Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict amid the vortex of major powers

This is considered the most serious incident since 2016. With developments showing no signs of cooling down, the international community is calling on all sides to exercise restraint and ceasefire. However, the situation is becoming increasingly complicated due to the strategic calculations of foreign countries.

KNagorny region-Karabakh is located deep within Azerbaijan's territory and is administered by that country.Source: Al Jazeera

Contradictions piled up

It is not until now that the relationship between the two neighboring countries Armenia and Azerbaijan has been on the rise. Looking back at history, the conflicts have existed between the two sides since they were part of the former Soviet Union. At that time, the Nagorny-Karabakh region was located deep in the southwestern territory of Azerbaijan and was administered by this country. However, the majority of the population in this region was of Armenian origin, so they always cherished the desire to annex Armenia. This fact has caused a sovereignty dispute between the two sides.

Under the timeSoviet Union, the borders between the countries were actually only administrative boundaries, however when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, these boundaries became national borders. Since then, the sovereignty dispute has become more and more serious, culminating in a war that lasted until May 1994. Despite the ceasefire agreement reached in 1994 and many subsequent peace negotiations mediated by the Minsk Group, the conflict continues in this area. Furthermore, the majority of Azerbaijanis are Muslim, while Armenians are Christian, leading to deep religious and ethnic conflicts.

The last straw was when on September 27, fierce fighting broke out between the forces.Armenia and Azerbaijanrelated to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Both sides have accused each other of attacks from the other side across the common border. A series of countries such as Russia, France and the United States have asked the forces of both sides to immediately cease fire and called for a return to negotiations without delay. Or on September 29, in a statement unanimously approved by all 15 member countries, the United Nations Security Council expressed support for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' call that the parties need to immediately end the fighting, reduce tensions and quickly return to negotiations. The countries also "strongly condemn the use of force and regret the civilian casualties" in recent days. However, despite the international community's call, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has flatly rejected any possibility of negotiations. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also declared that negotiations cannot take place while fighting continues.

Azerbaijani army in the Nagorny-Karabakh region. Source: AFP

Explaining why the conflict has broken out at this time and is much more serious than previous times, observers say that it seems that Azerbaijan has now consolidated its strong military force and is determined to regain its position and influence in the region. More importantly, there is an opinion that this country is receiving strong support from another neighboring country, Türkiye. Meanwhile, one side of the conflict, Armenia, has always had a good alliance with Russia!

Proxy war?

Looking back at recent times,Türkiye- The neighboring country of both Armenia and Azerbaijan has made remarkable moves and steps related to the Nagorny-Karabakh hotspot. While almost all countries and the international community have called on both sides to restrain and end the conflict, Türkiye alone is not afraid to declare that it stands on Azerbaijan's side and is ready to help this country. Not only has it continuously made statements supporting Azerbaijan in all aspects, especially politics, Turkey has recently also announced that it will provide military support to its neighbor in all cases. In a recent development, the Armenian Ministry of Defense also announced that a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Su-25 aircraft of the Armenian Air Force. The incident occurred in Armenian airspace when the country's Air Force aircraft was performing a military mission, killing the pilot. Of course, for his part, Turkish President Fahrettin Altun's media advisor denied it and emphasized that this information is "completely incorrect". Immediately afterwards, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense also denied this information.

Türkiye and Russia are at risk of being caught in the Nagorno-Karabakh tension spiral. Source: En24.news

Although it is not yet known who is right or wrong, according to analysts, these are clearly steps that demonstrate Ankara's ambition in hot regional issues as it did in Libya, Syria... to demonstrate Ankara's role and voice in front of a Russia that has strong influence. Especially when the conflict in the hot spot of Nagorny - Karabakh threatens to affect the oil and gas corridor in the region leading to large markets around the world.

Türkiye clearly wants to gain control of the region with Azerbaijan, while reducing its dependence on Russia in energy issues. Not to mention, "intensifying" the conflict in Nagorny - Karabakh is also a way to pressure Russia to make concessions on the Middle East - North Africa battlefields. It is understandable, because Russia also has many hot issues to worry about such asSyria, Libya or the Belarus issue... The Armenia-Azerbaijan tension will only cause difficulties and make Russia more worried.

For its part, Russia has always had good relations with both countries, although it has closer relations with Armenia due to being a member of the Collective Security Organization (CSTO). However, Moscow still advocates balancing relations with both sides, as it does not want to be forced to accept refugees from the disputed region, especially when the Covid-19 pandemic is still complicated and the economy has not yet returned to normal.

Therefore, although Türkiye has many ways to drag Russia into this complicated vortex, perhaps President Putin is sober enough to maintain the role of mediator. If there is any involvement from Russia, it will have to wait until Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, "calls for help". Of course, at that time, Russia will act cautiously in accordance with the agreements in the CSTO. Because more than anyone, Mr. Putin understands that once a hot collision occurs, the fire of conflict will have the opportunity to flare up throughout the already hot Central Asia region. And this will be a scenario where everyone will be the loser!