What does China expect from the US-North Korea summit?

The upcoming historic summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump is of great significance to China. Photo: Getty

The world's second-largest economy has long supported a nuclear-free North Korea, but strategists say Beijing's biggest priority is preventing the North Korean regime from collapsing under the pressure of sanctions.

For Beijing, “a proper peace deal could weaken the US-South Korea alliance, reduce the threat of conflict and a flood of refugees across the Chinese border, and ultimately lead to the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea,” said Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, a foreign policy think tank.

Ending the US military presence in South Korea, a major precondition for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's regime to give up its nuclear weapons, would be seen as reinforcing China's goal of reducing US influence in Asia.

Gregory Kulacki, a China expert with the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), a policy change advocacy group in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said Beijing and Pyongyang want to achieve the same goal at the upcoming US-North Korea summit: convincing the White House to lift sanctions on North Korea.

“China and North Korea have reached an agreement that requires the Xi Jinping administration to resume economic ties with the Kim Jong-un regime if Pyongyang halts missile and nuclear tests,” the expert explained.

However, for North Korea to open its economy a little, sanctions need to be eased, which means the US needs to make some concessions.” According to Mr. Kulacki, this scenario would be a win for both Pyongyang and Beijing.

Professor Ren Xiao, an international studies professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that China wants a “soft landing” in the upcoming US-North Korea summit, for example a denuclearized North Korea that gradually implements reform and opening up, creating momentum for economic development in the sub-region.

Meanwhile, expert Kempe warned: “If President Trump steers too well, China may have to confront a unified Korea with South Korea that is stronger, larger, and acts as a regional, democratic defense force and an ally of the United States.”

The “worst possible peace deal” for Beijing would be if the US, South Korea and North Korea formed a group or alliance, the expert said, but Xiao said “this scenario is unlikely.”