Tehran, the capital of Iran. Photo Internet

Protests erupt

Since December 28, protests have broken out in Mashhad, Iran's second largest city, with hundreds of people taking to the streets to protest rising prices of basic goods. From there, the wave of protests has spread to about 50 cities, including the capital Tehran, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets.

In some places, the protests turned violent, with clashes with police. According to incomplete statistics, on the night of January 1 and the morning of January 2, 6 protesters were killed in Isfahan province when they tried to storm a police station in Qahderijan.

More than 20 people have died in protests across the country. Arrests have been increasing. In the capital Tehran, 450 protesters were arrested, and in Isfahan, more than 100 were arrested on the evening of January 1.

In response to the increasingly tense developments, the Iranian government has deployed additional security forces in the country. With the radical protesters, the government has chosen to use harsher repression measures.

The Ministry of National Security and Intelligence assured that “troublemakers and instigators” had been identified and “taken care of soon.” This message was apparently the clearest indication of further arrests to come.

A woman participates in a protest in Iran.

“With each passing day, the crimes of those arrested will become more serious and the punishments will become more severe,” warned Moussa Ghazanfarabadi, head of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran, adding that “we no longer see them speaking out for their own rights but rather those targeting the country’s regime.”

In a televised speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared: “Iran’s enemies have used money, weapons, media… and even security intelligence forces to create problems for the Islamic regime.”

In short, Mr Khamenei believes that the Islamic Republic is being targeted by foreign conspiracies.

But it is worth noting that Mr. Khamenei's speech completely contradicts what Iranian President Hassan Rohani stated earlier: "All the protesters were not incited from abroad and many of them took to the streets because of their emotions and problems."

The future is unpredictable

Commenting on the protests in Iran, Amélie Myriam Chelly, a religious policy researcher, said it is necessary to be careful when distinguishing between those who follow Mr. Rohani's government - who want to reform the country - and conservatives.

In some ways, the protests will benefit Mr. Rouhani, who is struggling to reform the country. They could speed up some reforms. But they could also have a knock-on effect.

The government's inability to pull Iran out of its economic crisis, partly caused by international sanctions, may also be fueling conservatism.

Many people are frustrated that the opening up has not brought positive economic results. And the increase in sanctions by US President Donald Trump has also had a decisive impact.

One notable point is that the protesters this time are often very young. Information from Iran's Ministry of Interior said that whether in the capital or in the provinces, 90% of those arrested were under 25 years old.

These people are all 9x generation, do not know the monarchy led by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi before the Islamic Republic and very few of them have participated in the 2009 political protests that shook the entire Iranian regime.

The clashes are now largely confined to the provinces, affecting only a few major urban centres. Meanwhile, the young protesters, who do not follow any leader, are becoming increasingly violent.

President Hassan Rouhani in a speech with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the background on the left and the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on the right. Photo: AFP.

The underlying cause of these protests is economic. Iranians are exhausted by corruption. Many have not been paid for months.

Iranians are arguing that most of their tax money is being invested elsewhere (building infrastructure in southern Lebanon, maintaining holy sites in Iraq and Syria) instead of investing domestically.

Therefore, many slogans such as "neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I demand dedication to Iran" were put forward.

Therefore, like many analysts, Amélie Myriam Chelly believes that it is difficult to draw an end to the ongoing protests in Iran. Especially when they have no leader, no pure political foundation and have many points that are completely opposite to the protests in 2009.

According to some analysts, the situation in Iran is not yet pessimistic because the protests are still under control.

During the 2009 protests, the government had to resort to using the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia to suppress the protesters.