Why do Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un meet repeatedly?

Illustration photo: Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made his third visit to China in mid-June. His visit to Beijing, not long after his summit with the US in Singapore, was not surprising - it was expected that Kim would inform Xi about the recent summit, and the two sides wanted to outline strategies and directions for the coming period.

But the visit’s predictability does not diminish its significance. Rather, the meeting allows China to establish behind-the-scenes influence, shaping its image on the international stage while also cementing progress on its broader goals for the future of the Korean Peninsula and US-China relations.

First, the larger geopolitical competition with the United States was a central theme of the recent visit. Xi likely wanted to send a clear signal to the United States that China continues to play an important role in guiding Kim. Chinese media reported that China’s dual suspension plan, in which the United States halts military exercises in exchange for a freeze in North Korean nuclear testing, was basically approved in Singapore. According to Chinese media, this shows that Beijing is a “responsible superpower” and that progress on the North Korean nuclear issue “is truly inseparable from China’s efforts.”

Second, in order to promote the image of a regional power, Chinese officials’ statements have the effect of promoting an image of solidarity with North Korea. Post-meeting statements emphasized that the two sides have a “common understanding” on “a range of issues of common concern, including the prospects for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” Media reports emphasized that despite the ups and downs of the nuclear issue, the Sino-North Korean bilateral relationship is stable and growing—and that this bilateral relationship will have a strong impact on the regional environment.

The handshake between the US and North Korean leaders at the summit on June 12 in Singapore. Photo: USA Today

Finally, China wants to consolidate progress toward reducing the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. suspension of joint exercises is only the first step. Beijing may begin pushing for a peace treaty that could undermine the legitimacy of continued U.S. presence on the peninsula. China may even push Kim to bring up the U.S. deployment of the THAAD system to South Korea in the next round of talks, putting the U.S. in a difficult position.

The US should push back against such efforts, but unfortunately Washington’s main concern seems to be that China could push for sanctions relief against North Korea or that Beijing could use its role to improve its position in trade disputes with the US.

This concern is not entirely unfounded, although China may not initially respond to the sanctions regime or respond directly to tariffs. But China will eventually return to sanctions relief because Beijing believes that North Korea’s domestic reforms are the only long-term solution to the nuclear issue. For decades, North Korean leaders have raised China’s hopes that Pyongyang would follow its path of reform, only to be disappointed each time. Whatever the reason, Chinese experts believe this time will be different, with Kim “eager to learn how to turn a developing country into a global superpower.” They point to signals such as Kim’s visits to the China Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Beijing Infrastructure Investment Company during his visit. If Xi continues to believe that North Korea truly wants to integrate itself into Northeast Asia diplomatically and economically, it is only a matter of time before China steps up economic support to help Pyongyang achieve its goals.

In short, the visit shows that China has successfully kept North Korea close and engaged, using the relationship as leverage to achieve its overarching goals beyond denuclearization. These goals need not come at the expense of the United States—if China succeeds in nudging Kim onto the path of reform, it could mean more freedom and openness in North Korean society. But if China again misjudges North Korea’s intentions, providing economic assistance could undermine the momentum for denuclearization. In addition, the United States should anticipate and be wary of other Chinese initiatives that call for a reduction in U.S. military operations and presence on the Korean Peninsula.