Before 'G-hour', Trump - Biden 'go all out in battleground states'

The "super speed" race

There will be no “silence” before the decisive election day on November 3 when both candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden will make every effort until the last minute to attract the last votes of voters in the battleground states - states that are considered “even a single vote counts” because of their crucial role in the final victory of any candidate.

Donald Trump (right) and Joe Biden compete fiercely in battleground states. Photo: The Guardian

Mr. Donald Trump showed great determination in winning the maximum number of electoral votes in the battleground states.

With his opponent Joe Biden ahead in most polls, Donald Trump has shown great determination to win the maximum number of electoral votes in the battleground states, repeating the image of the "red wave" that brought him victory 4 years ago. 14 rallieselection campaignIn the last 3 days - Donald Trump's schedule is likened to a "super speed" race that makes his opponents dizzy.

The places he will stop will range from the Southern states to the Midwestern states, and especially the industrial belt states in the North of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These are 3 states considered to be the Democratic Party's strongholds that he unexpectedly won from Mrs. Hillary Clinton in 2016. In addition, his "deputy" Mike Pence will also be "sent" to North Carolina, while his wife Melania will be on duty in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Donald Trump placed special importance on Pennsylvania, declaring that “if I win Pennsylvania, I win the election!” With little time left to attract new voters, President Donald Trump spent his final days aiming to reach his goal: convincing rural and working-class voters. He focused on clarifying the difference between two options, corresponding to the choice of whose name is on the ballot - Joe Biden or Donald Trump: is it socialism or free market, is it lockdown against Covid-19 or reopening, is it pouring money into expensive government programs or tax cuts, is it industries based on “outsourcing” or developing themselves with the powerful resources of the United States…

The messages Donald Trump has conveyed during his rallies reflect the strategy his team has been pushing since the summer: that Joe Biden is not a trustworthy person to lead the United States.

Former President Obama appeared next to candidate Joe Biden in Michigan. Photo: nWall Street Journal

Meanwhile, although not as intense as Donald Trump's campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden also launched a "decisive blow" in the battleground states that he wants to turn the red of 2016 into the blue of 2020: that isparallel movementBiden, who will be campaigning with former President Barack Obama in Michigan on Saturday, will hold four rallies in Pennsylvania on Sunday and Monday. Holding fewer events in key destinations is a way for Biden to highlight his approach to his opponent Donald Trump as the Covid-19 epidemic continues to spread in the United States.

His campaign message also revolved around the Democratic Party's commitment to helping the United States escape the economic and pandemic crisis, which he said was partly due to the poor handling of the Donald Trump administration. Biden's "deputy", Kamala Harris, was also sent to Florida to block Donald Trump's chances of winning there, because Florida is considered a battleground that Donald Trump must win to be able to squeeze through the "narrow door".

"Alley" vs. "Boulevard"

In this year's US election, in addition to the states that traditionally vote for Democratic or Republican candidates, there are 14 states that are considered battleground states with 208 electoral votes. However, the 6 states considered the most important to the final result are Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. These 6 states hold a total of 101 electoral votes.

The road to the White House next term between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Joe Biden is likened to an "alley" versus a "boulevard"!

The information is not very favorable for Mr. Donald Trump.pollsAll show that Mr. Joe Biden is leading in all 6 battleground states: in Michigan, Mr. Biden leads by 9 points, Wisconsin by 8 points, Pennsylvania by 7 points; 5 points in Arizona and North Carolina, and 3 points in Florida. Nationally, Mr. Donald Trump is leading Mr. Joe Biden by about 9 percentage points. Therefore, the path to the White House between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Joe Biden is likened to an "alley" versus a "highway"!

In the last 3 days, Mr. Donald Trump appeared in 4 election rallies in Pennsylvania. Photo: New York Times

For Donald Trump, many analytical models point to the principle of “Florida or bankruptcy”, meaning that Donald Trump will have very little chance of winning if he does not win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. But even if he has won the stronghold of Florida, Donald Trump still cannot collect enough 270 electoral votes, forcing him to consider the place where he has a chance to win: Pennsylvania. That is why in just the last 2 weeks before the election, he has had 7 campaigns in Pennsylvania, appearing in every corner of this extremely important battleground state.

With Florida and Pennsylvania in hand, Donald Trump's heavy task is to win in all the battleground states that he won in 2016. Except for Ohio, Trump will face many difficulties in states where voter attitudes are very complicated such as Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Iowa... With such an analytical model, Donald Trump really has too few options to move towards victory, and any mistake on that "alley" will have no chance to do it again.

On the contrary, Mr. Biden's chances of winning are much greater. The simplest way is to "go North", taking the three states that Mrs. Hillary Clinton "stumbled" in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If he can secure victory in the Democratic Party's stronghold states plus these three battleground states, Mr. Biden will have 279 electoral votes without having to win any other states that Mr. Trump won in 2016. If he loses one of the three northern states, Mr. Joe Biden can completely turn to the southwestern region with Arizona or North Carolina. The Democrats are extremely optimistic that they can win here when the Democratic Senate candidate, Mark Kelly, is very popular among voters, and that support will be transferred to support for Mr. Joe Biden.

Voters line up to cast early ballots in Annandale, Virginia on October 29. Photo: AFP

Even if he fails to win votes in Arizona and North Carolina, Mr. Biden can still make up for it with votes from states that used to lean Republican, but recent surveys show that Mr. Biden has an advantage in Georgia, Ohio, Iowa... In addition, Mr. Biden also has many other backup plans in Florida or Texas to fill the remaining votes.

However, history has proven that not every candidateleading in the pollscan all have a sure win in their hands. That is also the scenario that happened in the race between Donald Trump and Hillary 4 years ago. US presidential elections always have many surprises, and this year, Donald Trump supporters can still expect a spectacular "comeback" in the last minutes.