General Le Van Cuong predicts the terms of trade-off between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump

Pv:Major General, can you explain why North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un did not officially invite US President Donald Trump to meet through direct diplomatic channels between the two countries, but instead sent the invitation through the special envoy of South Korean President Moon Jae-in? Will there be a meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump in May?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It is true that Kim Jong-un did not publicly announce an invitation to meet Donald Trump, but instead sent a message through President Moon Jae-in's special envoy. I think this is a rather clever and discreet diplomatic move. If Kim Jong-un publicly invited US President Donald Trump to meet, what if Donald Trump did not accept?

Second, with an unofficial invitation, Mr. Kim Jong-un still has enough time to probe the reactions of parties such as China, Russia... Not inviting officially and publicly but sending a message through someone else is a smart diplomatic measure, knowing how to advance and retreat.

Pv:In your opinion, is there a definite guarantee that there will be a meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump this May?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Photo BBC

Major General Le Van Cuong:At this point, it is impossible to say for sure that there will be a meeting, but in my opinion, the possibility is only 50/50. If from now until May, Donald Trump himself and his close associates do not make any statements that offend Kim Jong-un. And the US-South Korea military exercises take place within the scope and scale that Kim Jong-un sees as not directly threatening. That is, if there is nothing extraordinary, then the meeting can happen, but if there is just one mistake, a US official makes a statement that offends Kim Jong-un, he will immediately abandon the meeting.

This is the character of the North Korean people, they are very honorable, never being looked down upon by others. Therefore, the possibility of meeting is 50/50. The world hopes that there will be a meeting. Therefore, the US government must be careful in its statements.

Pv:Suppose there is a meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, what do you think they will discuss?

Major General Le Van Cuong:This is a difficult issue, but it is inevitable. If there is a meeting, US President Donald Trump will most likely have a consistent request to make a request for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the ballistic missile program. Any US President, any US official, anytime, anywhere must say this.

In return, Mr. Kim Jong-un is probably also willing to accept the US President's request, on the condition that the US must withdraw all US military bases and 20,000 US troops in South Korea, all US military bases and 48,000 US troops in Japan. In particular, the missile defense system in South Korea must be immediately withdrawn. If Kim Jong-un raises such an issue, it is also fair, called give and take. That is 1 for 1, one side cannot lose everything, the other side can gain everything.

So, it turns out that Kim Jong-un has put Donald Trump in a completely passive position, and the ball is rolling back to the United States because Kim has full authority to decide to abandon the nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But Donald Trump does not have full authority to withdraw troops and bases from South Korea and Japan, because this must go through the National Assembly. I think this is a wise move. So, after this meeting, the focus will shift to the United States, the game will return to zero. Donald Trump will be put in a difficult position, while Kim Jong-un will be in a proactive position, pushing the American superpower into a difficult position. This is an extremely wise political and diplomatic calculation of Kim Jong-un, the content of which will likely take place in May.

The end of the meeting will strengthen Kim Jong-un's role and position, and people will look at North Korea in a different light. If the meeting happens, North Korea will benefit more. The one who benefits the most is China. Because China has a burning desire for the US to withdraw all military bases and US troops in South Korea and Japan. So in this meeting, the winner will be China.

Pv:Sir, after the meeting in May, will North Korea turn to a new turning point? Will peace prevail and the tension like in 2017 will not happen again?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Even if the meeting can take place, it is impossible to predict whether North Korea will change to a completely different state after this meeting. Of course, dialogue will open a new era. This is in line with the international trend, in line with the trend of cooperation in the Northeast Asia region in particular and the world in general.

Even after the meeting with Donald Trump, Kim Jong-un may consider a meeting with Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister. However, this does not mean that after this meeting, North Korea will move to a completely different state, that is, only peaceful dialogue. I think it is not quite that simple.

Channels for peaceful dialogue can be opened. North Korea will have continuous shuttle diplomacy, bilateral and multilateral, but stability depends not only on North Korea but also on the behavior of the United States.

If the US continues to impose harsh sanctions and conduct larger military exercises, North Korea will certainly not sit still and will continue to test nuclear weapons and ballistic weapons. The Korean peninsula is in a state of alternating advantages and tensions.

After this meeting, more bilateral and multilateral dialogue channels will open. The Korean Peninsula will be relatively stable and more peaceful. The risk of tension may still occur, but in any case, it will not be as tense as in 2017.

Pv:Thank you Major General Le Van Cuong!