From Singapore to Hanoi: Expect unexpected progress!

Eight months after the first Conference held in Singapore last June, this Conference is predicted by experts to have a high possibility of unexpected progress, the only question is to what extent.

From symbol to substance

Surely public opinion still cannot forget the historic event on June 12, 2018, when US President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un held their first historic meeting at the first summit in Singapore.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump met in Singapore in June 2018. Photo: Getty

Responding to public expectations at that time, the two sides issued a Joint Statement outlining priority areas, such as the two countries will establish new relations for peace and prosperity; the two sides will together build a stable, lasting peace on the Korean peninsula or carry out denuclearization of the Korean peninsula...

This joint statement created an opportunity for the two governments to begin working together to promote bilateral relations as well as the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula.

Since the following July, shuttle visits and bilateral meetings at all levels have been conducted, including a series of meetings between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and senior officials of the DPRK.

Such as the meeting between Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Kim Yong Chol, the person appointed by North Korean President Kim Jong Un to be in charge of contacts with the US side on the issue of denuclearization in Pyongyang.

Or the meeting between Secretary Pompeo and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho at the United Nations General Assembly. At these meetings, the parties actively considered the next steps and the discussion process between the two governments...

A series of other positive events also took place in early 2019, starting with Chairman Kim Jong Un's New Year's speech, which emphasized Pyongyang's commitment to denuclearization and the modernization of the North Korean economy.

However, looking at the results of this series of diplomatic moves, public opinion has probably not seen any significant progress in either US-North Korea relations or the roadmap for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Even according to the US side, North Korea's actions are still not enough to demonstrate its willingness to completely denuclearize in exchange for security commitments from Washington.

A North Korean military officer (left) and a South Korean military officer shake hands during an operation to connect a road across the military demarcation line inside the inter-Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) on November 22. Photo: Reuters

Meanwhile, negotiations between the two sides have not actually made much progress, because both the US and North Korea have not been able to agree on the concept of "complete denuclearization".

In practice, for the US so far, “complete denuclearization” has meant “complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement” of North Korea’s weapons program.

As for North Korea, this term includes the withdrawal of US military threats from the region. Therefore, more than ever, the second Summit in Hanoi is expected to bring an open atmosphere, helping the parties to make new progress in the negotiation process, creating favorable conditions for the roadmap to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.

This also means that this will be an opportunity to turn the “symbolic handshake” at the first Summit in 2018 in Singapore into substantive progress at the second Summit in Hanoi.

Well-founded expectations

It is no coincidence that public opinion from countries such as North Korea, the US, Japan, South Korea and China, as well as international observers and experts, all expressed optimism about the prospects of the second US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi.

For North Korea, President Kim Jong Un, with his goals and commitments to develop and innovate the country's economy and society after more than six decades of embargo, is perhaps more eager than ever to express goodwill.

A series of flexible statements, concessions, and de-escalation moves by Pyongyang in recent times have shown this determination from North Korea.

Politburo member and Head of the Central Propaganda Department Vo Van Thuong shakes hands with Chairman Kim Jong-un as he steps off the armored train. Photo: Nhat Bac/baochinhphu.vn

Because once new progress is made in negotiations with the US, economic sanctions will gradually be lifted. This is one of the prerequisites for North Korea to open up and carry out national renewal.

Meanwhile, for the US, the trade war with China or internal issues are becoming the driving force for President Donald Trump to make diplomatic progress in the dialogue process with North Korea, to gain points with domestic voters.

Not only that, if any progress is achieved, it will more or less affirm President Trump's political prestige. Because he will become the first US leader to achieve breakthroughs in relations with North Korea, and at the same time, possibly end one of the remaining "legacies" of the Cold War. This is clearly an advantage that creates momentum for the important US presidential election that will take place in 2020.

With so many goals and motivations, experts predict that many specific contents will be discussed in detail by the parties at this second summit.

First of all, there must be a consensus on the concept of denuclearization, which is still very different between the US and North Korea. Next, there must be a specific roadmap for denuclearization.

For example, the corresponding measures that both sides need to take to simultaneously ease sanctions and gradually denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

According to analysts, there will even be surprises at the second Summit, which could be a declaration to end the Korean War (1950 - 1953).

Chairman of Hanoi People's Committee Nguyen Duc Chung welcomed and presented flowers to North Korean President Kim Jong-un at Melia Hotel. Photo: Nhat Bac/baochinhphu.vn

If that is truly achieved, this will be the best stepping stone for both sides to build trust, eliminate deep suspicions, and create favorable conditions for the next negotiation process.

Obviously, this is the expectation not only of the parties involved but also of the peace-loving international community. Therefore, despite cautious optimism, the second US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi is being assessed as bringing a “strong push” to the peace process and complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula./.