Before 'G hour', Trump - Biden 'go all out in battleground states'

The "super speed" race

There will be no “silence” before the decisive election day on November 3 when both candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden will make every effort until the last minute to attract the last votes of voters in the battleground states - states that are considered “just one vote counts” because of their crucial role in the final victory of any candidate.

Donald Trump (right) and Joe Biden compete fiercely in battleground states. Photo: The Guardian

Mr. Donald Trump showed great determination in winning the maximum number of electoral votes in the battleground states.

With his opponent Joe Biden leading in most polls, Donald Trump has shown great determination to win the maximum number of electoral votes in the battleground states, repeating the image of the "red wave" that brought him victory 4 years ago. 14 rallieselection campaignIn the last 3 days - Donald Trump's schedule is likened to a "super speed" race that makes his opponents dizzy.

His stops will range from the Southern states to the Midwestern states, and especially the northern industrial belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These are three states considered Democratic strongholds that he unexpectedly won from Hillary Clinton in 2016. In addition, his “deputy” Mike Pence will also be “sent” to North Carolina, while his wife Melania will be on duty in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Donald Trump placed particular importance on Pennsylvania, declaring that “if I win Pennsylvania, I win the election!” With little time left to attract new voters, President Donald Trump spent his final days aiming to reach his goal: to convince rural and working-class voters. He focused on clarifying the difference between the two options, corresponding to the choice of whose name is on the ballot - Joe Biden or Donald Trump: is it socialism or free market, is it anti-Covid-19 lockdown or reopening, is it pouring money into expensive government programs or tax cuts, is it industries based on “outsourcing” or developing themselves with the powerful resources of the United States…

The messages Donald Trump has conveyed during his rallies reflect the strategy his team has been pushing since the summer: that Joe Biden is not a trustworthy person to lead the United States.

Former President Obama appeared alongside candidate Joe Biden in Michigan. Photo: nWall Street Journal

Meanwhile, although not as intense as Donald Trump's campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden also launched a "decisive blow" in the battleground states where he wants to turn the red of 2016 into the blue of 2020: that isparallel movementalong with former President Barack Obama in Michigan on Saturday, are four rallies in Pennsylvania on Sunday and Monday. Holding fewer events in key destinations is Mr. Biden's way of highlighting his approach to his opponent Donald Trump as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to spread in the US.

His campaign message also revolves around the Democratic Party's commitment to pulling the United States out of the economic and pandemic crisis, which he says is partly due to the poor handling of the Donald Trump administration. Biden's "deputy", Kamala Harris, was also sent to Florida to block Donald Trump's chances of winning there, because Florida is considered a battleground that Donald Trump must win to be able to squeeze through the "narrow door".

"Alley" vs "Boulevard"

In this year's US election, in addition to the states that traditionally vote for Democratic or Republican candidates, there are 14 states that are considered battleground states with 208 electoral votes. However, the 6 states considered the most important to the final result are Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. These 6 states hold a total of 101 electoral votes.

The road to the White House between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is likened to an "alley" versus a "boulevard"!

The information is not very favorable for Mr. Donald Trump.pollsAll show that Mr. Joe Biden is leading in all 6 of these battleground states: in Michigan, Mr. Biden leads by 9 points, Wisconsin by 8 points, Pennsylvania by 7 points; 5 points in Arizona and North Carolina and 3 points in Florida. Nationally, Mr. Donald Trump is leading Mr. Joe Biden by about 9 percentage points. Therefore, the path to the White House between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Joe Biden is likened to an "alley" versus a "boulevard"!

In the last 3 days, Mr. Donald Trump appeared in 4 campaign rallies in Pennsylvania. Photo: New York Times

For Donald Trump, many analytical models point to the principle of “Florida or bankruptcy”, meaning that Donald Trump will have very little chance of winning if he does not win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. But even if he has won the stronghold of Florida, Donald Trump still cannot gather enough 270 electoral votes, forcing him to consider the place where he has a chance to win: Pennsylvania. That is why in just the last 2 weeks before the election, he has had 7 campaigns in Pennsylvania, appearing in every corner of this extremely important battleground state.

With Florida and Pennsylvania in hand, Donald Trump's heavy task is to win all the battleground states that he won in 2016. Except for Ohio, Trump will face many difficulties in states where voter attitudes are very complicated such as Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Iowa... With such an analytical model, Donald Trump really has too few options to move towards victory, and any mistake on that "alley" will have no chance to do it again.

On the contrary, Mr. Biden's chances of winning are much greater. The simplest way is to "go north", taking the three states that Mrs. Hillary Clinton "stumbled" in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If he secures victory in the Democratic Party's stronghold states plus these three battleground states, Mr. Biden will have 279 electoral votes without having to win any other state that Mr. Trump won in 2016. If he loses one of the three northern states, Mr. Biden can completely turn to the southwestern region with Arizona or North Carolina. The Democrats are extremely optimistic that they can win here when the Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is very popular among voters, and that support will be transferred to support for Mr. Joe Biden.

Voters line up to cast early ballots in Annandale, Virginia on October 29. Photo: AFP

Even if he fails to win votes in Arizona and North Carolina, Mr. Biden can still make up for it with votes from states that used to lean Republican, but recent surveys show that Mr. Biden has advantages in Georgia, Ohio, Iowa... In addition, Mr. Biden also has many other backup plans in Florida or Texas to fill the remaining votes.

However, history has shown that not every candidateleading in the pollscan all be sure to win. That is also the scenario that happened in the race between Donald Trump and Hillary 4 years ago. US presidential elections always have many surprises, and this year, Donald Trump supporters can still expect a spectacular "comeback" in the last minutes.