Italy vs Norway: Haaland heads for direct qualification, predicted 2-2.
Norway have won all 7 matches, scoring 33 goals and need just one more to set a 21st-century UEFA qualifying record; Gennaro Gattuso's Italy have won 6 consecutive matches. The match at San Siro is at 02:45 on November 17th.
Norway is close to securing direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup after a run of seven consecutive wins and 33 goals in the qualifiers. Italy, with six consecutive wins under new coach Gennaro Gattuso, are aiming for revenge at home in San Siro, likely seeking only a consolation victory ahead of the play-offs. The first leg ended in a 0-3 defeat for the Azzurri – a shock that triggered a change on the coaching bench.
| Tournament | Ring | Location | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 World Cup Qualifiers (UEFA) | Final round of Group I | San Siro, Milan, Italy | 02:45 AM on November 17th (Vietnam time) |
Form and context
Italy returned to winning ways with a run of six consecutive matches after their first-leg defeat against Norway. They just beat Moldova 2-0 and had to wait until the end of the match to decide the outcome, but their consistency and goal-scoring ability remained intact.
Norway were even more impressive: winning all 7 of their qualifying matches, scoring 33 goals and needing just one more to set a UEFA qualifying goalscoring record in the 21st century. Their nine-match unbeaten run across all competitions (8 wins, 1 draw) further solidified their momentum.
Recent confrontations
The only qualifying encounter between the two teams was the first leg, where Norway beat Italy 3-0 at home. This result became a major milestone in the group and directly influenced Italy's decision to change their coach.
Expected force and formation
Italy are missing several key players: Sandro Tonali is absent due to a potential suspension for the play-offs; Moise Kean and Niccolo Cambiaghi are injured. Nicolo Barella returns from suspension and could replace Tonali. Coach Gennaro Gattuso is likely to prioritize players who are unlikely to receive yellow cards in order to preserve his squad for the play-offs.
Norway were without Martin Odegaard due to a knee injury. However, their attack remained strong with Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth, while center-back Leo Ostigard returned.
Predicted lineup
Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Cristante; Politano, Retegui, Raspadori.
Norway (4-4-2): Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Bjorkan; Bobb, Berg, Berge, Nusa; Sorloth, Haaland.
Tactics and hotspots
The 4-3-3 formation focuses on ball control, pressing, and transitions.
Under Gattuso, Italy prioritized midfield control, high-pressure pressing when out of possession, and increased speed in transitions. Barella's mobility and Locatelli and Cristante's ball distribution were key to freeing up speed from the flanks for Politano and Raspadori, while also supporting Mateo Retegui's finishing ability.
Norway 4-4-2: direct, fast-paced, counter-attacking.
Norway employs a direct style of play with the Haaland-Sorloth duo. They readily utilize long passes, bursts of speed from the flanks (Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa), and quick counter-attacks. Aggressive pressing and rapid transitions create numerous opportunities for Haaland in the penalty area.
Three crucial matches
- MedianBarella – Locatelli – Cristante vs. Berg – Berge. Italy needs to control the tempo to limit Norway's counter-attacks.
- Haaland vs the Italian central defendersBastoni and Mancini must read the game well, provide cover, and maintain distance if they don't want to pay the price for Haaland's lightning-fast movements.
- border corridorDi Lorenzo and Dimarco face Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa. Crosses and runs down the flanks could decide the game.
Players worth watching
- Erling Haaland (Norway)14 goals in the qualifying rounds; needs two more to equal Robert Lewandowski's record of 16. His ability to capitalize on opportunities in the penalty area can decide the game.
- Mateo Retegui (Italy): 5 goals and 4 assists in the qualifying round. Playing the role of a striker in Gattuso's 4-3-3 system.
- Nicolo Barella (Italy)Returning after a suspension, he provided energy, contested for the ball, and passed it around, allowing Italy to control the midfield.
- Alexander Sorloth (Norway)Excellent link-up play with Haaland; previously scored a brace against Estonia, dangerous in physical challenges to create space.
Selected numbers
- Norway: won 7 out of 7 qualifying matches, scoring 33 goals; a nine-match unbeaten streak across all competitions (8 wins, 1 draw).
- Italy: won 6 consecutive matches after losing the first leg against Norway; their most recent match was a late 2-0 victory against Moldova.
- Head-to-head in the qualifiers: Norway won the first leg 3-0.
Analysis and score prediction
Norway are almost certain to qualify directly, while Italy are looking to build confidence ahead of the play-offs. With both sides boasting high-performing attacking lines, an open game is likely at San Siro.
Prediction: Italy 2-2 Norway.
