General Cuong assesses the challenges awaiting Donald Trump

(Baonghean) - Donald Trump - the 45th President of the United States is the most watched figure on the world political stage. To better understand the next owner of the White House, the domestic and foreign policies of the United States as well as the relationship with Vietnam in the coming time, Nghe An Newspaper had an interview with Associate Professor, Dr. Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security.

PV:Major General, the results of the US presidential election with the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump has inevitably shocked public opinion. As someone who closely followed the developments of this major event, were you surprised? How can we explain Trump's victory?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Before the election, I thought that the chances of victory for the two candidates were so close that it was hard to say for sure. Therefore, Donald Trump's victory did not surprise me.

But really, I did not expect that Mr. Trump would win by such a large margin over Mrs. Hillary, more than 70 electoral votes. If the above number was only 5-7 votes, that would be completely within my imagination, but the reality was extremely surprising, even many great politicians in the world had similar opinions.

And so, for the first time in American history, a pure businessman, with no political experience, ran for office, with shocking statements but became President, creating the "Donald Trump phenomenon". It must be seen that, during the 2015 - 2016 election period, America fell into a serious crisis. There were deep cracks in society, the people of this country no longer put their trust in the elite, thinking that they "talk a lot but do little".

Donald Trump shakes hands with his “deputy” Mike Pence at the election celebration event in New York early morning 9/11 (US time). Photo: Thestar.

Even among the elite, the parties are disunited and divided, with the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in fierce confrontation. In the context of a deep political and social crisis, the name Donald Trump appeared, an inevitable result of voters' demands for a society that cannot but change. The Donald Trump phenomenon is an objective reflection of the urgent needs of voters and American society, and is most clearly demonstrated in the election results.

In other words, if American society were stable and united, the real estate billionaire's campaign probably wouldn't have gone so far.

PV:In your opinion, what are the domestic challenges that Donald Trump will face after taking office as US President in early 2017?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The biggest challenge for Donald Trump is to heal the deep rift in American society, and if he fails to do this, all of the new President's economic and social policies will not be as effective as expected.

As for the economy, by 2016, the US had escaped the bottom of the crisis but development was still sluggish, public debt reached 20,000 billion USD, posing a big challenge that whether Trump wanted it or not, he had to make an effort to solve.

Portrait of the 45th President of the United States Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters.

In addition, the issue of immigration, which entails the risk of terrorist attacks, also requires due attention to ease the insecurity and fear in the American community. If the immigration issue is not handled carefully, it will affect international relations, so there is no doubt that this is also the focus of Trump's domestic agenda when he officially enters the White House.

Predictably, Mr. Trump will promise to heal the wounds in American society through economic development policies, such as raising taxes on the rich, creating social security sources, and protecting workers' rights.

He will carry out a series of policies, especially in the financial and banking sector, asking the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, renegotiate trade agreements, etc. Thus, domestically, Mr. Trump will have a number of new policies with strong populist colors.

PV:So what will President Trump's foreign policy focus on, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Regarding the great legacies that the Obama administration carved into American history, such as calling for a world without nuclear weapons and fighting climate change, I believe Donald Trump will continue. Regarding the issue of climate change, Mr. Trump currently holds a completely different view from Mr. Obama, but I think there will be adjustments.

In particular, regarding major power relations, public opinion believes that in the next four years under Trump, US-Russia relations will gradually improve, no longer as tense as in the past. As for China, tensions will mainly be in the economic field, while in terms of defense and security, US-China relations are not expected to have any special developments.

Donald Trump souvenirs are on sale. Photo: NYT.

America’s allies are now fearful that Trump’s nationalist rhetoric about serving America wholeheartedly and reducing his involvement in international affairs will become a reality when he enters the White House. During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly asserted that he would ask NATO allies to spend more on defense, and asked Japan and South Korea to pay more to ensure the stationing of US troops.

Thus, although not openly expressed, it can be seen that Europe and Japan and South Korea are feeling uneasy when facing the reality that Trump will adjust relations with them in the direction of reducing commitments, directly affecting the threats hanging over their heads.

But whatever is said, the above adjustment cannot go too far, because the US-Japan-Korea and US-Europe alliances are still pillars in Washington's foreign policy, and no president dares to ignore them.

For current international hot spots such as the Korean Peninsula, Syria, Eastern Ukraine, etc., perhaps Trump will “join hands” with leading partners such as Russia and China to resolve them. Regarding terrorism, the new President’s views are very strong, so I think Mr. Trump will cooperate closely with Moscow to resolve the Syrian conflict at its root and eliminate radical Islam.

PV:Will the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia-Pacific, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), lose its current position under Trump? What is your prediction for the Vietnam-US relationship in the coming years?

Mr. Trump's landslide victory over his opponent, Mrs. Clinton, surprised many people. Photo: Internet.

Major General Le Van Cuong:It is true that many people worry that under the new President, the US will no longer “pivot”, but this is unfounded. In 10 years of being bogged down in the war on terror, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the role of the US in the world has seriously declined. Right in the Asia-Pacific, the key region of the 21st century, the strategic interests of the US face enormous challenges, making Obama determined to pivot, in order to regain the US’s dominant role in the world and the region.

This policy is not temporary, but will last for decades. No president dares to “turn away” from this strategy, because doing so means breaking with American interests. Under Trump, the “pivot” will still happen, although perhaps with a slightly different speed, scale, and mobilization force than under the Obama administration.

Regarding Vietnam-US relations, after many years of normalization, in 2013, Vietnam and the US affirmed a comprehensive partnership, in line with the interests of both sides and creating a framework for bilateral relations. In the next 4 years when Donald Trump takes power, the US and Vietnam will certainly still need each other in the fields of economy, education, security - defense, etc.

I think there will be no major changes in the relationship between Vietnam and the US. If anything, when Trump gives the highest priority to the economic sector, it is likely that trade in goods and services from Vietnam to the US will have to meet more stringent conditions. And so, Vietnamese businesses, especially in the fields of seafood and agricultural products, must have the necessary preparations to adapt to the new situation.

Thu Giang

(Perform)