General Cuong: US - North Korea may meet this fall

To clarify this "earth-shattering" event that has attracted the attention of the whole world, Nghe An Newspaper interviewed Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security.

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Getty

PV:Major General, what is your opinion on the reason why President Trump recently suddenly canceled the summit with leader Kim Jong-un?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In a personal statement, US President Donald Trump said that due to recent hostile statements and attitudes towards the US by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, he decided to cancel the meeting.

Is that the real reason? In my opinion, it is probably just Trump's way of speaking. The underlying reason lies in the fact that the Donald Trump administration is still not satisfied, or rather, lacks confidence in the results of the meeting with Kim. Up to now, Trump has declared dozens of times that he will meet and force Kim Jong-un to give up North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. But it seems that, in recent days, the possibility of using the summit to make Pyongyang do what Trump expected has been considered by many to be a distant illusion! When he could not see positive results from the meeting, Trump decided to cancel it.

In addition, there is another reason that prompted Mr. Trump to announce the cancellation of the summit with the North Korean leader. During his 8 years in power, former US President Barack Obama repeatedly refused to meet Mr. Kim Jong-un. Now, Mr. Trump is the one who often "does the opposite" of what his predecessor did, meeting people that Obama did not want to meet. But if the meeting with Mr. Kim fails, all the "hammer and axe" of public opinion will fall on Trump and pose a risk of making him lose prestige before the Americans in particular and the international community in general. It can be said that canceling the appointment is a wise diplomatic tactic of the White House owner, to "buy time", test the reaction of the American and world elites, of allies and friends.

If that is true, Donald Trump has succeeded, when the sudden decision to cancel the meeting with Mr. Kim has caused the US Congress, especially the Democrats, as well as public opinion in the country, friends and allies around the world to voice their opposition or regret. With that "test", whether or not Mr. Trump meets Mr. Kim in the future, and whether or not the meeting is successful, Trump still does not have to take responsibility.

North Korea on May 24 used explosives to destroy its nuclear test site, showing goodwill towards a summit with Trump. Photo: RT

PV:After Trump's sudden cancellation letter, contrary to many people's expectations, North Korea has so far given a rather soft response. How do you explain this attitude of Pyongyang?

Major General Le Van Cuong:On May 24, North Korea demolished a nuclear test site in front of many international journalists, a positive and responsible expression of Pyongyang in preparation for the Kim-Trump meeting. Just a few hours later, Trump made the sudden announcement, so it is understandable if the world public thinks that North Korea will react strongly and harshly, because Kim Jong-un has really prepared for the meeting, not only in words but also through actions.

But on the contrary, on the morning of May 25, the North Korean side gave a response that I considered serious, gentle and appropriate: Pyongyang expressed regret at Trump's statement, while still leaving open the possibility of a meeting at any time, in any form, without any conditions. It can be affirmed that the North Korean leader more than ever truly wants to meet the US President, even though he knows that it may not solve any problems.

Why is that? Because if the Trump-Kim summit takes place anywhere, with whatever content and outcome, then the role and position of North Korea in the region and the world as well as the prestige of Mr. Kim Jong-un domestically as well as in the international community will certainly be enhanced. Obviously, it is extremely important for North Korea to be on par with the US superpower, with the leaders of Pyongyang and Washington sitting on equal footing. Based on such a reason, Pyongyang's gentle, responsible and appropriate response is completely understandable.

Major General Le Van Cuong. Photo courtesy

PV:Up to this point, Mr. Trump himself in his letter has left open the possibility of meeting the North Korean leader when conditions permit. On the other side, Pyongyang also affirmed that it continues to prepare for a bilateral summit to take place at any time. According to the Major General, is it possible for the Trump-Kim meeting to take place in the near future?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It is true that both sides are currently leaving open the possibility of meeting each other. On the US side, after the "test" of canceling the summit on June 12 in Singapore, Mr. Trump has enough basis and "capital" to go to the meeting with Mr. Kim. This time, Mr. Trump is completely confident because whether the meeting is successful or not, it will go down in American history. The White House owner will not have to take responsibility, will not lose prestige when Congress, the American people, even Europe and friends around the world are all looking forward to the meeting. Therefore, I think President Trump still wants to meet the North Korean leader.

After the "test" of canceling the summit on June 12 in Singapore, Trump had enough basis and "capital" to go to the meeting with Mr. Kim.

On the other hand, as has been affirmed, Mr. Kim Jong-un really wants to have a summit with Trump. Even if it does not solve any problems, it will successfully put Pyongyang on an equal footing with the world's number 1 power.

With both sides having the same aspirations, a Trump-Kim meeting will certainly still take place, even though the June 12 summit was canceled. Personally, I think this meeting will take place in the fall of this year, and the best location is still Singapore.

A group of protesters in Seoul, South Korea on May 25 after President Trump announced the cancellation of the US-North Korea summit. Photo: CNN

PV:If your prediction is correct, how will the situation on the Korean Peninsula develop from now until the upcoming meeting, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Both Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump really want this meeting, and so the North Korean side will try to restrain itself, not making hostile words and actions towards the US, nor taking actions to "heat up" the Korean Peninsula like what we witnessed in 2017.

On the contrary, with the US, from now until the time the meeting can take place, there will be no provocative actions that will make Kim Jong-un angry or upset.

In other words, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will be relatively calm in the coming period, without any sudden problems in a bad direction. There may be lower-level meetings between the US and North Korea, and even preparatory meetings between South Korea and North Korea, in an effort to complete the necessary work to move towards the summit this fall.