Is China threatening America's position at sea?

The above assessment was just made by The Nation magazine. According to this newspaper, while the world is paying attention to the missile threat of North Korea... there is a great power rivalry taking place quietly in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Specifically, the US and Chinese navies are quietly deploying warships and establishing bases.

Chinese soldiers stand on the deck of a Chinese naval ship in Karachi, Pakistan, February 9, 2017. (Photo: Reuters)

The decline of America

Conflicts, military campaigns and cooperation… have given the US hundreds of bases around the world.

In 1947, the Philippines signed the Military Bases Agreement, granting the United States a 99-year lease on 23 military facilities. After World War II, the United States had a series of military facilities ranging from Misawa Air Base in the north to Sasebo Naval Base in southern Japan. With its strategic location, Okinawa Island has 32 active US military facilities, covering about 20% of the entire area.

As the Cold War spread to Asia in 1951, Washington concluded mutual defense treaties with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, making the Pacific coast the eastern anchor for strategic dominance over the Eurasian continent.

Washington has achieved unprecedented imperial colossus status, controlling all strategic pivot points on both ends of Eurasia.

After the Cold War, Washington elites continued to revel in their role as the world’s sole superpower. But former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski warned that America could only maintain global power as long as the eastern end of the Eurasian continent did not fuse in a way that forced the United States out of its offshore bases.

In other words, he believes that “a potential rival to the United States could emerge at some point.”

The decline of U.S. offshore bases began in 1991 when the Philippines refused to renew the lease of the U.S. Seventh Fleet base in Subic Bay. The Philippines assumed responsibility for its own defense without additional funding for its navy and air force.

Between 1990 and 1996, the US suffered a further 40% reduction in the number of surface combatants and attack submarines. Over the next two decades, the US Navy’s position in the Pacific weakened further as the focus of naval deployments shifted to wars in the Middle East. The overall size shrank another 20% (to 271 ships) and crews were under enormous deployment pressure – leaving the 7th Fleet ill-prepared to meet the unexpected Chinese challenge.

China's rise

After years of silence, a series of recent Chinese actions in Central Asia and the seas reveal a two-phase strategy that, if successful, would undercut America's ability to maintain global power.

First, China invested heavily in railway and highway systems to exploit the abundant resources of Asia and Europe, creating an economic engine to propel the country to the position of a world power. At the same time, China created an ocean-going navy, establishing its first overseas bases in the Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea.

In 2015, Beijing declared in a white paper: "The old idea that land is more important than sea must be abandoned... China needs to develop a modern maritime military power structure commensurate with its national security." And while it may find it difficult to compete with the United States, Beijing still appears determined to dominate a large swath of water around Asia, from the Horn of Africa across the Indian Ocean to North Korea.

China’s overseas base drive began quietly in 2011, when it invested more than $250 million to transform a fishing village in Gwadar, Pakistan, into a modern trading port. Four years later, China pledged $46 billion to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a network of roads, railways, and pipelines stretching 3,200 kilometers from western China to the new port in Gwadar.

Beijing avoids admitting its military aims, but in 2016 the Pakistani Navy announced it was opening a naval base in Gwadar and said Beijing was welcome to base warships there.

That same year, Beijing began building a major military facility in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, and in August 2017 opened its first official overseas base there, giving the Chinese navy access to the oil-rich Arabian Sea. Sri Lanka, off the coast of the Indian Ocean, settled a billion-dollar debt to China by ceding the strategic port of Hambantota.

Since April 2014, Beijing has escalated its bid for exclusive control of the South China Sea by expanding the Longpo base in Hainan into a home port for ballistic missile submarines. China has also secretly and illegally built a series of artificial islands in Vietnam’s Spratly Islands to create military airfields and future anchorages.

According to The Nation magazine, Beijing hopes to one day be able to "checkmate" Washington with a modern aircraft carrier fleet.

After launching its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in 2012, China has completed a second, more modern aircraft carrier capable of full-scale combat operations. China’s third aircraft carrier, expected to be launched next year, will have the ability to travel further, carry more aircraft, and have a faster launch system.