Today

Difficult "precedent"

Negotiations with Pyongyang have always been challenging, and success has not always been a success for negotiators. In many cases, in exchange for freedom for its citizens, Washington has had to resort to “unique” methods. On March 17, 2009, Euna Lee and Laura Ling - two American journalists - were arrested and charged with illegally entering North Korea to conduct a smear campaign, with each sentenced to 12 years of hard labor, with no chance of appeal. In August 2009, former US President Bill Clinton made a private trip to Pyongyang and met with then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to find a way to help free the journalists. North Korea said Mr. Clinton “expressed his sincere apology,” and the former US leader had to spend 3 hours having dinner and taking photos with Mr. Kim Jong-il. A day later, Euna Lee and Laura Ling were acquitted and released.

In late 2012, US officials once again announced that Kenneth Bae, the owner of a travel company, had been arrested while on a business trip to North Korea, accused of “hostile acts” against the country, establishing bases in China with the aim of “ousting” the North Korean government, encouraging North Korean citizens to overthrow the government, and conducting a “sinister smear campaign.”

North Korean state media also reported that Mr. Bae had plotted to overthrow the country through religious activities. A sentence of 15 years of hard labor seemed too much for Mr. Bae’s health at the time, but when former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Bill Richardson traveled to North Korea to negotiate on behalf of the businessman in January 2013, no settlement was reached. Four months later, former NBA star Dennis Rodman—who claims to have an undying friendship with leader Kim Jong-un—announced that he would try to secure Bae’s release, but that didn’t work, at least not immediately.

In January 2014, when asked by CNN about his trip to North Korea and Mr. Bae’s case, sports star Rodman suddenly criticized him harshly, although he later apologized and claimed that he was “drunk.” Bae was only spared prison 10 months later after James Clapper, then the Director of National Intelligence, traveled to Pyongyang and delivered a letter from President Barack Obama to the authorities. When he returned safely, Bae ironically thanked Dennis Rodman for drawing public attention to his case.

And on January 2, 2016, Otto Warmbier, a student at the University of Virginia, was charged with committing a “hostile act” against the North Korean government. The Pyongyang government later released a video of Warmbier apologizing and admitting to “removing a political slogan from the reception area of ​​the Yanggakdo International Hotel,” and sentenced the student to 15 years of hard labor. However, it was recently reported that Warmbier had been in a coma for the past year.

On June 6, the diplomatic process was initiated when US State Department Special Representative Joseph Yun met with Pak Kil-yon, the head of the North Korean mission to the United Nations, in New York, and learned of Warmbier's deteriorating health. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson then consulted with President Donald Trump and directed Yun to prepare for a trip to North Korea to bring Warmbier back to the United States. Yun and a medical team were sent to North Korea on June 12 to demand Warmbier's freedom on humanitarian grounds. On June 13, the 22-year-old student was released, but in poor health and was declared unconscious, in a vegetative state, and had lost brain cells in all areas of the brain by doctors at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center in the US at a press conference on June 15.

Former US President Bill Clinton visited North Korea in August 2009 to meet with leader Kim Jong-il about releasing prisoners. Photo: Getty

Pyongyang's calculations

The US State Department said they are continuing to investigate the authenticity of the information provided by North Korea, to see if Warmbier was poisoned and in a coma for a long time. From Pyongyang's perspective, it is not unreasonable for them to detain American prisoners and release them when the time is right. In the case of Otto Warmbier, although the US State Department was really determined to "reclaim the person", in the end, that was not necessarily the decisive factor that made North Korea "change its mind".

Instead, analysts believe that Kim Jong-un has three other motives. First, if Warmbier dies, he will be in a weaker position in negotiations with the US government. Conversely, if Warmbier is still alive, Pyongyang can record his pleas for release and use him as a “human shield” in case of an attack. But if Warmbier dies, in addition to reducing North Korea’s negotiating power, it could also provoke retaliation. Therefore, if it cannot afford to treat Warmbier, or if his condition is beyond repair, Pyongyang should release him rather than let him die in prison.

Second, the release may be seen by Pyongyang as a “humanitarian” gesture. Given what is known about Kim Jong-un, observers speculate that the leader may have insisted that Warmbier deserved 15 years of hard labor, but North Korea is making a show of goodwill. Without sinking ships, launching missiles, and detaining thousands of people in labor camps, Pyongyang has finally agreed to let the sickly student return to his parents, so what else can it expect? Without a sophisticated public diplomacy campaign in Western countries, North Korea does not have much of an audience to hope will “bend” to its side. But at the very least, the country hopes that what it is doing will appease, or at least not further the drumbeat of American war.

Finally, President Donald Trump has shown that, for better or worse, he cares more about the lives of Americans than anyone else. He is even willing to send back migrants and asylum seekers who are on the brink of death to protect Americans from potential security threats. As Trump said of Syrian migrants during his presidential campaign late last year, “I warn those who are coming to the United States from Syria, who are part of this massive immigration, that if I win, they will have to go back.” And under Trump, the fallout from the death of a single American citizen could be far more profound than that of thousands of South Koreans or Japanese. That is something North Korea should consider.

Thu Giang