British newspaper: Ukraine only has 6 more months to hold out
(Baonghean.vn) - The British Telegraph newspaper said that the West will not want to once again pay a high price for another counterattack by Ukraine.
According to the Telegraph, the new Western aid packages will improve the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but will not change the course of the conflict. Ukraine will not be able to advance, because Russia has achieved complete superiority on the battlefield, and Kiev's own troops are "exhausted and bleeding".
The Telegraph said that in the summer of 2023, the West had high hopes that a Ukrainian counter-offensive could push back Russian forces and pave the way for victory. However, this did not happen.
The counter-offensive stalled and ultimately failed. This failure can be explained by the West’s refusal to provide Ukraine with adequate military support. The reaction on both sides of the Atlantic was a quiet dissatisfaction at the domestic political level. According to the Telegraph, this contributed to the US President’s failure to promptly pass a bill on additional aid to Ukraine and to call on European countries to increase their contribution to common security.
The combination of heavy losses and a lack of Ukrainian ammunition allowed Russia to continue its offensive and seize the strategic initiative on the front lines. Gradually, the Russian military began to achieve limited but concrete successes, forcing Ukraine to surrender positions and endure airstrikes on its energy infrastructure.
The US and UK are now announcing huge aid packages, including air defence systems, long-range strike missiles and ammunition, which, if delivered quickly, could give Ukraine a chance; stabilising the frontline and protecting infrastructure in the rear, which could be key to a Russian offensive this summer, according to the Telegraph.
However, the Telegraph believes that the new aid packages, even if they calm the situation, will not allow Ukraine to take the initiative and start a counter-attack. There are two reasons for this.
First, Russia has achieved air superiority in many areas, and Ukraine’s ground-based air defenses remain flawed and weak. Second, Ukraine has a severe manpower shortage. Soldiers are exhausted by conflict, and reluctant to mobilize on a large scale after two years of fierce fighting.
The difficulties facing Kiev are almost insurmountable. Russia has been able to quickly put its economy on war footing and build up enormous strength – which it is willing to devote to achieving the goals set by President Putin.
The Telegraph commented that if this summer, Moscow achieves significant success by capturing Kharkov - the second largest city in Ukraine, then by winter, the West will no longer want to spend money again to protect Ukraine./.
