Ukrainian Newspaper: The Paradox of the West as a Military Industrial 'Giant'

According to Strana, recently one of the main problems in Western support for Ukraine is the limited capabilities of NATO countries' military reserves, and the alliance's inability to promote increased arms production.

A recent example is the disruption of the EU’s plan to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, a problem acknowledged by both Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba and the German Defense Minister.

However, for many Ukrainians, this situation seems paradoxical. The US and the EU are considered industrial superpowers. Theoretically, it is easy to produce not just millions, but billions of artillery shells. And, apparently, there are no difficult questions in the matter of financing. Moreover, expanding military production means creating new jobs and economic growth.

Strana asks, what is the problem for the West when it comes to increasing military production? Forty years ago, it would have been no problem for the NATO military-industrial complex to produce the necessary weapons for a conflict. But since then, the Western economy has changed a lot.

First, after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, military production in NATO countries decreased sharply. The view was that there would be no more wars like World War II. Therefore, the focus was on developing precision weapons and highly professional armed forces, capable of participating in conflicts such as those in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria.

Second, in recent decades, the process of deindustrialization has gained momentum in the West. It is believed that the EU countries and the United States are moving to a higher level of post-industrial development. On this basis, long-term plans for investment and general economic development have been established.

Therefore, in 2022, boosting weapons production becomes a difficult task for the West.

At the same time, the production of weapons requires trillions of dollars and euros of government money, which is not a normal commodity. Most of it will not be sold on the open market, but will be transferred for free to Ukraine and other Western allies. Some will be added to their military stocks. In fact, this will be a huge “money outflow” that could destroy efforts to stabilize the financial sector.

Strana believes that this is the main problem for Western countries, which are faced with a dilemma: high inflation and a military threat. The West seems to have no idea what to do in such a situation. Therefore, launch military production at full capacity, regardless of the macroeconomic consequences. Or try to freeze the conflict in Ukraine for the time being, prevent the escalation of the conflict in Israel, and start solving problems with the military-industrial complex.

According to Strana, the difficulty of choosing between these options is the main obstacle to increasing military support for Ukraine. What happens next depends on the West's strategic decision on weapons./.