North Korea and the wrong move

North Korea often holds its citizens as bargaining chips with the United States, but it appears to have made a mistake in Warmbier's case.

Otto Warmbier, 22, was arrested on charges of threatening North Korea. Photo: AFP.

North Korea has a familiar script when it comes to detaining American citizens: They will hold a trial with a lengthy prison sentence, then release the prisoner in exchange for high-level visits from the US, to serve domestic propaganda purposes, according to AFP.

"In the case of Otto Warmbier, they want to follow the old script," said Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in South Korea. If Otto's case goes according to Pyongyang's wishes, it will be a "great propaganda victory" for them.

Detained American citizens such as journalists Laura Ling, Euna Lee or missionary Kenneth Bae were all released after high-level meetings between former US presidents or officials representing the US commander in chief.

But things didn’t seem to go as planned for North Korea, as Warmbier fell into a coma shortly after being sentenced to 15 years of hard labor in March 2016 for stealing a propaganda banner from a hotel. Warmbier’s health did not improve after 17 months, forcing North Korea to agree to release him on June 13. Warmbier died on June 19 with severe brain damage.

“If you play the same script over and over again, one day it will backfire. That’s what’s happening in this case,” Lankov said.

Experts say North Korea probably did not intend to keep the American citizen in a coma for so long, and there was no reason to push him to his death.

According to Lankov, North Korea always wants to show the world that they treat American prisoners very well. They do not want prisoners to "talk about their suffering and torture when they are released because that greatly affects Pyongyang's international position".

Go Myong-hyun, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, speculates that what happened to Warmbier in North Korea may have been an accident, which is why they kept it a secret for the past year.

"According to defectors, Pyongyang often returns prisoners with serious health problems," said Greg Scarlatoiu, director of the Human Rights Watch in North Korea (HRNK). "By releasing prisoners with poor health conditions, prisons and relevant agencies avoid facing awkward situations."

Stephan Haggard, director of the Korea-Pacific program at the University of California, Berkeley, said North Korean officials may have been alarmed by the deterioration of Otto Warmbier's health.

According to Haggard, North Korean intelligence may have concealed or not fully reported Warmbier's deep coma, so even the North Korean Foreign Ministry did not know clearly about his condition.

"Finally, someone realized that the worst case scenario was that Warmbier could die in custody. North Korea then began to make some diplomatic moves to free Warmbier," Haggard added.

A miscalculation in the Warmbier case could lead to a more aggressive response and action from the US. The Trump administration could take a number of countermeasures, including increasing or imposing additional international sanctions, banning US travelers from North Korea, or relisting North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism.

"Warmbier's death will increase the pressure on Trump to do something to make Pyongyang understand that sending an American to his death will come with a heavy price," Gordon Chang, a columnist for the Daily Beast, emphasized.

According to VNE