Will Ukraine stop the offensive by the end of November?

Ria Novosti quoted military analyst Michael Clarke in an interview with CNBC that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will stop the offensive at the end of November, due to worsening weather conditions.

"They will continue to fight, but by the end of November the weather will get quite wet, and the offensive will stop when the cold weather sets in, around late December and early January next year," said military analyst Michael Clarke.

According to Clarke, once the weather turns cold, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to use their vehicles more effectively because the ground will be harder. However, the offensive will inevitably slow down. So the best time for Ukraine to make a breakthrough is “now,” but they “have not done it.”

Kiev has always argued that by fighting Russia, it is protecting the world from an “aggressive Moscow.” But Ukraine cannot mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops in the way that Russia can. And Kiev desperately needs more sophisticated long-range weapons and equipment, especially air power.

Ukraine’s Western allies have a tendency to delay the delivery of heavy weapons. Last winter, the debate over whether to send heavy battle tanks to Ukraine was a prime example. And once the heavy weapons were “given the nod,” the long wait once again limited what Ukraine could do in its counteroffensive. Ukraine once begged its allies to provide F-16s, but was rebuffed. A few months later, some European allies agreed to provide F-16s to Ukraine — but not before 2025.

Meanwhile, analysts say Russia has a clear advantage in this conflict, as it is mainly on the defensive, not on the offensive.

Russia has a significant advantage over Ukraine, Clarke noted. Moscow has built a complex, deep defense line. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces face numerous anti-tank obstacles, minefields, and kilometers of trenches.

"In particular, the minefields disrupt the momentum and speed of Ukraine's offensive," said analyst Clarke.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said that some minefields have expanded from 120 to 500 meters in some areas, making Ukraine the most mined country in the world. And this situation has become a serious and time-consuming challenge for the Ukrainian military to overcome.