Israel-Palestine Conflict: The Crisis Has Begun

The violence began with a Palestinian march on March 30, the start of a six-week protest that will last until the opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem on May 14. US President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital in December 2017 was met with strong opposition from Palestinians who see East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli soldiers are a dangerous sign for the Middle East (Getty Images)

Thousands of Palestinians, including women and children, took to six different areas of the eastern Gaza Strip, bordering Israel, over the weekend to join a peaceful march to send a message to the world that Palestinians have legitimate rights, including the right to return home. The first day of the protest marked Palestinian “Land Day,” when the Israeli government announced the confiscation of land in the Galilee and Negev in 1976, leading to large-scale Palestinian protests in Israel.

In response to these developments, the Israeli army has declared a state of alert and increased its forces near the border fence with the Gaza Strip to respond to security risks, especially protesters breaking down the security fence.

Clashes broke out when Israeli soldiers at the border fired tear gas to stop Palestinian protesters from approaching the border fence. Many protesters then threw rocks at Israeli forces. At least 16 people were killed and more than 1,400 injured in the clashes.

Israel said protesters had carried out violence in six different areas along the border and that the Israeli government had banned the demonstrations, considering them a ploy by the Hamas Islamist movement to launch military operations in Gaza. The statement also denied that the Israeli army had used excessive force against protesters, claiming that those killed were involved in the violence.

However, on the same day, many countries and organizations in the region such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab Parliament strongly criticized the Israeli army's actions in suppressing protesters. The OIC's announcement called for an investigation to clarify the incidents and requested the United Nations Security Council to intervene to end the current violence. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also condemned the incident, calling it an "inhumane attack" by Israel in Gaza.

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting on March 30 but was unable to pass any statement or document condemning the Israeli military's crackdown due to US obstruction. According to the "Times of Israel" website, the Palestinian Authority criticized US Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Haley, saying that the US Ambassador "firmly supported the occupation and defended Israel's crimes and violations of law", and that Ms. Haley was responsible for the UN Security Council's rejection of the draft statement. A number of Arab countries also criticized Israel's violence against Palestinian protesters in the Gaza Strip.

Inevitable outcome

The Palestinian protests have been long anticipated since US President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel last year and hastened the move of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018. Violence is expected to continue until then. But that is only one reason why Palestinians have taken to the streets. The lack of a credible peace deal is the explanation for this latest conflict.

Palestinian protesters run from Israeli tear gas in eastern Gaza City on April 1 (AFP)

This happened in 2000, when the Palestinian uprising against Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (known as the Second Intifada) broke out, and in 2014, when the Third Intifada broke out. What sets this latest unrest apart from previous crises is the timing and context. March 30 marks the start of six weeks of protests ahead of the 70th anniversary of Bakba Day on May 15, a day Arabs consider a "catastrophe" that marks the forced displacement of tens of thousands of Palestinians during the 1948 war with Israel and the subsequent declaration of Israel's independence on May 14, 1948. It is also an expression of the Trump administration's blatant bias against Israel over the past year. All of these reasons converge at the point of conflict between the Palestinians and the Jewish State at this moment.

Will there be an 'Arab Spring' in 2018?

History has reminded us that the instability in the Middle East will only get worse if the Palestinians choose to confront the state of Israel. If this happens, neighboring Arab countries will be drawn into a conflict with no end in sight. The biggest concern is in Lebanon, where the Hezbollah movement – ​​one of Israel’s sworn enemies but a close ally of Iran – could strike.

Israeli defense officials see Hezbollah's advanced arsenal of an estimated 130,000 medium- and long-range missiles and 50,000 fighters as the main threat. Meanwhile, Israel's construction of a Gaza-like fence along its northern border and disputes over offshore oil and gas fields continue to be sources of tension in the region. If the violence in Gaza continues and spreads, Hezbollah's hard-line factions are likely to take advantage of the situation to 'jump in'.

Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership has repeatedly warned that, unlike the last Lebanon war in 2006, Iran will directly support Hezbollah in any war. Israel’s position on its arch-rival Iran has also been made clear. The Jewish state cannot accept a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria and Lebanon as a ‘natural course’. And deterrence is only a matter of time.

The possibility of calling on the US to participate in this process as a real mediator has also been completely eliminated with President Trump's decision on Jerusalem. Not to mention another 'bomb' that is about to explode next May when on May 12, the US President may reject the Iran nuclear deal, a move that could upset the entire Middle East chessboard. Uncertainty and pessimism still await this unstable region./.