Middle East - suspended between two US presidential terms

Sit down with Qatar

Qatar's state news agency reported this week that Kushner and his host, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, discussed "regional developments." These, according to DW, could include Qatar's relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia's ally, Bahrain and Egypt, which have boycotted Qatar since June 2017, closing its sea routes, land borders and even airspace to traffic from Qatar because of its close partnership with Iran.

Governments also accuse Qatar of funding terrorism and the transnational political organization the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt and its Gulf allies. Qatari officials have denied the allegations.

Kushner speaks at the Peace to Prosperity conference in Bahrain in 2019. Photo: Reuters

Qatar has been able to offset the financial losses caused by the boycott, which has cut off many food imports, with help from Iran and Türkiye. However, the government indirectly signaled in November that officials might consider reconciliation. Foreign Minister Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani saidGovernment of Qatarhad no official position on Middle Eastern countries normalizing relations with Israel while continuing to occupy Palestinian territories. He said the UAE and Bahraini governments “will ultimately need to decide what is best for their countries.” However, the diplomat added, he “thinks it is better to have a united front” and prioritize “Palestinian interests.”

“Conflict with Iran”

At the moment, the Middle East seems to be divided into two parts, Iran and its allies on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United States and the countries they support on the other. And Kushner is expected to address the subject of Iran during his stay in Saudi Arabia.

In retrospect, Trump’s one-term diplomacy has been erratic, but the president has made it clear that Iran is one of his main issues. Iran is also high on the agenda of his successor, former Vice President Joe Biden.

Working in an Iranian nuclear plant.

Expert Ron Kampeas wrote in a recent analysis published by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA),both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump“are concerned about Iran’s buildup of nuclear material.” Biden could try to return to the 2015 agreement that the Obama administration and other countries signed with Iran to limit its nuclear buildup. That “historic” deal was ultimately scrapped by Trump, and he now has an interest in preventing its return. On this issue, Kampeas writes: “The outgoing president is taking steps to make it harder for his successor, most notably through a strengthened sanctions regime. The most effective way to block a return to the Iran deal would be to start a conflict with Iran.”

Of course, such a conflict would be problematic. Attacking Iran would be a setback to any hopes of fixing the Middle East’s financial system, Karen Young wrote in a November article for the regional news website Al-Monitor. “In effect, it would usher in a lost generation, throwing away the demographic dividend, capturing a young, relatively healthy, and highly educated population and trapping it in poverty, immobility, and silence—perhaps the greatest missed opportunity since the discovery of oil,” Young wrote.

Confronting the Saudi royal family

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman certainly has reasons to worry about Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States under Joe Biden. Some members of Congress have linked Mohammed bin Salman to the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by government employees at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and have called for the crown prince to be held accountable. The Trump administration has blocked all of these efforts, and Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward has even reported that Trump once boasted that he “saved” Mohammed bin Salman’s life.

Kushner during a visit to Saudi Arabia in September. Photo: PA

Günter Meyer, director of the Center for Arab World Studies at the University of Mainz, told DW in November that Biden would have to clarify his stance. “Biden said before the elections that he would ‘rethink’ the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Such an announcement usually entails far-reaching changes,” Meyer said.

The UAE’s rulers may have less to worry about personally. But the country’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable in the event of military conflict. The ongoing war in Yemen, from which the UAE has largely withdrawn, has shown that the UAE’s rulers have little to do against unruly adversaries such as the Iran-backed Houthis. So the UAE will certainly hope to maintain good relations with the United States, which has so far provided protection.

What about Israel?

The Israeli government also faces the question of how to deal with Iran. Officials in the United States and Iran say evidence points to Israeli involvement in theassassination of famous nuclear scientistIran's Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27. There has been no official comment from the Israeli government on the matter. But if Israel's involvement in the assassination is confirmed, it could test the government's recently normalized relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan - a project encouraged by the US. Many in the region may not be willing to support a war against Iran, and certainly not guarantee Israel's security. The political consequences of such a scenario are hard to calculate!

Mr Netanyahu has had an effective relationship with the US under Trump. Photo: AA

Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would ask for US support if he were to choose full-scale military action against Iran. “Biden may be less willing to fully support Israel if Netanyahu is seen to be initiating a war,” Kampeas wrote for JTA.

These questions will likely remain unanswered until after the inauguration on January 20, 2021, when President-elect Biden clarifies his plans for the region.