General Cuong predicts 3 'hot spots' in 2020 in the East Asia - West Pacific region
(Baonghean) - East Asia - West Pacific is one of the most important economic - geopolitical regions in the world. This is a region with great powers such as China, Japan, South Korea, India and of course Vietnam. The forecast for the situation in the East Asia - West Pacific region in 2020 also predicts the development of Vietnam in relation to countries in this region. Nghe An Newspaper interviewed Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Strategy of the Ministry of Public Security on this issue.
PV:Major General Le Van Cuong, in your opinion, what role does the East Asia - West Pacific region play in the current context of the world?
Major General Le Van Cuong:In the world's economic and political chessboard, it can be said that there is no region as special as East Asia - West Pacific. Here converge the three largest economies of the world: China, Japan and South Korea. In addition, according to forecasts, by 2030, India will be the third largest economy in the world. In terms of politics and security, East Asia - West Pacific is also the place where all the most important factors shaping the world's political and security landscape converge. Through the US-China relationship - the most important bilateral relationship - it affects the entire political and security landscape of the world in the third decade of the 21st century.
There are also three special hot spots in the region: the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the China-Taiwan issue, and the East Sea issue. These are the longest-standing and most difficult issues to resolve on an international scale. The hot spots in the region directly impact Vietnam in terms of economics, politics, security, and foreign affairs.
PV:What is the Major General's forecast for this area in 2020?
Major General Le Van Cuong:In terms of the region's economy, we must first discuss the economies of China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and India. Among the major economies of East Asia - West Pacific, in my opinion, India is a brighter spot, capable of maintaining a growth rate of 5 - 6% in 2020.
2020 is a pivotal year for the Chinese economy. The US-China trade war has made China more aware of both the strengths and weaknesses of its economy. This can also be called China's year of adjustment. Therefore, the country will not fall into a crisis, but there will be no development either.
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| The top 4 economies in the East Asia - West Pacific region: China - South Korea - Japan - India. |
Japan's economy in 2020 is still in a state of stagnation. The Korean and Indonesian economies will have new developments but there will be no breakthroughs. Therefore, the general picture of the East Asia - West Pacific economy in 2020 is a year in a state of finding a way out of stagnation, without new developments but not falling into crisis.
That is the general picture of the East Asia - West Pacific economy and Vietnam is an important part of this picture. We try to maintain a growth rate of around 7%. Besides the challenges, 2020 is a great opportunity for Vietnam to develop its economy. The most important condition is that we can attract more FDI investment into Vietnam. Large capitalist corporations from the US and Japan will invest more in Vietnam. Those are opportunities, but we also face challenges from the US - China trade war in 2020.
In terms of politics and security, the focus is on the confrontation between the US and China. In 2020, President Donald Trump focused on the US election, so security issues in the Western Pacific region did not have any turning points. China's difficulty, in my opinion, is the impact of the 2020 election in Taiwan. This election has a huge impact on the security of both sides in the region, but there will be no major clashes.
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| Ballistic missile test launch from an undisclosed location in North Korea on July 31, 2019. Photo: AFP/TTXVN |
As for the Korean Peninsula, I believe that the opportunity to resolve the nuclear and ballistic missile issues has passed. President Donald Trump has little chance of mending relations with North Korea. Therefore, it is likely that the North Korean hot spot in 2020 will be worse than in 2019. And I am afraid that after the US presidential election (November 2020), the US-North Korea relationship will fall into a new spiral. Both sides missed the best opportunity in 2019.
Regarding the East Sea, based on history and US-China relations, there will be no breakthroughs in 2020. It must also be said objectively that the problems occurring in the East Sea mainly originate from China. And perhaps I think that in 2020 China will not do anything to stir up more waves, but that does not mean that the East Sea will be peaceful. Vietnam is particularly concerned about Tu Chinh Shoal - the throat of the East Sea. Tu Chinh Shoal lies entirely within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, 160 nautical miles from Vung Tau, while it is 600 nautical miles from Hainan Island (China).
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| Major General Le Van Cuong interviewed by Nghe An Newspaper. |
Therefore, in terms of international law, specifically the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, Tu Chinh Shoal has nothing to do with China's exclusive economic zone. Vietnam has sovereignty and jurisdiction over Tu Chinh Shoal, because Tu Chinh is located within Vietnam's 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. In 2020, Tu Chinh Shoal is expected to continue to be the center of the East Sea issue. We need to be extremely alert on the principles of international law, peaceful measures, through dialogue to fight to protect national sovereignty and jurisdiction in the East Sea in general and Tu Chinh Shoal in particular.
PV:How do the things the Major General just mentioned affect Vietnam?
Major General Le Van Cuong:All the events taking place in East Asia - West Pacific are basically favorable, including opportunities, but we must also be very careful. Because the three hot spots in the region are all related to each other and are actually related to China and the US. We need to monitor and be alert to every step of these two powers so as not to be passive.
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| US aircraft carrier heads towards the Korean peninsula. Photo: Reuters |
On the economic front, we have many opportunities but also many challenges. On the security front, there are great opportunities but also many risks and challenges. We must not be subjective and need to prepare plans according to possible scenarios.
However, in my opinion, 2020 is a favorable year for Vietnam. Vietnam became a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and the rotating chairman of ASEAN. We believe that in 2020, Vietnam will successfully resolve both domestic and foreign affairs, continuing to enhance Vietnam's role and position in the region in particular and the world in general.
PV:Thank you, Major General!
