In the first two months of the year, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of $865 million. However, achieving a sustainable trade surplus remains the goal that macroeconomic policymakers are striving for.

Exports slow down.

Despite export difficulties, in the first two months of the year, export turnover reached US$23.66 billion, an increase of 2.9% compared to the same period in 2015. Import turnover was estimated at nearly US$22.8 billion, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the same period in 2015. Therefore, Vietnam achieved a trade surplus of nearly US$900 million. However, structural analysis shows that the trade surplus trend is not yet truly sustainable.

Textiles and garments were among the export goods with high growth rates in 2015.

According to statistics, the export value of processed industrial goods is estimated at nearly 19.1 billion USD, a growth of only about 5.4%, quite low compared to 2015. Of the 42 export product groups, 21 groups saw a decrease in export value. Some product groups that experienced significant growth in 2015 are now showing signs of slowing growth, such as telephones, components, computers, electronic components, and video cameras. This could affect Vietnam's export growth in the remaining months of the year.

"Many items saw a decrease in export value compared to the same period in 2015, such as animal feed and raw materials, chemicals, fertilizers, raw plastics, clinker and cement...", a representative from the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated.

Furthermore, an objective factor is the decrease in selling prices across most product groups, which has significantly impacted export value. The sharpest declines were seen in ores and minerals, crude oil, petroleum products, iron and steel, rubber, coffee, textile fibers, cassava, rice, and pepper.

On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the trade surplus is largely due to the activities of FDI enterprises. According to statistics, in the first two months of the year, the domestic enterprise sector had a trade deficit of $2.1 billion, while the FDI sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of $2.9 billion. This shows that domestic enterprises are still in the stage of investing in production, need to import a lot of machinery, equipment, and raw materials, and need more time before they can achieve a trade surplus.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, affirmed: "We must closely monitor market developments from now until the end of the year because the trade surplus in the first two months of the year is not yet sustainable."

Curbing the trade deficit

In the first two months of the year, the import value of goods that need to be imported reached nearly $19.95 billion, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period in 2015. Meanwhile, the import value of goods subject to import restrictions reached nearly $1.1 billion, an increase of 3.1% compared to the same period in 2015.

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, in addition to boosting exports, imports must still be kept at an appropriate level. "In 2015, we saw a massive influx of steel imports, especially steel billets, threatening domestic production. Therefore, in 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will control imports more strictly," Mr. Hai said.

According to economist Nguyen Minh Phong, the trade surplus is mainly due to the FDI sector, while the domestic business sector is weak. This poses a potential risk of unsustainability because when FDI businesses reduce investment, a trade deficit will return. According to Mr. Phong, assessing the sustainability of the trade surplus requires considering the ability of these two groups of businesses to continue generating or decreasing trade surpluses. For FDI businesses, items such as mobile phones and electronic components, which have contributed significantly to Vietnam's export growth in recent years, are showing signs of slowing growth. Meanwhile, domestic businesses are still not strong enough to compete in exports to compensate for the slowdown in FDI growth.

Therefore, what needs to be done now is for domestic businesses to understand and take advantage of the benefits from the free trade agreements that Vietnam has signed to boost exports to new markets.

Mr. Le Quoc Phuong, Deputy Director of the Center for Industrial and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), analyzed: Two groups of luxury goods contribute to the increase in Vietnam's imports: automobiles and mobile phones. Besides the reduction in tariff barriers, this is also due to increased consumer demand. When consumer confidence stabilizes, the trend of using luxury goods will continue to increase. Therefore, in the coming period, imports of these goods will still need to be controlled.

On the other hand, according to Mr. Phuong, to promote a trade surplus for domestic enterprises, it is necessary to shift the export of raw materials and processed products towards deep processing and high-tech content. “To achieve this, we must develop supporting industries and reduce imports of raw materials and components. State agencies need to implement reasonable import control measures through the application of non-tariff measures such as implementing technical standards and food safety and hygiene standards. Currently, Vietnam is very weak in these areas.”

According to Baotintuc.vn