Vietnam is at the bottom of the play-off group at the 2019 Asian Cup.

Vietnam (red shirt) lost 2-3 to Iraq in the opening match, but still has a high chance of advancing if it wins against Yemen. Photo:Mr. Khoa

After two consecutive losses against Iraq (2-3) and Iran (0-2), Vietnam is currently third in Group D and last in the group of 6 teams considered for a play-off ticket with 0 points and a goal difference of -3. Besides Mr. Park and his team, there are also three other teams that have not won any points as of the evening of January 12: Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon. Of which, Kyrgyzstan has played two matches like Vietnam.

However, the opportunity is not yet gone. If Vietnam wins with a big score difference in the last match against Yemen - the weakest team in the group, they can completely go on.

This is the first time the Asian Cup has 24 teams participating, divided into six groups of four teams each. In addition to the 12 teams finishing first and second in each group, the four best third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16. The criteria for ranking the third-placed teams are points, goal difference and number of goals. This format is similar to Euro 2016 and many previous FIFA tournaments.

The first FIFA tournament to use the 24-team format (three points for each win) was the 1994 World Cup. The U20 World Cup then switched to a 24-team format in 1997, and has been held 11 times so far. The U17 World Cup also featured 24 teams since 2007, and has been held six times so far. In 2015, the Women's World Cup first featured this format. In total, there have been 20 tournaments with a format similar to the 2019 Asian Cup.

Before entering the tournament, Coach Park Hang-seo had aimed for four points in the group stage, because history shows that such teams have a probability of reaching the round of 16 of approximately 100%. The only exception was Zambia at the 1999 U20 World Cup. Vietnam's chance of four points was gone after two consecutive losses to Gulf teams.

However, if Vietnam only has three points and ranks third in Group D, the chance of going further is still not small. Also from the sample of 20 tournaments mentioned above,The average probability that a third-placed team with three points will still progress is 51%..

Portugal won Euro 2016, despite finishing third in the group stage. At that time, Ronaldo and his teammates had three points and a goal difference of zero. Photo:Reuters.

If they get three points with a good goal difference, the chances of advancing are even higher. The probability of the third-placed team with three points and a goal difference of +1 advancing is 70%. Even with a goal difference of 0, the chances of advancing to the group stage are up to 65%.

In case of passing the group stage with third place in Group D, Vietnam will meet the winner of Group A or Group B in the round of 16.

Coach Park and his team will face Yemen at 11pm on January 16 (Hanoi time).