Three scenarios for Russia-US relations: Armed clash?

The US Navy's launch of a series of missiles at a Syrian airbase has pushed US-Russia relations into new tensions, including the risk of war.

Russian experts believe that the surprise US missile strike on a Syrian airbase following allegations of the Syrian government's use of chemical weapons will have a serious impact on US-Russia relations.

Russian tanks fire. Photo: Daily Tech.

These experts have given several possible scenarios for the future, the worst of which is a direct clash between Russian and American troops.

Scenario 1: Armed clash between Russia and the US

Russian experts do not rule out the possibility that Moscow will respond to Washington’s attack on its Syrian ally with a show of military might. Alexei Fenenko, an expert at the RAS Institute for International Security Affairs, said that if the US carries out another attack, Russia may decide to shoot down some of the US cruise missiles. For now, Moscow will significantly increase its military efforts in Syria.

The US has planned a show of force aimed atarmySyriasince 2013. That is why the attack in the early morning of April 7 is seen as the beginning of an American military adventure abroad.

However, “sooner or later the logic of confrontation will force Russia to respond with force,” Fenenko said.

Furthermore, a possible conflict between the two powers would not necessarily reach the level of a nuclear holocaust. This conflict scenario could resemble events that occurred during the Spanish Civil War between 1936 and 1939, whenair forceThe Soviet Union confronted the fascist armies of Italy and Germany without formally declaring war.

At the same time, Fenenko warned, we cannot completely rule out the risk of using nuclear weapons in this “proxy” war. The armies of both sides always have the right to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Scenario 2: Staggering on the Edge of the Abyss

Experts note that the US carried out the attack without consulting with Russia, and also did not take into account the possible impact of this bombing on the internal situation in Syria and future relations between Washington and Moscow.

Dmitri Suslov, an international relations expert at the Higher School of Economics, said the attack meant that Donald Trump’s team “will pursue a hard-line unilateral policy through the use of military force in defiance of international law, essentially becoming a watered-down version of the Bush administration.”

After abruptly changing its approach to the Syrian president, Washington is likely to once again attempt to overthrow him.

Russiahas no intention of backing down in Syria - they will increase their military presence there.

In response, the US is unlikely to back down because Mr. Trump's main goal now is to "show that he is not weak".

In that context, a serious escalation of political-military tensions in Russia-US relations in Syria is very likely.

Expert Suslov does not rule out the possibility that the above situation could lead to a “repetition of tensions” during the Cuban Missile Crisis 55 years ago, when Moscow deployed missiles to Cuba and the two superpowers, the US andSoviet Unionon the brink of nuclear war. At that time, the two sides avoided war because Moscow withdrew missiles from “Freedom Island”, and Washington withdrew missiles from Türkiye.

Scenario 3: Diplomatic solution

However, not all experts believe that Russia is preparing a military response to the US in Syria.

Alexander Konovalov, president of the independent Institute for Strategic Assessment, said Moscow would limit itself to what it had already done: withdrawing from a flight safety memorandum with the US military. He said Russia would not expand its military presence in Syria because “the US has not launched a war in Syria, it has only carried out a single operation.”

In any case, Russia will appeal to international institutions, raise the issue of US aggression against Syria at the UN Security Council, and talk to Washington about investigating the use of poison gas in Syria. However, the question remains: How will the US respond to these Russian efforts?

Vladimir Sotnikov of the RAS Institute for Middle East Studies commented that relations between the two countries now depend on the visit of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to Moscow. His mission there is very important.

“On the one hand, Tillerson will have to explain Trump’s decision (on the airstrike on the Syrian base); on the other hand, he will have to maintain relations with Moscow,” Sotnikov said. Sotnikov stressed that the US needs Russia to resolve the Syrian crisis. Washington will have to find common ground with Moscow on the Syrian issue./.

According to VOV