As Australia, a major US ally in the Asia-Pacific, refuses to conduct joint patrols with the US in the South China Sea, all eyes are now on another major ally: Japan.

The US guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen operates at sea. Photo: US Navy

After the US on October 27 sent the destroyer USS Lassen to patrol within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, where China is illegally building in the East Sea, an important question immediately raised is whether Asian allies and partners will follow Washington in making similar moves to challenge Beijing's unreasonable sovereignty claims, according to the analysis site The Strategist of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Experts predict that the US will definitely seek support from Australia and Japan, its closest allies in the Asia-Pacific. However, Canberra announced on October 29 that it has no plans to conduct joint patrols with Washington and will continue its exercises with Beijing in the East Sea.

All eyes are now on Japan, whose involvement is seen as a factor that could significantly change the strategic situation in the East Sea. Many high-ranking Japanese politicians and military leaders have recently frequently mentioned this option.

Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani mentioned in January the possibility that Tokyo would dispatch ships in the near future to coordinate with Washington to conduct patrols in the area.

The above idea was reiterated by Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, Chief of the General Staff of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF), in June. He commented that China's illegal construction of artificial islands in Vietnam's Truong Sa archipelago had caused "a very serious potential concern" for Japan.

Furthermore, under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan’s defense cooperation with several Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia has also become increasingly close. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) conducted a joint naval exercise with the Philippines five months ago as a show of solidarity.

In addition, Japan has taken many measures to strengthen defense relations with two US allies, Australia and India. These countries are all looking for ways to deal with China's constantly increasing military moves, but to different degrees.

All of the above developments give a general sense that Japan seems to be actively participating and playing a larger role in the task of ensuring security in Southeast Asia.

A US Navy warship and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force participated in the Keen Sword joint exercise in the waters south of Japan last November. Photo: US Navy

Little chance

However, according to Benjamin Schreer, professor of strategy and security at Macquarie University, Australia, Tokyo has no real intention of deploying freedom of navigation patrols (FONOPS) in the East Sea with the US for many reasons.

At home, the Abe administration’s goal of building a more assertive defense strategy and policy is currently facing a lot of skepticism. Mr. Abe himself admitted that the collective defense bill, passed last month, paving the way for the Japanese military to fight overseas, did not receive support from the public. Therefore, the decision to send patrol ships in the East Sea at this time will certainly be rejected by the media, voters, opposition parties and even Mr. Abe’s coalition partners.

On the other hand, this action potentially risks harming Japan’s interests in the process of improving relations with China. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo arising from the dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea have recently shown signs of easing. From the perspective of Japanese leaders, provoking China at this time is unnecessary.

According to Yuichi Hosoyam, a professor of international politics at Keio University in Japan, the most feasible proposal Washington could make is to urge Tokyo to deploy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations in the South China Sea. But “this is also unlikely to happen,” Mr. Hosoyam commented. “Instead, Japan would only help in improving the capabilities of Southeast Asian coast guards.”

After all, Japan is not a party to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. If Tokyo were to send ships to patrol, Beijing would react strongly, thereby undermining the progress that both sides have made since the handshake between the two leaders last November.

It should also be noted that Japan's top strategic priority is to protect the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands chain disputed with China in the East China Sea. "The current capacity of the Japan Self-Defense Forces cannot meet the requirements of both protecting the islands and participating in FONOPS," Mr. Schreer commented./.

According to VNE