Why is the iPhone 18 Pro Max facing the risk of selling out even before its official launch?

The next generation of iPhones launching this September is attracting significant attention from the tech world with the appearance of the high-end iPhone 18 Pro Max and the foldable iPhone Ultra. While promising a major technological breakthrough, the latest leaked reports suggest users may face severe shortages and extended delivery times even during the pre-order period.

The DRAM memory chip crisis stems from the AI ​​data center craze.

According to semiconductor industry expert Tim Culpan, Apple's biggest obstacle doesn't come from its processors but from the supply of DRAM memory chips. The boom in AI data centers globally has led memory manufacturers to prioritize operational capacity for this segment to maximize profits. This has resulted in a severe shortage of RAM for mobile devices.

Furthermore, this situation indirectly hinders the production process of other consumer devices. Previously, delivery times for the Mac Studio, Mac mini, and MacBook Air were significantly affected. Now, a similar risk is directly threatening the supply chain of the flagship iPhone 18 Pro Max.

The technological bottleneck stems from the 2nm process and WMCM packaging technique.

Apple's troubles are more serious than usual due to major advances in chip manufacturing technology. The A20 Pro processor, expected to power the iPhone 18 Pro Max and iPhone Ultra, is manufactured using TSMC's advanced 2nm process, delivering up to 15% faster speeds or 30% more energy efficiency compared to the older 3nm generation.

Notably, Apple has abandoned the traditional InFO-PoP packaging technology in favor of Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) – an upgraded variant of TSMC's CoWoS 2.5D technology. This technology integrates the CPU, GPU, Neural Engine, and DRAM directly at the silicon wafer level, minimizing communication latency, increasing memory bandwidth thanks to the 96-bit LPDDR6 standard, improving temperature control, and maximizing optimization for demanding Apple Intelligence tasks.

However, WMCM requires that DRAM memory chips be directly integrated into the processor board during the manufacturing process. Apple cannot stockpile processor chips and then add RAM later. Due to the DRAM shortage at the initial production stage, TSMC currently has an inventory of unfinished processors worth approximately $1 billion. This bottleneck is causing delays in the motherboard assembly (MLB) chain as well as the device finishing process at Foxconn and BYD factories.

Upward price pressure and supply chain volatility

The RAM shortage, coupled with the high cost of manufacturing 2nm components, is driving up the price of the new product line. Analysts predict the iPhone 18 Pro Max and Pro versions could be up to $300 more expensive than their predecessors. Meanwhile, the foldable iPhone Ultra is predicted to reach a price of up to $2,500.

To ease the financial pressure on customers facing sky-high prices, Apple plans to boost its hardware subscription program (Apple Upgrade), allowing for more affordable monthly installments. Additionally, Apple's postponement of the standard iPhone 18 launch until early 2027 means users will have no cheaper options during the September launch. All purchasing pressure will therefore be directed towards the iPhone 18 Pro Max and iPhone 18 Pro.

Of the projected total production of approximately 200 million units over the product's entire lifecycle, the foldable iPhone Ultra accounts for less than 10% due to its manufacturing complexity; the majority of the remaining production capacity will be dedicated to the iPhone 18 Pro Max and the Pro series. Analysts advise users who want to upgrade to be ready to place orders as soon as the pre-order portal opens to avoid a prolonged wait until the end of the year.