Italy vs Norway: Haaland direct ticket, 2-2 prediction
Norway have won all seven of their games, scoring 33 goals and needing just one more to set a 21st-century UEFA qualifying record; Gennaro Gattuso's Italy have won six straight. The match at San Siro is at 02:45 on 17 November.
Norway are closing in on a direct berth at the 2026 World Cup after a run of seven wins and 33 goals in qualifying. Italy, on a run of six straight wins under new coach Gennaro Gattuso, are looking for revenge at the San Siro, with the Azzurri likely looking for a consolation prize ahead of the play-offs. The Azzurri lost the first leg 3-0 – a shock that has triggered a change in management.
| Tournament | Ring | Location | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 World Cup European Qualifiers (UEFA) | Final round of Group I | San Siro, Milan, Italy | 02:45 November 17 (Vietnam time) |
Style and context
Italy returned to winning ways with a six-game winning streak after their first-leg defeat to Norway. They had just beaten Moldova 2-0 and had to wait until the end of the game to decide, but their consistency and ability to score goals were still maintained.
Norway were more impressive: winning 7/7 of their qualifying matches, scoring 33 goals and needing just one more to set a 21st-century UEFA qualifying scoring record. A nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions (W8 D1) cemented their momentum.
Recent confrontations
The only qualifying encounter between the two sides was the first leg, where Norway beat Italy 3-0 at home. This result became a major milestone in the group and directly influenced Italy's decision to change coach.
Expected forces and lineup
Italy are missing a number of key players: Sandro Tonali is absent due to suspension for the play-offs; Moise Kean and Niccolo Cambiaghi are injured. Nicolo Barella returns from suspension and could replace Tonali. Coach Gennaro Gattuso is likely to prioritize players who are at risk of receiving cards to preserve his squad for the play-offs.
Norway are without Martin Odegaard due to a knee injury, but the attack is still performing well with Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth, while centre-back Leo Ostigard returns.
Expected lineup
Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Cristante; Politano, Retegui, Raspadori.
Norway (4-4-2): Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Bjorkan; Bobb, Berg, Berge, Nusa; Sorloth, Haaland.
Tactics and Hotspots
4-3-3: ball control, pressing and transition
Under Gattuso, Italy prioritised midfield control, pressing high when out of possession and accelerating in transition. Barella’s mobility and Locatelli and Cristante’s ball-moving ability were key to unleashing pace from the flanks for Politano and Raspadori, while also serving Mateo Retegui’s finishing.
Norway 4-4-2: direct, speedy, counter-attacking
Norway operates a direct style of play with the Haaland-Sorloth duo. They are ready to use the pass, accelerate from the flanks (Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa) and launch quick counter-attacks. Aggressive pressing and rapid transitions are the foundation for creating a large number of opportunities for Haaland in the penalty area.
Three key battles
- Median: Barella – Locatelli – Cristante vs Berg – Berge. Italy needs to control the tempo to limit Norway's counter-attacks.
- Haaland vs Italian central defenders: Bastoni – Mancini must read the situation well, cover and keep his distance if he doesn't want to pay the price for Haaland's lightning-fast movements.
- Border corridor: Di Lorenzo and Dimarco face Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa. Crosses and incursions from the flanks can decide the game.
Players to watch
- Erling Haaland (Norway): 14 goals in qualifying; needs 2 more to equal Robert Lewandowski's record of 16. Ability to pounce in the box can decide the game.
- Mateo Retegui (Italy): 5 goals and 4 assists in qualifying. Spearhead role in Gattuso's 4-3-3 system.
- Nicolo Barella (Italy): Returning from suspension, provided energy, tackling and passing to keep Italy in control of midfield.
- Alexander Sorloth (Norway): Coordinates well with Haaland; scored a double against Estonia, good at pressing to open up space.
Selected numbers
- Norway: won 7/7 qualifying matches, scored 33 goals; 9-match unbeaten streak in all competitions (won 8, drew 1).
- Italy: won 6 consecutive matches after losing the first leg against Norway; most recently won 2-0 at the end of the match against Moldova.
- Qualifying match: Norway won 3-0 in the first leg.
Comments and score predictions
Norway are all but assured of a direct qualification, while Italy are looking to build confidence ahead of the play-offs. With both sides performing well in attack, an open game is likely to be played at the San Siro.
Prediction: Italy 2-2 Norway.
