Ukraine aims to make a major breakthrough this winter.

Ukraine's counteroffensive is slowing down.

Bakhmut is currently the focal point of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Despite heavy casualties, both sides continue to fight fiercely there with no signs of compromise.

However, at the strategic level, offensive operations have slowed down following significant advances by Ukraine, such as the liberation of Kherson after Russia withdrew its troops from the city.

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut on November 1st. Photo: Reuters

The fighting between the two sides has largely reverted to artillery exchanges, a hallmark of the nearly 10-month-long lull in the conflict, as both armies await further temperature drops that could freeze the ground.

The ground in Ukraine will freeze over by mid-January next year, making it easier for vehicles to travel on the roads. This is seen as an opportunity for Ukrainian mechanized units to advance deep behind Russian lines and launch counterattacks.

Ukrainian counterattacks have liberated large swathes of Russian territory since February 24th. Currently, Ukrainian artillery and special forces are preparing for the next offensive, targeting Russian command centers, supply depots, and logistics routes.

“Based on statements from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other officials, it appears all Western allies have accepted the reality that Ukraine will not stop. I haven’t seen any desire or attempt to pressure Ukraine to negotiate at this point,” said Mark Voyger, former special adviser on Russia and Eurasia to U.S. Army Commander in Europe, General Ben Hodges.

Dan Soller, a former U.S. military intelligence official, said that “indicators suggest a potential Ukrainian offensive this winter” from Zaporizhzhia south toward Melitopol.

“The timing of Ukraine’s offensive in this area could be from early January to the end of February next year. This depends on the weather, and if the rivers freeze over, Ukraine will be able to carry out attacks more easily.”

Such an attack would likely allow Ukrainian forces to cut off vital rail and road routes extending westward from the Russian border, through Mariupol, and into the Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine shifts its focus southward.

Roman Kostenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament from Odessa, argues that the fast-flowing Dineper River poses a challenge for Ukraine.

"It is very difficult to cross the river in any weather conditions," Kostenko said, referring to the river that currently separates Ukrainian and Russian positions.

“Can we cross the river to reclaim territory on the other side at this time? I have serious doubts about that. In terms of reclaiming territory, we have many areas like Zaporizhzhia, Melitopol, Berdyansk,” he added, emphasizing Ukraine’s offensive toward the south towards port cities on the Azov Sea coast.

"If we can break through the Russian defenses there, we have a good chance of returning to the south bank of the Dnieper River to liberate the rest of Kherson. If so, all Russian logistics will have to be rerouted through Crimea."

Expert Voyger believes Ukraine will have an advantage in the south than in the east. “I think Ukraine should advance as quickly as possible towards Melitopol in an attempt to encircle Crimea. Otherwise, Russia will use the time to build a defensive line throughout the entire region.”

"If Ukraine regains control of Melitopol, the pressure from the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Bakhmut will decrease. Then, Ukraine can more easily retake the remaining areas and liberate Donetsk," Voyger said.

Melitopol is a strategically located city in the Zaporizhzhia region that Russia has used as a logistics hub since its annexation. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov claims that Russia has moved S-300 missile systems and other precision weapons to the city to bombard areas in Zaporizhzhia.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian forces attacked a bridge strategically important to Russian logistics in Melitopol. This bridge is used by Russian troops to bring military equipment into the area.

Military experts believe that Ukraine's tactics to pressure Russian forces in Melitopol are similar to those they used in Kherson, targeting both soldiers and supply routes.

According to Voyger, the Kremlin may spend the entire winter trying to stabilize the front lines “through military means, diplomatic means, by attacking Ukrainian infrastructure and sending in reinforcements.” Additionally, Russia could build up forces along the Ukraine-Belarus border to distract Kyiv and position defensive troops there. “But I think they will have difficulty doing this,” Voyger said.

Kostenko believes that President Putin will try to achieve a major success on the battlefield in the near future.

“Russia may attempt an offensive in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, although in my opinion they have a greater advantage in Zaporizhzhia. They are looking for a victory, while for us, it is important to strengthen our defenses in those areas and mobilize forces for the upcoming counterattack in Zaporizhzhia.”