Ancient documents help predict...solar storms

Writers hundreds of years ago recorded events related to solar storms.

Japanese scientists have studied two historical volumes Meigetsuki and Song Shi - covering the period from the 10th to the 14th centuries. This could help us prepare for future major solar storms.

Scientists have found evidence in ancient Japanese and Chinese literature that described space weather phenomena centuries ago and could help us prepare for a major solar storm in the future.

Ancient documents are valuable sources of information in the study of magnetic storms in the past.

Because solar storms have the potential to cause widespread disruption and damage on Earth, yet they leave no physical traces for scientists to study, that's why historical texts can be invaluable in uncovering the past existence of these invisible storms.

"Combining literature and space observations, we have discovered clear patterns in solar activity and astronomical events," said space scientist Hiroaki Isobe from Kyoto University in Japan. "In today's era, large solar storms can significantly disrupt power grids and satellites. We are now very sensitive to solar-related events, and the insight gained through historical records allows us to better predict and prepare for the future."

In Meigetsuki, the Japanese poet Fujiwara Sadaie recounts seeing red and white vapors in the night sky on February 21 and 23, 1204 – interpreted as a sign of a magnetic storm that struck Earth at the time. “The red vapor appeared in the north and northeast,” he wrote. “It resembled a distant mountain. It was a very terrifying sight.”

Solar storms originate from explosions on the surface of the Sun.

Meanwhile, a large sunspot, a sign of intense solar activity, was also recorded during the same period in the Song Shi episode. "We found about 10 incidents of prolonged aurora during this period," said historian Hisashi Hayakawa. "When these dates were compared with radiocarbon data from tree rings, we noted a decrease in the level of carbon-14 (indicating increased solar activity) at the same points."

These papers have set the stage for researchers to build a timeline of space weather activity, and also revealed that auroras are more common during the peak phase of the solar cycle — when solar activity and radiation occur — all of which gives us a better basis for predicting magnetic storms.

Solar storms occur when explosions of particles from the Sun impact the oxygen and nitrogen in Earth's atmosphere and also affect Earth's magnetic field. Particularly severe solar events, called coronal mass ejections (CMES), can cause major problems on our planet.

A major solar storm today could severely impact all satellites, GPS, the internet, and other communications systems.

The last major magnetic storm in 1859 caused electric shocks and glowing clouds at night but the consequences would certainly be much greater today due to the advances in science and technology we have.

Compared to the past, the impact of a magnetic storm today will be much greater.

Another problem is that no one really knows when the next major storm will hit Earth, which is why scientists are looking for predictions based on any possible evidence or ideas that can be found. Researchers are looking to see if any older texts might hold clues that we can use to map out the history of solar activity and unusual space weather events.

Areas that have previously been overlooked for scientific or factual content may have useful yet unexplored information in them, and any solar storm patterns identified could help scientists prepare for similar phenomena in the future.

Previously, Fujiwara Sadaie's works were "not really valuable for scientific research," according to Tsuneyo Terashima, deputy director at the National Institute of Japanese Literature, who also helped with the research. "Now we realize that Meigetsuki actually provides a clear and accurate amount of information about the natural conditions of the period."

According to Khoahoc.tv