Vietnam had a trade surplus of 865 million USD in the first two months of the year. However, sustainable trade surplus is still what macroeconomic managers are aiming for.

Exports slow down

In the context of many difficulties in exports, in the first two months of the year, the total export turnover still reached 23.66 billion USD, up 2.9% compared to the same period in 2015. The import turnover of goods is estimated at nearly 22.8 billion USD, down 6.6% compared to the same period in 2015. Therefore, Vietnam has achieved a trade surplus of nearly 900 million USD. However, structural analysis shows that the trade surplus trend is not really sustainable.

Textiles and garments are among the export products with high growth rates in 2015.

According to statistics, the export turnover of the processed industrial goods group is estimated at nearly 19.1 billion USD, a growth rate of only about 5.4%, quite low compared to 2015. Among 42 export commodity groups, there are 21 commodity groups with decreased export value. Some commodity groups with a fairly high growth rate in 2015 are showing a slowing growth trend such as phones, components, computers, electronic components, video cameras, etc. This may affect Vietnam's export growth in the last months of the year.

“There are many products with export turnover decreasing compared to the same period in 2015 such as: animal feed and raw materials, chemicals, fertilizers of all kinds, raw plastics, clinker and cement…”, said a representative of the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In addition, there is an objective factor that the selling prices of most commodity groups have decreased, which has significantly affected the export value. In particular, the sharpest decrease is in ores and minerals, crude oil, gasoline, iron and steel, rubber, coffee, various types of textile fibers, cassava, rice, pepper...

On the other hand, it is worth noting that the trade surplus is largely due to the activities of FDI enterprises. According to statistics, in the first two months of the year, the domestic enterprise sector had a trade deficit of 2.1 billion USD, while the FDI sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 2.9 billion USD. This shows that domestic enterprises are still in the stage of having to invest in production, need to import a lot of machinery, equipment, raw materials and need more time to be able to have a trade surplus.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, affirmed: "We must closely monitor market developments from now until the end of the year because the trade surplus in the first two months of the year is not sustainable."

Curbing trade deficit

In the first two months of the year, the import turnover of the group of goods that need to be imported is estimated at nearly 19.95 billion USD, down 7.3% compared to the same period in 2015. Meanwhile, the turnover of the group of goods that are restricted from import reached nearly 1.1 billion USD, up 3.1% compared to the same period in 2015.

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, in addition to boosting exports, it is still necessary to restrain imports at an appropriate level. “In 2015, we saw a massive import of steel, especially steel billets, threatening domestic production. Therefore, in 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will control imports more strictly,” Mr. Hai said.

According to economist Nguyen Minh Phong, the trade surplus is mainly due to the FDI sector, while the domestic enterprise sector is insignificant. This has the potential to be unsustainable because when FDI enterprises reduce investment, the trade deficit will return. According to Mr. Phong, to assess the sustainability of the trade surplus, it is necessary to base on the ability of these two groups of enterprises to continue to have a trade surplus or trade deficit. For FDI enterprises, items such as mobile phones, electronic components... which have contributed greatly to Vietnam's export growth in recent times are showing signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, domestic enterprises are not yet strong enough to increase exports to replace the slowing growth of the FDI group.

Therefore, what needs to be done now is that domestic enterprises need to learn and take advantage of the benefits from the free trade agreements that Vietnam has signed to boost exports to new markets.

Mr. Le Quoc Phuong, Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), analyzed: There are two groups of luxury goods that contribute to the increase in Vietnam's imports, which are cars and phones. In addition to the reduction of tariff barriers, it is also due to increased consumer demand. When consumer confidence is stable, the trend of using luxury goods will continue to increase. Therefore, in the coming time, this group of goods will still have to control imports.

On the other hand, according to Mr. Phuong, to promote domestic enterprises to have a trade surplus, it is necessary to shift the export of raw materials and processed products to deep processing and high-tech content. “To do this, it is necessary to develop supporting industries, reduce the import of raw materials and components. State agencies need to propose reasonable import control measures through the application of non-tariff measures such as implementing technical standards and food hygiene and safety. Currently, these steps in Vietnam are very weak.”

According to Baotintuc.vn