Türkiye's risky gamble in Idlib (Syria) puts Russia in an unstable position?

In recent days, tensions have been escalating between Türkiye and Syria over Idlib province in northwestern Syria - the last major stronghold of rebels and insurgents.

At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an airstrike by Syrian government forces on February 27. President Tayyip Erdogan had earlier issued an ultimatum to the Syrian army to withdraw from Turkish observation posts in Idlib by March 1. A spokesman for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) said the Turkish army was ready to take a step forward as soon as the deadline passed.

However, Syrian government forces clearly have no intention of withdrawing. Forces loyal to the Damascus government continue to liberate cities and towns in southern Idlib province with the goal of retaking the strategic highway that connects the country's second most populous city of Aleppo with the main port of Latakia, the capital of the western coastal province of the same name.

The current tensions in Idlib also put Russia – both an ally of the Syrian regime and a close partner of Türkiye – in a precarious position, and potentially increase the challenge to Türkiye's NATO allies.

Risky Game

Turkey appears determined to escalate to the point of no return, but analysts say this does not necessarily mean it wants all-out war.

Idlib is an extremely important area for the Erdogan government, according to Ruslan Mamedov, a Middle East analyst at the Moscow-based Russian International Affairs Council.

On the ground, however, the cards appear to be stacked against Turkish-backed forces.

“It is clear that the Syrian government will restore sovereignty and regain control over the country's territories,” Mamedov told RT.

This puts Türkiye in a difficult situation, as President Erdogan cannot back down and make concessions for domestic political reasons, the magazine's editor-in-chief said.“Russia in Global Affairs”(Russia in global affairs), Mr. Fyodor Lukyanov explained.

According to Mr. Lukyuanov, the current situation is like a double-edged sword because Türkiye has played “all in.” However, analyst Mamedov believes that Türkiye’s goal is not to start a war but to “provoke” Moscow and gain an advantage in negotiations.

The risks of this kind of policy are quite high. Clashes have resulted in casualties on both the Turkish and Syrian sides. According to Mr. Mamedov, although no developments have led to drastic measures, further escalation could put Ankara on the brink of conflict with Moscow.

“There is a risk... that could lead Russia to become more actively involved in the conflict and that is the risk of a Russian plane being shot down. Türkiye has deployed air defense systems to the war zone,” Mr. Mamedov said.

The downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet in 2015 led to a serious crisis in relations between Moscow and Ankara, although the two countries sought to avoid a military escalation and later worked to improve relations.

“Stick to the rules of the game”

While the situation may seem tense, it is also clear that both Türkiye and Syria are trying to avoid things getting out of control and becoming a “bloodbath”.

“The Syrian army has not taken any radical steps. The Turkish observation points remain intact, although many of them have been surrounded by the Syrian army. The sides are trying to avoid a ‘melee’,” Mamedov said.

The risk of conflict between NATO’s second-largest army and a permanent member of the UN Security Council also acts as a deterrent in this situation. “It would be easier for Ankara to reach an agreement with Moscow than to push for a further escalation,” analyst Mamedov told RT.

Meanwhile, the magazine's editor-in-chief“Russia in Global Affairs”Lukyanov also believes that the parties will make efforts to reduce the risk of a potential confrontation.

“When it comes to Syria, Russia and Türkiye are interdependent on one point, which is that Türkiye cannot achieve its goals without Russia... but Russia also finds itself in a difficult situation when it faces opposition from Ankara,” he said.

Russia and Türkiye - two proxy forces that decide the Syrian political chessboard. Photo: Getty

“A deal between Russia and Türkiye seems inevitable. The conflict will be virtually frozen, there will be new lines of contact,” Lukyanov said, adding that Russia could agree on a sort of buffer zone along the Turkish border – similar to the one established in northeastern Syria previously controlled by Kurdish forces.

“What is happening is a war of wits, not a path to direct confrontation,” Lukyanov said.

NATO will not intervene

President Erdogan recently said he had asked the US for help in Idlib, but so far Türkiye has received no actual help. This has not discouraged Ankara, however, and it continues to try to drag its NATO allies into the Syrian mess.

Analysts believe that Türkiye will likely have to “go it alone” in this matter. The US military has long considered Idlib a safe haven for terrorists, making US intervention on behalf of Turkey very unlikely.

“Even in the event of an open confrontation between Türkiye and Russia, the United States would not have strong reasons to intervene, and neither would NATO. After all, it was not an attack on Turkish territory,” Mamedov said.

Mr. Lukyanov also believes that NATO will almost certainly stop at expressing solidarity with Ankara, but will be unlikely to go further.

“They will have to wait until the situation is resolved. They will just need to show that they are on the side of their ally without getting involved in a conflict that could have serious consequences for the entire military alliance,” Lukyanov told RT./.