USD exchange rate today 11/11/2024: Bank exchange rate drops sharply

Forecast of USD trend this week

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is currently at 104.95.

The DXY index started the week lower but then rebounded strongly thanks to the results of last week's US presidential election. DXY rose from a low of 103.37 to 105.44 as the election results began to be announced, with Donald Trump winning.

Republican candidate Trump declared victory and pledged to implement policies on immigration, tariffs and trade, which are expected to boost the US economy.

If Republicans win big, they could make major legislative changes that could have a big impact on currency markets.

Mr Trump's policies, including curbing illegal immigration, raising tariffs and cutting taxes, could boost economic growth and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.

However, the DXY's rally stalled after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on November 6. At this meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the interest rate down to 4.5-4.75%. This opens up the possibility that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December.

The DXY is currently heading towards 106, which is considered a strong resistance level. The market is expecting the DXY to fall back from 106, and possibly to 104 or even 103 in the coming weeks. So the movement of the index around 106 will need to be watched closely.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen sharply from 4.48% last week. The current resistance level is 4.45%, and the support level is 4.2%. If the yield breaks below the 4.2% support level, it could fall to 4% in the coming weeks. Conversely, if it holds above 4.2%, the yield could recover to 4.4-4.5%.

Over the past week, the EUR/USD index has fallen below 1.08. This level is now acting as strong resistance, limiting the EUR's upside.

The short-term outlook for the EUR is bearish, with a drop to 1.06 possible. However, 1.06 is strong support, and if the EUR reverses from this level, it could rise back to 1.08 or higher. So, it is worth keeping a close eye on developments around 1.06.

Domestic USD exchange rate today

The central exchange rate of VND/USD was announced by the State Bank at the beginning of the week at 24,278 VND/USD. According to the +/- 5% band that commercial banks are allowed to trade, the exchange rate will fluctuate between 23,064 and 25,492 VND/USD.

The current reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam is 23,400 VND/USD (buy) and 25,450 VND/USD (sell).

At some major commercial banks, USD exchange rates are as follows:

Vietcombank: Buy 25,100 VND/USD, sell 25,470 VND/USD.

VietinBank: Buy 24,945 VND/USD, sell 25,455 VND/USD.

Some private joint stock commercial banks also list USD exchange rates such as:

Techcombank: Buy 25,026 VND/USD, sell 25,491 VND/USD.

Eximbank: Buy 25,110 VND/USD, sell 25,491 VND/USD.

In the free market, the USD/VND exchange rate this morning was traded at 25,520 - 25,620 VND/USD. Compared to the bank rate, the buying price in the free market is 575 VND higher, while the difference in selling price between commercial banks and the free market is at least 129 VND.