French Election: Experts assess Le Pen's chances of winning a majority in parliament

Even if it fails to win an absolute majority, the National Rally Party could still become the main force in Congress, winning the necessary votes from loyal Republicans, according to Alain Policar.

“They could easily get 25 or more votes from those Republicans who decided to survive due to the party's low turnout (6.57%),” the political scientist said.

In the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, the National Rally received 29.25% of the vote, with another 3.90% from Republican candidates, giving it a commanding lead of 33.15%. Meanwhile, the left-wing coalition received 27.99%. This would give Le Pen's party 240 to 270 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, with 289 votes considered a majority.

“The National Rally Party received more votes than expected thanks to its alliance with part of the Republican Party. What is important is how the second round will be organized. There will be a large number of constituencies with three candidates, more than ever before,” said Alain Policar.

Left-wing and Macronist parties must decide by Tuesday evening whether to retain or withdraw the third-placed candidates in their constituencies to prevent the right from winning in the second round.

The situation will remain extremely volatile, but the unprecedented turnout in the National Assembly elections, exceeding 66%, means the French need change, according to Mr. Policar.

“The politics of which Macron is the face is no longer French. From this point of view, it is no longer legitimate. Even those who oppose the National Rally understand that this is a completely democratic phenomenon – a general rejection of Macron’s policies.” Macron’s turnout is 20% – that is, one in five voters, and if you take into account those who did not vote, he is completely rejected,” Policar concluded.

The second round of parliamentary elections in France will take place on July 7.