Ukraine determined to make a big push in winter

Ukraine's counter-offensive is slowing down

Bakhmut is currently the focus of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Despite heavy casualties, the two armies are still fighting fiercely here and show no signs of giving in to the other.

However, at the strategic level, offensive operations have slowed down after major Ukrainian advances, such as the liberation of the city of Kherson after Russia withdrew its troops from the city.

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut on November 1. Photo: Reuters

Fighting between the two sides has largely returned to the artillery exchanges that have characterized the lull in the nearly 10-month conflict, while troops on both sides wait for temperatures to drop further and freeze the ground.

The ground in Ukraine will freeze thickly by mid-January next year, making it easier for vehicles to move on the roads. This is seen as an opportunity for Ukrainian mechanized units to move deep behind Russian lines and launch counterattacks.

Ukrainian counterattacks have liberated parts of the territory that Russia has controlled since February 24. Now, Ukrainian artillery and special forces are preparing for the next wave of attacks, targeting Russian command centers, supply depots and logistics routes.

“Based on statements from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other officials, it appears that all of the Western allies have accepted the fact that Ukraine is not going to stop. I don’t see any desire or effort to pressure Ukraine to negotiate at this point,” said Mark Voyger, former special adviser for Russian and Eurasian affairs to US Army Europe commander Gen. Ben Hodges.

Dan Soller, a former US military intelligence official, said that “indications are that there is a possibility of a Ukrainian offensive this winter” from Zaporizhzhia south to Melitopol.

“The time for Ukraine to launch an offensive in this area could be from early January to late February next year. This depends on the weather and if the rivers freeze, Ukraine will be able to launch attacks more easily.”

Such an attack would likely allow Ukrainian forces to cut off key rail and road routes stretching west from the Russian border, through Mariupol and into the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine turns south

Roman Kostenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament from Odessa, said the fast-flowing Dineper River is posing a challenge for Ukraine.

“It is very difficult to cross the river in any weather conditions,” Mr Kostenko said, referring to the river that currently separates Ukrainian and Russian positions.

“Can we cross the river to regain territory on the other side at the moment? I have serious doubts about that. In terms of regaining territory, we have many areas: Zaporizhzhia, Melitopol, Berdyansk,” he added, highlighting the direction of Ukraine’s attack southward towards the port cities of the Azov coast.

“If we can break through the Russian defenses there, we have a good chance of returning to the southern bank of the Dnieper to liberate the rest of Kherson. If so, all Russian logistics will have to be rerouted through Crimea.”

Voyger believes Ukraine will have the upper hand in the south rather than the east. “I think Ukraine should move as quickly as possible towards Melitopol in an attempt to encircle Crimea. Otherwise, Russia will use the time to build up defenses in the entire region.”

“If we regain control of Melitopol, the pressure on Ukraine to counterattack in Bakhmut will be reduced. Then Ukraine can easily retake the remaining areas and liberate Donetsk,” Voyger said.

Melitopol is a strategically located city in the Zaporizhzhia region that Russia has used as a logistics hub since its annexation. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said Russia had moved S-300 missile systems and other high-precision weapons to the city to bombard areas in Zaporizhzhia.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian forces attacked a bridge strategically important to Russian logistics in Melitopol, which Russian soldiers use to bring military equipment into the area.

Military experts say Ukraine's tactics to pressure Russian forces in Melitopol are believed to be similar to those they used in Kherson, targeting both troops and supply routes.

The Kremlin could spend the winter trying to stabilize the front line “through military means, through diplomatic means, through attacking Ukrainian infrastructure and bringing in reinforcements,” Voyger said. Russia could also build up forces along the Ukraine-Belarus border to distract Kiev and position its defenses there. “But I think they’ll have a hard time doing that,” Voyger said.

Mr. Kostenko believes that President Putin will try to achieve a great success on the battlefield in the coming time.

“Russia may try to attack in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, although in my opinion they have more advantages in Zaporizhzhia. They are looking for a victory, while for us it is important to strengthen the defenses in those regions and mobilize forces for the upcoming counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia.”