General Cuong: 'There are 'undercurrents' under the East Sea'

(Baonghean.vn) - After a year whenThe Permanent Court of Arbitration of the United NationsDespite losing to the Philippines in the East Sea lawsuit, China continues to quietly pursue its aspiration to dominate the East Sea.

Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong.

Situation in the East Sea in the first 6 months of 2017

Discussing the East Sea issue, Associate Professor, Dr., Major General Le Van Cuong, former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy, Ministry of Public Security, commented that the situation in the East Sea in the first 6 months of 2017 was relatively quiet, without any tense clashes. The Major General explained the silence because Beijing had almost completed the construction of infrastructure and militarization of disputed areas in the East Sea and was ready for the next military plans. Specifically, since the end of 2016, China has brought MiG-27 and MiG-29 fighter jets, deployed 2 HQ-9 air defense missile batteries to Phu Lam Island, in Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago; or completed the construction of 3 large military airports with runways up to 3,4000m long, a military port on Gac Ma Island, and installed 4 high-frequency radar systems on Chau Vien Island in Vietnam's Truong Sa archipelago.

Second, after the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) under the 1992 Convention on the Law of the Sea, rejecting China's unreasonable claims to sovereignty over the nine-dash line, in the face of strong reactions from the international community, China has chosen to remain silent and not provoke any further, in order to somewhat calm down and avoid being boycotted by the world.

China's ambition to revive the Silk Road through the 21st Century Belt and Road initiative. Graphic: Reuters

Third, China is focusing on promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative, as this is the country's ambitious super strategy.The entire “Belt and Road” connects East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. China wants to become the “ruler” of this Eurasian continent with the ambition that 60 countries located on this vital route depend on China economically, and from there, politically and diplomatically.The modern “Silk Road” project focuses on building road, rail and sea infrastructure, air routes, oil pipelines, power lines, and telecommunications systems to enhance inter-regional connectivity. Therefore, China does not provoke any aggression in the East Sea.

Finally, China is testing the waters with the new administration of Donald Trump, how far he will go on the East Sea issue, whether he will maintain the strong commitment as under Obama or not and to what extent, no one knows yet.

But this is only a temporary lull, because this is China's new tactic. This country actively avoids causing any noise or fuss that leads to criticism on the ground and focuses on other issues.

"Waves under the sea"

Although on the "surface" the situation in the East Sea seems to be calming down, Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong said: "In fact, on the "downstairs" there are fierce undercurrents." Accordingly, China is quietly and resolutely realizing its mastery of the East Sea.

The Major General said that despite Vietnam's protests against China's unreasonable invasion of Vietnam's territorial waters, a series of activities and events were organized by China, such as: celebrating the 5th anniversary of the establishment of Sansha city; promoting tourism activities in Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago; exploiting combustible ice in the East Sea; conducting large-scale scientific surveys with 400 scientists from 13 countries in the two archipelagos of Truong Sa and Hoang Sa. In particular, China brazenly amended the Law on Maritime Traffic Safety, requiring all ships passing through the East Sea to receive permission from this country. This is a serious violation of the International Convention on the Law of the Sea.

A Chinese HQ-9 air defense missile system.

"Even more dangerous, China also sent 40 military fishing vessels, coast guard ships, and military aircraft to pressure Vietnam to withdraw the drilling rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone," Major General Le Van Cuong added.

In the media sector, in the first 6 months of 2017, China spent more than 1.5 billion USD on propaganda about the East Sea, including publishing books in Japanese with distorted content about the history of the East Sea; launching the China-ASEAN Young Scholars Fund to provide scholarships for all ASEAN youth who want to research the East Sea...

Stay alert and avoid being influenced

General Le Van Cuong said that the second half of 2017 will be full of fluctuations and unpredictability in the world. For example, China is only concerned and observing the US's behavior in the East Sea, but in reality, the Donald Trump administration is still "stuck" with a series of unstable issues within the US and the world. Other powers such as Russia and Japan have repeatedly voiced their opposition to China's actions in the East Sea, but have not yet shown any concrete actions. In addition, ASEAN countries are still divided on the East Sea issue. "Thus, these contexts will create favorable conditions for China to "widen its actions" in the East Sea, realizing its desire to dominate" - Major General affirmed.

Predicting the situation in the last 6 months of 2017, Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong commented that China's behavior in the East Sea will be divided into 2 stages: before and after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The Major General analyzed that before each Congress, there are 2 possibilities: either China will keep "calm" or "make waves". Observations show that before major political events, Beijing often makes moves to cause disputes in the East Sea, in order to demonstrate the strength of the incumbent leaders in protecting the nation's sovereignty. "Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that China will cause new fluctuations, as "a gift to the Congress".

The Major General further analyzed that China will prevent the intervention of the Donald Trump administration in the East Sea by creating conditions for North Korea to continue developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. "Clearly, in the North Korea issue, China plays an active role, and the US must rely on China to solve it. Thus, North Korea is the "bargaining card" that China will use to reduce US intervention in the East Sea."

General Cuong added that, based on the geographical location and importance of the Southeast Asian region, China will focus on strengthening its friendly relations with ASEAN, especially with countries with interests in the East Sea. Through economic cooperation, it will create a friendly atmosphere with developed countries in ASEAN, thereby putting more and more pressure on Vietnam in the coming time.

In such a context, Associate Professor Dr. Le Van Cuong said that Vietnam needs to be alert, promote and request China to implement the agreed commitments. Especially the 6 principles and 4 joint statements between the two countries' high-ranking officials in resolving disputes in the East Sea based on international law and respecting the independence and sovereignty of the parties.

The Major General affirmed: "Vietnam is not alone. We have all the conditions to protect our rights and interests in the East Sea, and this is fully supported by the international community. The core issue is that Vietnam needs to create new positions and forces to combine national strength and the strength of the times, taking advantage of the consensus of the international community to express Vietnam's viewpoint on peaceful development and protecting legitimate rights and interests in the East Sea."

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