USD exchange rate on May 19, 2025: Increase after import data, but recovery momentum is not yet solid

USD exchange rate rises after import data unexpectedly recovers

The USD Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies, edged up slightly, trading around 100.82 at 11 a.m. Vietnam time, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

However, the outlook for the USD remains unclear as the market continues to expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates this year.

The dollar's gains were supported by the latest report from the US Labor Department showing that import prices rose 0.1% in April, reversing a 0.4% decline in March. This exceeded economists' forecasts, which expected import prices (excluding tariffs) to continue falling 0.4%.

The increase was largely due to a sharp increase in capital expenditures, which offset a decline in energy prices. This positive news has helped to improve expectations for the resilience of the US economy.

However, the USD was also under pressure when a survey from the University of Michigan showed that the US consumer sentiment index in May fell sharply to 50.8, lower than the forecast of 53.4 and the previous month's level of 52.2. Notably, people's inflation expectations in the next 12 months increased sharply from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest level since November 1981, reflecting that consumer sentiment is still dominated by price instability and tariff policies.

The greenback jumped more than 1% after the US and China announced a 90-day tariff pause, helping ease fears of a global recession.

However, the USD turned slightly lower for the rest of the week as other economic data showed a gloomy trend, causing the market to start reconsidering the growth outlook.

Since the beginning of April, the USD has lost nearly 3% after President Donald Trump announced widespread tariffs on many countries, causing the market to doubt the sustainability of US trade and financial management.

According to data from LSEG, the market is now pricing in a 67.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting. This is a significant change from the previous forecast, which was leaning towards a cut as early as July.

However, Fed officials have recently maintained a cautious stance, saying more time and clear economic data are needed to fully assess the impact of new tariffs as well as inflation trends before deciding on policy.

Domestic USD exchange rate today, May 19, adjusted in opposite directions

On May 19, 2025, the domestic USD exchange rate recorded many mixed fluctuations at commercial banks, while the USD price on the free market dropped sharply by 70 VND per transaction.

The State Bank announced today's central exchange rate at 24,970 VND/USD, up 10 VND compared to the end of last week.

With a trading margin of ±5%, commercial banks are allowed to trade within the range of 23,722 - 26,219 VND/USD.

The State Bank of Vietnam kept the reference buying and selling exchange rates unchanged at 23,772 - 26,168 VND/USD.

At commercial banks, the USD exchange rate this morning fluctuated slightly, within a narrow range of 10 - 45 VND:

Vietcombank and Eximbank decreased by 10 VND compared to the previous session.

On the contrary, Techcombank and VietinBank increased USD buying and selling prices from 21 - 23 VND.

Currently, the USD buying rate at popular banks is around 25,710 - 25,770 VND/USD, while the selling price ranges from 26,100 - 26,150 VND/USD.

On the free market, the USD price decreased significantly on the morning of May 19. At 9:15 a.m., the greenback was bought at 26,330 VND/USD and sold at 26,430 VND/USD, down 70 VND in both directions compared to the previous session.