Shooting down Russian plane, Türkiye's reckless move

(Baonghean) - While public opinion was focused on the Middle East, anxiously awaiting the consequences that IS would have to bear from the "joint hands" of Russia and France in air strikes, Türkiye suddenly appeared and turned all attention to itself by shooting down a Russian plane. Reckless, strange, unexpected... - people used many different adjectives to describe Türkiye's actions, and more importantly, everyone wanted to understand Turkey's motives even though they knew for sure that they would have to suffer unpleasant consequences from Russia.

The boundary is difficult to define.

Explaining the shooting down of the Russian Su-24, Türkiye said that the Russian plane had violated Turkish airspace. The country's fighter jets issued 10 warnings in a span of 5 minutes, asking them to leave, but the Russian pilots ignored the warnings. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke out to affirm that this military action was completely reasonable, and "everyone must respect Turkey's right to protect its borders." However, information from Russia is completely the opposite.

The head of the Russian General Staff said that radio reconnaissance data from the Hmeymim Airport in Syria showed that it was the Turkish fighter jet that violated Syrian airspace when it attacked the Russian plane. The Russian Defense Ministry also released a video proving that the Su-24 fighter jet was still in Syrian airspace before it was shot down.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself said that the Russian plane was flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters and 1 kilometer from the Turkish border. After being shot down, the Russian plane crashed 4 kilometers from the Turkish border.

Location of the Russian plane shot down. Photo: AFP

Believe Russia or believe Türkiye - it is not a simple decision, because it is difficult to measure exactly whether the Russian plane "slightly crossed" or "closely touched" the Turkish border, even though this is a decisive detail. However, one thing is clear: this is the first time a Russian plane has been shot down by a NATO member since 1950. Turkey must understand how terrible the consequences of this will be, because even the US "respects" Russia somewhat when fighting together in the skies of Syria.

When the "tiger" is "stroked"

Without keeping the world and Türkiye waiting long, Russia immediately expressed its anger. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov decided to cancel his visit to Istanbul on November 25, and called on Russians not to visit Turkey. The Russian Defense Ministry also summoned the Turkish military attaché to demand an explanation for why the Su-24 was shot down.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also strongly declared that Russia had been “stabbed in the back” and would not tolerate Türkiye’s actions, suspending military contacts with Türkiye. Russia also announced that from now on, all operations of the offensive air force will be carried out only under the cover of fighter jets, and warned that any targets that could threaten the Russian air base in Syria would be destroyed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly condemned Türkiye. Photo: AFP

The latest information from the Syrian battlefield shows that Russia's statements are not empty threats. Accordingly, all Turkish fighter jets cannot take off due to being irradiated by the radar of the air defense missile system when taking off.

It would not be surprising if Türkiye feared that its aircraft would be destroyed when it flew towards the Syrian-Turkish border in a scenario similar to the Su-24, which was “accidentally sticking its head” across the border. Russia would also not hesitate to carry out its statement of “blinding” Turkish fighter jets by using suppression and electronic warfare means, using special aircraft to protect the safety of pilots.

Türkiye puts itself in a difficult position

The reason for the downing of the Russian plane by Türkiye is widely believed to be the result of disagreements between Russia and Türkiye over the anti-IS campaign in Syria. It is believed that President Erdogan was “very upset” when he was not consulted about President Putin’s intentions during the meeting between the two leaders in September.

Moreover, when Russia decided to intervene militarily in Syria, Türkiye also saw Russia's actions as supporting the government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad - completely contrary to Türkiye's stance when it wanted Mr. Assad to give up power. Mr. Tayyip Erdogan's "frustration" was further compounded when last October, Russia strongly opposed Turkey's proposal to establish a no-fly zone and safe zone along the Syrian border.

Some other events such as Russia's airstrikes on several villages in Syria where pro-Turkish Turkmen people live, or Türkiye's shooting down of a drone believed to be made by Russia in an area near the Syrian border are also cited to come to the conclusion that: The incident of a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shooting down a Russian Su-24 is the result of differences in stance between Russia and NATO in the war in Syria.

However, in addition to such clearly visible events, people still have many questions about Türkiye's actions, whether there is any force "backing" Turkey to be so reckless, whether the incident is related to the large amount of smuggled oil supply from IS still moving across the border between Syria and Turkey... Of course, few people can give exact answers to these "sensitive" questions.

A Russian Su-24 at a base in Syria. Photo: USA Today

Whatever the reason for its actions, Türkiye is now in a “difficult position”.

First, Türkiye shot down a plane carrying out an attack on IS at a time when the international community’s anti-terrorism spirit was on the rise after the attacks in Paris (France). This significantly affected Türkiye’s image, although in reality Türkiye was not “in solidarity with terrorists” as Russia accused.

Second, Türkiye's argument about its "right to protect its borders" is also not solid when the Russian plane only violated the Turkish border for... 17 seconds - that is, assuming Turkey's information is correct.

Third, public opinion has also revived Türkiye’s reaction in 2012 when its F-4 Phantom was shot down by Syria. At that time, Mr. Erdogan was very angry and accused the Syrian army of being too hasty and said that “unfortunately violating another country’s airspace in such a short period of time cannot be the premise for one country’s aircraft to be shot down by another country.”

So far, although Türkiye has “called for help”, NATO members still have mixed reactions to Türkiye’s actions. Meanwhile, the US has also signaled that it will not intervene, saying that this is a matter between Türkiye and Russia. Although public opinion still predicts that both Russia and Türkiye will not let the situation get to a dangerous level, the direction of events depends more on Türkiye’s next actions. And people are waiting to see how Turkey will save itself.

Thuy Ngoc