5 hot spots that could spark World War III

Tensions over North Korea's missile and nuclear programs and complicated developments in the Middle East could be the "kindling" that ignites the risk of World War III, an American expert said.

MagazineNational InterestAccording to Mr. Robert Farley, an American national security and defense expert, in 2018 the world is at risk of facing a major conflict breaking out from the five crises considered the "hottest" today.

Chosen

A North Korean missile launch. Photo: Reuters

North Korea is arguably the most serious policy crisis the world faces today. North Korea’s successful development of ballistic missiles coupled with the Trump administration’s limited diplomatic experience makes the situation even more dangerous.

While North Korea appears to show no signs of giving in to US pressure, officials in the Trump administration have repeatedly issued contradictory policy statements on North Korea.

As both sides issue threats of mutual destruction, experts warn that the current situation could lead to miscalculations and the inevitable risk of military conflict and the involvement of countries in the region.

Taiwan

Taiwan has expressed concern over China's recent military exercises. Illustration photo: Getty

Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating recently after President Donald Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2018 on December 12, which allows US and Taiwanese naval ships to conduct mutual visits and joint exercises.

China has lodged a protest with Washington over the move. Chinese Embassy Minister Li Kexin warned last week that Beijing would use military force if the US sent naval vessels to Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has grown increasingly concerned about China's military presence, including air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island in recent months.

Ukraine

Tensions in eastern Ukraine show no signs of easing. Photo: Getty

Tensions in Ukraine show no signs of abating as fighting in the east of the country between armed groups continues. Meanwhile, in Kiev, a series of protests, marches and scandals surrounding former President George Mikheil Saakashvili have raised doubts about the stability of the Ukrainian government.

A conflict could go in several directions. The Ukrainian government could collapse, which would theoretically benefit Russia but could lead to violent unrest. A government collapse could also allow right-wing hardliners to take power and worsen the crisis in the east.

NATO southern flank

Türkiye plays an important role in the region. Illustration photo: EPA

Relations between the US and Türkiye have shown signs of collapse over the past year. Türkiye’s lack of interest in the EU and the US could lead to a major shift in the balance of power in the region.

Türkiye is seen as a key player and its direction influences the outcome of conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Iran, the Balkans and the Caucasus.

This development could affect how southern European countries think about their commitment to NATO. This unpredictability could cause Moscow or Washington to calculate their own power. This unpredictability could lead to miscalculation by the US and Russia.

Gulf Region

Illustration photo: Arab News

Tensions in the Middle East are almost always seen as a breeding ground for larger power conflicts. As the Syrian civil war winds down, attention has shifted to tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Saudi Arabia seems to have a “trigger finger,” and it seems to seek Tehran’s hand after every failure. For its part, Iran continues to expand its influence in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.

For its part, the administration of US President Donald Trump basically accepts the victory of President Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, while on the other hand seeking to prevent Iran from expanding its influence in the region.

Could Saudi Arabia and Iran go to war? Wars have broken out in the Gulf before without engulfing the rest of the world, but Saudi Arabia has clearly shown a willingness to build a diplomatic and military coalition against Iran, perhaps including Israel. With Russia reasserting its position in the region, a great power clash is highly likely.

According to Dan Tri