'Super Tuesday' Election: Identifying the Two-Horse Race!

This victory can be said to be creating a very good momentum for candidate Biden in the upcoming long race, when there are still about 60% of the delegates left to be cast nationwide. The results of this Super Election day have also clearly shaped the two-horse race between Mr. Biden and candidate Bernie Sanders, to find the only candidate chosen to represent the Democratic Party to confront President Donald Trump later this year.

Candidate screening

As Super Tuesday wrapped up in 15 US states and territories and foreign delegates, the internal race among Democratic candidates has gradually revealed the leading candidates. As expected, the two most prominent figures, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders, have excelled in leading the race.

Former Vice President Joe Biden. Photo: AP

The two candidates shared victory in the two most important states: Texas with 228 delegates and California with 415 delegates. In total, as of yesterday afternoon (March 4), candidate Joe Biden had received the support of at least 450 delegates. In second place was Senator Sanders with more than 380 votes. Senator Elizabeth Warren temporarily rose to third place with at least 50 votes.

With the No. 1 position, candidate Joe Biden won in 10 states including Texas, Virginia, Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Massachusetts and Maine. Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Sanders won in 4 states: Colorado, Vermont, Utah, California. The most disappointing was billionaire Michael Bloomberg with a large investment on Super Tuesday but only won in the territory of Samoa, with 5 out of 6 delegates of this area. Up to now, candidate Bloomberg has only reached the threshold of 30 votes.

With this result, according to observers, perhaps sooner or later, the three weak candidates, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and Senator Elizabeth Warren, will soon leave the race. This also means that the upcoming race will basically be a two-horse race between the two most promising candidates, Mr. Joe Biden and Mr. Bernie Sanders. However, according to analysts, the gap with Mr. Joe Biden after Super Tuesday is not small, making the upcoming race of candidate Bernie Sanders will face many difficulties if there is no breakthrough in the upcoming states.

Senator Bernie Sanders. Photo: AP

Who will reach 1,991?

Thus, after the Super Tuesday Election Day, 1,357 delegates have been determined. Adding 155 delegates elected in the 4 states before, up to now, the total number of delegates has been 1,512/3,979 nationwide, equivalent to 39% of the votes determined. That means, Democratic candidates will still compete for 2,467 delegates until the presidential election takes place. However, it should be noted that in theory, the race will only end before the election in November, but in reality, the winner and loser can be clearly defined before July 13. This is the time of the Democratic National Convention. Because according to tradition, if any candidate secures at least 1,991 votes out of a total of 3,979 votes before this event, that candidate will become the party's final choice.

At this time, public opinion is focused on the two candidates who are likely to survive until the final round: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden entered the race with a perfect political record, and his years of political experience are more prominent than all the candidates. In contrast to Trump, coming from an ordinary working-class family, Biden found sympathy with the working class in the US. When he ran for office, Biden was also supported by many Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama.

Coming from an ordinary working-class family, Mr. Biden found empathy with the working class in America. Photo: New York Times

As for candidate Bernie Sanders, since 2016, this character has built a quite impressive strategy when focusing on expanding to attract young voters, voters of color and even working-class voters. Experts also believe that candidate Sanders has the ability and advantage to raise funds much stronger than candidate Biden. He personally once said that he is "a candidate funded by billionaires" and has connections across regions when focusing on many issues, such as tax fairness or reforming health care policies...

However, right before Super Tuesday, American tradition has raised unfavorable information that Russia is intervening to support candidate Sanders in this election. Despite Mr. Sanders' strong denial of the accusation, voters may have raised questions about the candidate they are considering. More importantly, according to the general assessment, in reality, neither Mr. Biden nor Mr. Sanders is the most expected candidate of the Democratic Party. If Mr. Sanders was born in 1942 - 78 years old this year, Mr. Biden was born in 1941 and is now 79 years old. Not to mention, if we consider the current winning momentum within the Democratic Party, in the case of continuing to win the presidential election at the end of the year, Mr. Biden will become the oldest President in American history. Meanwhile, facing a strong opponent, President Donald Trump - also 74 years old, the Democratic Party is looking for a new, youthful and truly different wind. Therefore, Mr. Biden's strength of experience and extensive political background is actually a disadvantage in this race.

Who will be the direct opponent of US President Donald Trump in the race in November later this year? Photo: White House

Of course, with no other choice, Democratic voters will have to choose between two figures who are both “nearly” 80 years old for the final race. At this point, Mr. Biden’s advantage is that he leads in many big states, and now receives the support of the group of delegates who supported the recently withdrawn candidates Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg. Meanwhile, candidate Sanders is likely to receive the support of the group of delegates supporting Ms. Warren – in case the candidate agrees to leave the race.

After Super Tuesday, the Democratic candidates will soon meet again on important election days such as March 10, when more than 350 delegates are determined, and March 17, when 577 delegates are up for grabs in key states such as Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. The early finals are expected to take place in late April, with a series of states competing for 650 delegates. Between now and then, there may still be plenty of time for candidates to make up their minds, and for undecided delegates to have enough time to consider their decisions!