How difficult will Ukraine's situation be without intelligence from the United States?
The U.S. decision to stop sharing military intelligence with Ukraine will weaken Kyiv's offensive and defensive capabilities against the Russian military, while increasing pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace deal promoted by the Trump administration.
Earlier this week, the US suspended arms supplies – a major blow, but experts believe Ukraine can still hold out for at least a few months. However, AP argues that the suspension of intelligence sharing has a more immediate impact, as it disrupts Ukraine's ability to track and attack Russian soldiers, tanks, and warships; while other Ukrainian allies lack the resources to fill this gap.
Why did the U.S. stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine?
The decision to halt intelligence sharing – and military aid – was made following a tense visit to the White House last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance want Zelensky to quickly accept a ceasefire agreement with Russia – which currently controls one-fifth of Ukraine's territory – and cede the right to exploit a significant portion of its mineral resources to the US in exchange for future support.
The Trump administration argued that Ukraine had not shown sufficient goodwill in seeking peace with Russia, and that the U.S. had held separate talks with Moscow to try to end the war.
US officials revealed on March 5 that the reduction in intelligence sharing may only be a temporary measure to advance ceasefire negotiations, adding that discussions since the tense meeting at the White House have been more positive.
"We are reviewing and pausing all aspects of this relationship," U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on March 5. CIA Director John Ratcliffe called the suspension a "pause."
President Zelensky has repeatedly stated his willingness to discuss peace, but any agreement must guarantee sufficient security for Ukraine. He also publicly expressed regret over the tense, televised meeting at the White House.
Trump administration officials believe the mineral exploitation agreement will help strengthen US-Ukraine relations and make Russian President Vladimir Putin think twice before taking new actions against Ukraine.
How will a lack of intelligence from the US affect Ukraine?
The White House has not specified which aspects of intelligence sharing have been suspended. However, without U.S. support – including crucial data collected from Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system – Ukraine's ability to strike weapons and other targets inside Russian territory would be severely diminished.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory – which rely on long-range weapons supplied by the U.S. – are a key factor in hindering Russia's offensive capabilities and momentum. Ukraine relies on U.S. intelligence to operate the HIMARS high-mobility multiple rocket launcher systems and the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
In addition, Ukraine also needed intelligence from the US for early warning and defense against Russian long-range missile and drone attacks. In the early days of the war, this intelligence helped Ukraine prevent Russia from achieving a rapid victory.
Before the US imposed new restrictions, the pace of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory – such as attacks on ammunition depots – helped relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces on the front lines. Analysts believe this is one of the reasons why Russia's advance in eastern Ukraine has slowed in recent weeks.
Could the U.S. start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again?
In an interview with Fox News, US National Security Advisor Waltz said that the suspension of intelligence sharing could be reversed if Zelensky demonstrated to President Trump that he was willing to negotiate peace with Russia on Trump's terms.
President Zelensky has said he wants to “repair relations” with Trump, but that hasn’t been enough to change the mind of the U.S. – Ukraine’s biggest military backer since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022.
Ukrainian and US officials are expected to hold talks next week in Saudi Arabia, Zelensky said on the evening of March 6.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky is seeking support from Europe, where most leaders are disappointed by the Trump administration's decision to cut aid to a key US ally in the fight against Russia.
On March 6, European Union leaders held an emergency meeting to bolster the bloc's security and ensure Ukraine remains protected.
It remains unclear whether the US decision to suspend intelligence-sharing will affect intelligence-sharing relationships between Ukraine and other Western powers, including the remaining four members of the Five Eyes group – an intelligence-sharing alliance between the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said in a radio interview on March 6 that France would continue to provide military intelligence to Ukraine. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron announced he would discuss with EU leaders the possibility of using France's nuclear deterrent to protect Europe from threats from Russia.
