With 'dismal' approval ratings, Mr. Trump decided to 'renew' his election campaign

The numbers are full of uncertainty

Donald Trump’s campaign will be held at Portsmouth International Airport with one difference from the campaign in Oklahoma: participants will be provided with masks and hand sanitizer. This is seen as an acknowledgement by Donald Trump of the seriousness of the Covid-19 epidemic in the US when in recent days, the number of new infections has continuously set new records.

Experts say the rising number of Covid-19 infections in 39 states across the US is casting a shadow over President Donald Trump's election campaign, which is also the most difficult problem for his campaign team to solve when seeking a second term for the White House owner.

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, Donald Trump still holds election campaigns. Photo: CNN

Some Democratic lawmakers in New Hampshire also criticized that trying to hold a second campaign rally after the Covid-19 outbreak would only add to the "chaos" caused by the Trump administration's poor handling of the pandemic, while not forgetting to compare it to Joe Biden's cancellation of campaign rallies to highlight the differences between the two candidates.

The determination to hold an election campaign in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic resurgence is a "big gamble" in Donald Trump's election campaign, because it is clear that his campaign team cannot "sit still" when polls show that Democratic opponent Joe Biden is leading with an increasingly large gap.

Historical data from US presidential elections does not support Donald Trump. Polls conducted in June showed former US President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by about 10%. Meanwhile, the latest poll conducted by Monmouth University on July 4th showed that Joe Biden was supported by 53% of voters, while Donald Trump was supported by only 41%. Of course, polls are not an accurate measure of what will happen in the November election, and many people can argue that Donald Trump's campaign still has 4 months to turn the situation around. But behind the July 4th survey is a rather important reality that any president would feel uneasy if he fell into a similar situation.

The latest poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 11 percentage points. Photo: CBS News

In the 13 US presidential elections since 1940, the November election results have moved by an average of only 4.5% compared to the results of polls held on Independence Day, and the highest deviation has been only 7%. Therefore, being surpassed by Joe Biden by a double-digit margin at this point is considered an extremely disadvantageous point for President Donald Trump. A worse signal for Donald Trump is that, at this point in all elections, any candidate who wins a support rate of over 50% will be the winner in the final race.

Therefore, analysts believe that Donald Trump and his campaign team need to do something “truly extraordinary” to turn the situation around. According to some sources, Donald Trump is determined to “renew” his campaign by changing personnel and expanding the campaign message to attract more voters beyond the traditional conservative voters. In particular, he may focus on his ability to lead the economic recovery after the pandemic - a bright spot in the polls up to this point.

Trump's two "attacks"

Donald Trump’s initial campaign was to expand his chances of winning into traditionally “blue” Democratic states like Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire. But now his campaign team has returned to a more basic goal: “holding on” to the states he won in 2016, especially securing victories in states considered “invincible strongholds” for the Republican Party like Georgia and Florida.

President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla., on June 20, 2020. Photo: Charlotte Cuthbertson / The Epoch Times

This is not an easy goal, because some campaign aides have seen the risk of losing some states that Donald Trump won in 2016 such as Michigan, Wisconsin. Even in Georgia - where no Democratic candidate has won since 1992 - the survey results also show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump. Donald Trump's team currently has a very realistic view, which is not expecting a "landslide" victory like in 2016, but only trying to win the minimum number of electoral votes to win.

But to do that “truly extraordinary” thing, analysts say Donald Trump and his team first need to clarify the direction of what he will do if he wins a second term. Many Republican lawmakers complain that there is little or no information about Donald Trump’s agenda if he wins the November election. That makes coordinating messages during the campaign difficult.

Republicans are well aware of Donald Trump’s current predicament, so they are pushing for internal discussions about a second term, with the goal of highlighting the different visions between Donald Trump and his opponent Joe Biden on the key issues that Americans care about most right now. The two issues that are most talked about right now are America’s two biggest crises: Covid-19 and economic recovery.

Controlling the epidemic and restoring the economy are the two most important issues for Mr. Donald Trump to regain the trust of voters. Photo: New York Times

With Covid-19, Mr. Donald Trump will have to admit the seriousness of the epidemic, must build public trust by taking actions "better slow than never" instead of the flowery words "the virus will disappear" as before, must implement measures to manage the health crisis such as wearing masks, testing widely and tracing infected people with unified standards at the national level in parallel with steps to open the economy. In addition, Mr. Donald Trump's campaign team must specifically outline measures to minimize the impact of Covid-19 on the economy, the most feasible at this time is to expand unemployment benefits, provide economic support packages to states to create more jobs, reduce the unemployment rate.

The American people certainly do not expect the two-pronged campaign of Mr. Trump to be effective before the election on November 3. But at least the American people need to know that the President they trust is leading the United States in the right direction. And the upcoming campaign in New Hampshire will demonstrate how Donald Trump’s determination to “work with” the campaign can bring results.