General Cuong: 'The world picture will be patchy, but still under control'

(Baonghean) - From the perspective of long-term international research, Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong - former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security, commented that the world in 2017 will be a patchy color, Brownian motion (chaos) but controlled.

PV:Can you give a brief forecast of the world economic situation in 2017?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In 2017, there were three major factors affecting the world economy. The first, and most important, was the domestic and foreign policies of US President Donald Trump. He clearly stated his goal during his four years in office was to restore the greatness of America. To do that, Trump implemented a series of new domestic and foreign policies, completely different from his predecessor Barack Obama.

Regarding the economy, Trump will focus on restoring American manufacturing, encouraging large American corporations and companies abroad to return to invest domestically, creating jobs for workers. It can be said that Trump has a tendency towards trade protectionism, going against the trend of free trade in the world.

US President Donald Trump's domestic and foreign policies will impact many aspects of the world. Photo: AFP

In December 2016, Mr. Trump announced that the first thing he would do when he entered the White House was to withdraw the US from the TPP Agreement and indeed he did so. He also affirmed that he would review the entire draft of the TTIP Agreement, the North American Multilateral Economic Agreement, etc. If Trump implements 40-50% of his commitments in the "roadmap" year of 2017, the US economy will have significant changes, the world economy will move in a centrifugal direction - globalization will be challenged.

I think this year will see more development of bilateral and regional partnerships, but note that Trump is not against globalization and free trade. Trump is only allowed to adjust the US economy within the inevitable objective trend of globalization and free trade.

Second, we must take into account the Brexit factor. Although Brexit negotiations began in 2017 and are expected to last until 2019, they will certainly have a significant impact on the global economy.

Third, it is the price of oil. In 2016, OPEC reached an agreement to cut production for the first time, Russia and some non-OPEC countries also agreed to cut production, etc. Most likely, in 2017, oil prices will not fall any lower, although it will be difficult to increase much. It can be generally predicted that 2017 will be the year when the world economy is shrinking, waiting, if there is a big change, it will have to wait until 2018 - 2019, when Trump's economic policy is revealed and affects the world.

PV:On the world political and security stage, what are your comments on the US-EU trans-Atlantic relationship and the US-Japan-Korea trans-Pacific triangle?

Major General Le Van Cuong:During his campaign for the US presidency, Trump repeatedly declared that NATO was an outdated organization, and that the US would no longer provide security for anyone “for free”. This made the EU worried, and they held separate meetings to discuss the establishment of a fund to support the bloc’s defense development.

For Japan and South Korea, the two most important allies in the Pacific, Trump also declared that they did not fulfill their responsibility in financially supporting the US military stationed there, asking them to spend more on defense.

So, the two transatlantic relationships have been shaken by President Trump’s announcement. But I don’t think we should worry too much! The NATO transatlantic military alliance will never disintegrate, the American elite will not allow it to happen, and Trump will not cross the “red line”.

But he will certainly ask European countries to spend more money on defense, easing the burden of America's financial responsibility.

US relations with Russia and China have received much public attention under Trump. Photo: Internet

The US-Japan-Korea triangle is also the “backbone” of Asia-Pacific, so Trump will also demand the same thing, but this alliance cannot be broken. In fact, Trump has no right to do that, this is the consistent policy of US presidents, also in line with the election declaration of “Restoring America’s Greatness” that he made.

PV:So, with the two major power relationships, the US - China and the US - Russia, what is your prediction, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:After all, the world situation depends on the ups and downs of these two relationships. If Trump's declaration during the election campaign was followed, public opinion would believe that in the next 4 years, relations with Russia would improve, even recover. But I think differently, in the last months of Obama's term, the US-Russia relationship was close to the Cold War.

I think that in 2017 in particular and in the next 4 years in general, we can only confirm that this relationship will not be worse than in 2016, because the Washington elite will find it difficult to accept the immediate restoration of relations with Moscow. Therefore, there are "red lines" that Trump will not easily overcome in his relationship with Russia.

The US-China relationship is still an unknown. Economically, I believe that during Trump's four years in office, the relationship between the two countries will be tense, because Trump is very dissatisfied, believing that China is devaluing its currency, affecting the interests of the US and other countries. Politically and security-wise, this relationship will not collapse, there will be no crisis, thanks to the policy adjustments of the Chinese leadership, at least from the economic perspective.

PV:Where will other hot spots such as the fight against IS, the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, the Iran nuclear deal with P5+1, etc. go in the near future, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:On hot spots, Trump’s views are clearly different from those of his predecessors. It is unclear how the 45th US President will adjust relations with Russia, but he has said he would cooperate with Putin to resolve the conflict in Syria.

It is also worth noting that Trump believes that in Syria, the priority should be to fight IS first, and to eliminate the al-Assad regime second. If the fight against IS cannot be resolved, then there is no need to talk about restoring peace in the Middle East. In terms of strategy and global politics, this is a reasonable view, consistent with Russia's.

With the 70-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump is inclined to support Israel, unlike his predecessor Obama. The Israeli Prime Minister also had an excited phone call saying that the period of prosperous development of relations with the US has been restored.

Regarding the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 group, Trump also does not share the same views as Obama. If Trump reconsiders this agreement and deviates it, I think it will lead to unpredictable consequences in the region. With the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula - the most complicated and difficult-to-solve hot spot today, it will be difficult to see positive changes in 2017.

PV:What is your comment to public opinion that the world in the next 4 years will fall into a spiral of chaos and instability when Trump leads the number 1 superpower?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It is true that many people think so, but there are also opinions that the next 4 years is the time to rearrange the world into a new, more stable order. From a long-term research perspective, I believe that since 1991, the power correlation between the key countries has remained relatively stable. The global situation is created from this correlation, and now or in the next 4 years, the economic order will not have any significant changes.

In terms of politics and security, the US-Russia-China power balance has not changed dramatically, and the US alone cannot change that balance from now until 2021. Although it must be said that the world is currently facing an unstable picture, some say the world is infinite, others say it is not multipolar, and even assert that the world is moving in Brownian (chaotic) motion!

But the world order will not change under Trump, only all countries will have to adjust many aspects to protect their interests. The world picture will be a patchwork of colors, with conflicts and also peace and cooperation, and everything is still under control.

PV:Thank you very much, Major General.

Thu Giang

(Perform)