Early Elections in Türkiye: Victory Is Not Enough

(Baonghean) - The victory in the early election in Türkiye on November 1 has given the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) a big advantage. But a majority result in the National Assembly is not enough to solve the current problems of the "land of flying carpets".

Change to win

Nearly five months after the defeat in the parliamentary elections in June and the unsuccessful attempt to form a coalition government, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is enjoying a victory. The result of nearly 49.7% of the votes for the AKP can be considered a surprise number because previous predictions showed that no party could win a majority of the 550 seats in the Turkish Parliament. Meanwhile, the main opposition Republican People's Party only won 23%, not enough to create competition with the AKP.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AKP won with a pledge on security and counter-terrorism.

In fact, the recent victory was completely inevitable, which is understandable if we know that the AKP has adopted a different strategy after the defeat in June. The AKP and its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have temporarily shelved the proposal to amend the Constitution, changing Türkiye from a parliamentary to a presidential system and increasing the powers of the supreme leader.

This is one of the AKP's top priorities and is also a controversial topic in this country. During previous election campaigns, President Erdogan often made speeches promoting the need to amend the Constitution, convincing voters to vote for the AKP so that the party could reach the required 400 seats in the National Assembly.

In the latest election, the AKP’s propaganda focused on the burning issues facing Turkish society today, such as security and enemies that are destroying the country, such as the Islamic State (IS). The AKP’s message was that the party had many unfinished security plans and therefore needed to be given the opportunity to complete the remaining ones for the benefit of the people. The AKP’s approach to voters also changed, with the party reducing the frequency of public appearances of its leaders.

The AKP’s strategy of exploiting the tense atmosphere in the country and convincing people to choose between instability and an orderly arrangement has made a difference. A large part of the Turkish electorate seems to agree with the view that continued instability will affect development and they want a return to a period of single-party rule, so that the government can easily respond decisively to terrorism.

Challenges that are not easy to solve

The recent efforts have brought clear results for the AKP, but the future ahead is not a rosy picture with many challenges awaiting.

First of all, the economic problem has been a headache for AKP leaders since the previous term. The “Iron Fist” governance policy that AKP has continuously applied during the past 13 years in power is no longer effective in creating positive momentum for the Turkish economy. The economy has been continuously declining, leading to a decline in public trust. The country’s economic growth rate, once forecast at 6-7%/year, has now been reduced to 4-5% for at least the next 3 years.

Turkish voters expect the AKP to help solve economic and security problems.

In such a context, the burden of immigration from neighboring countries has further pushed down Türkiye’s social welfare standards. According to official figures, 1.9 million Syrians fleeing the civil war are taking refuge in the country, but only a small number (around 250,000) are housed in 25 government-built refugee camps. The majority of the remaining refugees are scattered across the country, fueling resentment among local communities.

Uncontrolled refugees are blamed for rising crime rates, rising living costs, especially housing costs, and placing a heavy burden on local health systems and social security networks. Meanwhile, the amount of EU aid spent on building refugee reception centers remains an open question, with both Europe and Türkiye waiting for a final solution.

In addition, security and counter-terrorism plans will also be a challenge for the new government to meet the expectations of the people in the recent election. Türkiye's choice to participate in the US-led joint military campaign against IS will certainly have mixed effects.

If Türkiye hesitates in its fight against IS, it could become a fertile ground for the group to grow. But conducting security operations against IS also makes the country a new center of terrorism, as evidenced by two bloody bombings that killed 102 people in the capital Ankara early last month. Once the atmosphere of violence and terrorism is rekindled, it will create favorable conditions to encourage the Kurdish separatist community in Türkiye, which has ambitions to separate and establish an independent state.

Thanh Son