Belarus keeps distance from Russia because of Ukraine?

(Baonghean.vn) - Belarus has just undergone the largest government reshuffle in the past four years, with a series of key positions such as prime minister, ministers, and central bank leaders being dismissed.

The move comes as Belarus tries to protect its economy from the Russian ruble crisis. It is just one of the signs that Belarus is distancing itself from Russia, all of which stem from the Ukraine crisis.

Russian President Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Photo: RT

Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich, Chairman of the Central Bank Board of Directors and many other ministers are on the list of government figures dismissed by President Alexander Lukashenko. Although the Belarusian President's Office did not give a reason for this mass dismissal, at a meeting with government officials, President Lukashenko emphasized that the biggest threat to the country's development is the economic crisis that forced him to make this decision. Earlier this year, when the crisis in Eastern Ukraine began to break out, President Lukashenko also warned that he could dissolve the government if the country failed to achieve important economic goals. And the unwanted reality happened.

With this far-reaching government reshuffle, President Lukashenko has received the support of the Belarusian people, saying that this decision will help improve the current deadlock and expressing hope that the new people will do a better job. In the context of the Belarusian economy being negatively affected by the falling ruble as well as the Russian economy, this move of the Belarusian people is completely understandable. Because Russia is currently Belarus's main trading partner, every year this country exports to Russia nearly 50% of its crude oil and many industrial products and food; while more than 90% of commercial transactions are conducted in rubles. Russia is also the country that provides many subsidies to Belarus.

Therefore, despite the fact that Belarus is being pulled into the Eurasian Economic Union by Russia to counter the European Union, on December 18, due to concerns about further oil price drops and the continued decline of the Russian Ruble, President Lukashenko ordered all trade transactions with Russia to be changed to USD or Euro. Obviously, a scenario of internal division and economic stagnation in Ukraine is a warning that not only Belarus but also Kazakhstan must be wary of. Because although they are close allies of Russia, these two countries still find it difficult to let the fire of the Ukrainian crisis spread to their countries. Meanwhile, Belarus has both an allied relationship with Russia and good cooperation with Ukraine. Therefore, since the crisis in Eastern Ukraine broke out, Belarusian President Lukashenko has always wanted to be a neutral mediator, and at the same time declared his readiness to do everything to help Kiev restore peace in Eastern Ukraine.

While Belarus has begun to cautiously distance itself from the Russian economy, it has also made new moves toward Europe. In fact, Belarus has recently made a surprising profit by recycling and simply packaging food products from Europe that were embargoed by Russia. Russia has since accused Belarus of this and retaliated by imposing a ban on the import of some meat products from its neighbor. Not only that, Russia has also put barriers between the export route from Belarus to Kazakhstan through Russia. Because of these moves, not only has there been a gap, but there has also been a rift in the relationship between Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, according to analysts, the Belarusian president is hoping to continue winning the election at the end of next year, and of course will need a lot of financial resources. Therefore, in the context of Russia's economic difficulties and the gradual drying up of subsidies, Belarus is now looking to further promote discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on new loans.

With the current developments, it is possible to see an uncertain future for the Eurasian Economic Union that Russian President Putin is cherishing, of which Belarus is a member. However, this does not mean that Russia-Belarus relations will face bad scenarios, because after all, Russia is still a close ally and a traditional source of aid for Belarus. Besides, both have common interests to share. And Belarus does not want to become a second Ukraine. Therefore, perhaps, both Russia and Belarus now need to calculate to be able to come up with solutions that balance national interests and are suitable for the strategic foreign policies of both sides.

Phuong Hoa