New weapons help Ukraine change strategy to deal with Russia

For much of the nearly six-month conflict, Ukraine’s military has been under heavy Russian artillery fire in the east and has steadily lost territory to its adversaries in an unequal confrontation. But in recent weeks, Ukraine has shifted its strategy with the help of new long-range weapons supplied by the West, and has had some success in slowing the advance of Russian forces.

A Ukrainian artillery unit in Bakhmut. Photo: New York Times

Strike deep behind Russian lines

Increasingly supplied with long-range Western weapons and backed by local supporters, Ukraine has been able to strike Russian forces deep behind enemy lines, disrupting vital supply lines and targeting targets that are key to Moscow's combat potential.

The new weapons that the West provided to Ukraine have also forced Russia to pause to readjust its forces on the battlefield, thereby creating time and space for the Ukrainian side to make more strategic decisions.

A blow to Russia this week was a series of explosions at an air base on the Crimean Peninsula that destroyed at least eight fighter jets. A Ukrainian official said the attack was the result of special forces backed by local forces.

This tactic is particularly relevant in the southern Kherson region, where Ukraine has been engaged in a major counter-offensive for weeks. The city of Kherson depends on supplies via four bridges acrossDnipro River– which is more vulnerable to attack than other cities currently controlled by Russia.

On August 13, Ukraine announced that it had hit the last of those four important bridges, leaving thousands of Russian soldiers at risk of being isolated due to being cut off from supplies.

Asymmetry of resources forces Ukraine to change tactics

“Ukraine does not have the resources that Russia has. Therefore, we need to change tactics, fight in a different way,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Pravda TV channel.

The strategy appears to be producing some results. While the Ukrainian army has not made major territorial advances, it has managed to slow Russia’s advance for now, and Moscow has suffered the same heavy losses that Ukraine has suffered in recent months.

However, Russian forces continue to put pressure on Ukraine’s frontline positions in the east and south. The continued advances show that, despite setbacks to Ukrainian attacks, Russia still has enough forces to continue the fight.

“It is clear that Ukraine cannot compete with Russia in terms of the number of units and soldiers. Ukraine is also running out of manpower. Therefore, Ukraine has to be very careful in how it deals with Russian forces,” said Samuel Bendett, a Russian weapons analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (USA).

In the east, with its vast plains, Russia could initially exploit its superiority in numbers and firepower, wearing down the Ukrainian army with relentless artillery bombardment before advancing to seize territory.

But now, with new long-range artillery, such as the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Ukraine has been able to slow the Russian advance and turn its attention to what Ukrainian generals see as more profitable territory to the south.

There, especially in Kherson – an area that Russia has controlled since the first weeks of its military campaign – Ukraine hopes to turn the tide. Using HIMARS and other long-range weapons, Ukrainian forces have gradually eroded Russia’s ability to resupply forces holding territory west of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

Serhii Khlan, an adviser to the head of the Kherson region military administration, said the destruction of the last bridge across the Dnipro River on August 13 was part of Ukraine's strategy to discourage Russian forces.

“Of course, the Russian forces will try to repair it and find an alternative. But it is a matter of time, money. Then, when they have the equipment and the power again – we will destroy it again,” Mr. Khlan said.

According to Ukrainian commanders, the purpose of the current tactic is to create untenable conditions so that Russia will be forced to actively withdraw its troops across Dnipro in the face of an expected Ukrainian counterattack.

In eastern Ukraine, Russia is now focused on gaining ground in the Donetsk region, and there has been heavy fighting in recent days around the town of Pisky. The Russian Defense Ministry said on August 13 that the town had fallen. However, the New York Times said it could not independently verify the claim.

Hit Russia's weak spot

Ukraine's modus operandi is becoming increasingly clear: to carry out attacks that undermine Moscow's ability to sustain the forces it has deployed at the front.

“We look for the Russians’ weaknesses, identify their vital points and gradually drain their resources,” said Andrii Ryzhenk, a former top Ukrainian military official who is now an adviser at the Center for Defense Strategy, a Ukrainian think tank.

This approach is also encouraged by Western officials. Mr. Reznikov, the Ukrainian defense minister, said that both the U.S. and British defense secretaries advised him: “The Russians use meat grinder tactics – if Ukraine tries to fight Russia with the same tactics, we will not be able to help Ukraine.”

Crucial to Russia’s efforts to control territory in southern Ukraine is Moscow’s control of Crimea, the peninsula it annexed in 2014. Ahead of its military operation in Ukraine in late February, Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops to the peninsula, and within days Moscow took control of a swath of southern territory such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Since then, the railways from Crimea have become crucial in allowing Moscow to move weapons and heavy equipment into southern Ukraine. Last week, Britain’s Defence Intelligence Agency said Ukraine had attacked a key railway from the peninsula, making “the Kherson-Crimea railway line unlikely to remain operational”.

Russia could quickly repair the railway, the agency said, but the attack exposed a serious vulnerability.

The southern Ukrainian battlefield is now essentially cut in half, with the Dnipro River dividing the way. Even if Russia attempts to significantly repair the strategic bridges that Ukrainian forces have attacked, the structures will remain a potential weak point, British intelligence said./.