What does the future hold for IS?

(Baonghean.vn) - With the loss of most of its territory at its main bases in the Middle East, the future of the Islamic State (IS) seems clearer than ever. However, the terrorist group still occupies large areas of land in Iraq and Syria, especially in border regions.

ISIS celebrates after seizing an Iraqi military vehicle in Fallujah, Iraq in 2014. Photo: AP

Counterterrorism expert Tomas Olivier believes that despite facing open conflict in Iraq and Syria, ISIS can still operate terrorist branches outside the region, such as in North Africa, Europe, Southeast Asia, East Africa, and West Africa.

The expert stated: "The most unsettling reality about the IS terrorist group today is its flexibility in responding, even after being defeated, as they appear capable of establishing a series of terrorist branches operating throughout the Western Hemisphere with the ability to carry out attacks 'on command' or based on ideological incitement."

This former senior official at the Dutch Ministry of Defence emphasized: "IS is focusing on intensifying 'lone wolf' attacks in the West and targeting international coalition objectives worldwide, from the streets of Manchester (England) to Marawi (Philippines)."

Since the rise of IS in 2014, more than 5,000 European citizens have traveled to the Middle East to fight for the jihadist group. With IS losing vast swathes of territory in the region, the international community has warned of a wave of foreign fighters returning home to Europe and elsewhere.

In fact, many IS members who carried out attacks in Europe had a history of petty crimes, such as Berlin attack suspect Anis Amri or Salah Abdeslam, who is believed to have been a courier for the terrorist group that attacked Paris in late 2015.

French police patrol the Stade de France stadium after the deadly attacks in Paris in 2015. Photo: AP

According to Ian Oxnevad, a Middle East scholar at the University of California, one counterterrorism strategy to deal with the problem of returning foreign fighters is to push them into criminal activities by controlling their financial networks.

The expert said: "For example, if there are fighters who previously fought for IS in a terrorist branch in northern Italy, but all the money they used to finance terrorism wasn't integrated into the financial system, then they are obligated to maintain that fund. That would be a crime."

Expert Oxnevad notes that even if this terrorist group is "completely eliminated," it does not mean that the extremist ideology that has been widely disseminated will disappear, especially based on the declaration by former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to restore the "Islamic State" in Mosul in 2014.

Lan Ha

(According to DW)