South China Sea: Does the US want to change military tactics to stop China?

With China's "small stick" strategy, the current US suppression measures are completely ineffective. Therefore, the US Department of Defense is considering new military tactics to prevent the risk of China "nibbling" the East Sea.

The annual US-China dialogue is expected to be an opportunity for the US to pressure China to de-escalate in the East Sea. But so far, this pressure has only stopped at criticism and appeals, not strong enough to create any deterrent effect on Beijing. The current international situation is still creating room for China to continue to promote its strategy of "nibbling" the East Sea.

"Chinese Dream" or dream of hegemony?

International press quoted Xi Jinping's words in a meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry on July 10, emphasizing that a Sino-US confrontation would be a disaster for both countries and the world. "We need to respect each other and treat each other equally, respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as each side's choice on the path of development." Behind the gentle words, diplomacy is actually an equally tough attitude, of someone who is clearly aware of his position. It is not as blunt as the demand to divide the Pacific sphere of influence with the US by a Chinese general years ago. But the tone carries a warning implication: if you mess with me, you will also have to suffer the consequences.

Xi Jinping’s latest statement does not deviate from the general argument that he has repeatedly emphasized before, that China is no longer a weak country and Beijing is ready to defend its interests fiercely. The Xi Jinping era marks a fundamental shift in China’s grand strategy: from Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” to hegemonic diplomacy. In other words, from a country that accepts the current rules of the game, China will now become a creator of new rules that serve its national interests. That is the core of the so-called “Chinese Dream” that Xi Jinping is trying to promote as a new doctrine that forms the foundation of his leadership.

In that dream, dominating the East Sea is the key, the top strategic task of China. In terms of geopolitics and geostrategy, the East Sea is the intersection of vital shipping routes to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the US presence in the East Sea is much weaker than in the East China Sea. From China's perspective, the East Sea is perhaps the weakest link in the US security line in the Asia-Pacific, the breakthrough from which China can establish its position as a maritime power, gradually push the US out of the East Sea and divide its influence in the Pacific.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the US-China Strategic Dialogue. Photo: Reuters

"Rodent" game in the East Sea

However, Chinese leaders are also deeply aware that they would be setting themselves up for disaster if they were to confront the US directly in the South China Sea. China’s miraculous rise over the past three decades has benefited largely from a relatively peaceful and stable international security environment. Beijing’s leaders understand that economic development—not an arms race or military adventurism like the Soviet Union—is vital to ensuring that the country realizes its “Chinese dream.” A military invasion and seizure of islands in the South China Sea could spark a war and draw in the US—a nightmare for China itself. As long as this view prevails in Beijing, there will always be a “hard limit” to China’s strategy to monopolize the South China Sea, which is not to let a major military conflict break out.

Moreover, Beijing is not foolish enough to start a war when what it is pursuing in the East Sea is enough to help it achieve the same strategic goal. Up to now, it has been possible to identify relatively clearly the game that China is conducting in the East Sea. International scholars call it the "salami" tactic, which means nibbling away piecemeal.

This tactic is subtle in that it develops gradually, not to the point of causing a strong reaction from the opponent. However, its consequences are extremely dangerous, because after a long time, when other countries suddenly realize, China has changed the status quo of the dispute and public perception regarding the sovereignty claims.

The 981 rig incident, along with a series of other rigs moving into the East Sea, or China's recent release of the 10-dash map, are not outside the design of this game. Civilian forces supported by the PLA Navy, such as fishing boats and coast guard ships, do not hesitate to engage in low-intensity collisions, such as spraying water cannons, ramming, and destroying enemy assets. Most recently, Beijing sent military aircraft to fly around the rig to show off its strength and deter its opponents. These provocative and harassing actions are enough to discourage the opponent. Meanwhile, for Washington, such aggressive actions are only annoying and do not require strong intervention.

Chinese ship sprays water cannon at Vietnamese ship. Photo: Vietnam Coast Guard

US adjusts approach

In recent months, especially after the Haiyang Shiyou 981 incident, US strategists have begun to rethink their approach to the South China Sea. First, they have realized that efforts to deter China from exercising restraint have had little effect. Despite growing concern and strong warnings from the US, China has continued to gradually change the status quo in increasingly aggressive and brazen ways, causing concern among its neighbors and the US.

Some American scholars argue that the US military strategy in the Asia-Pacific seems to have been flawed in its initial approach. For years, the Pentagon’s brightest minds have been focused on scenarios of how the US could win a long-term war with China. They have come up with a new concept – known as AirSea Battle – to ensure that US warships and aircraft can penetrate disputed areas in the event of a conflict.

But the strategy that China is actually implementing in the South China Sea – this “nibbling” game – poses an entirely different military challenge to the US. Instead of deploying its navy, Beijing has been thoroughly exploiting the “small stick” tactic, using civilian and paramilitary vessels to carry out aggressive actions, leaving the US with little reason to respond.

With its “small stick” strategy, the current US suppression measures are completely ineffective, as a Washington official told the Financial Times. Therefore, the US Department of Defense is considering new military tactics to prevent China from “nibbling” the South China Sea. These solutions focus on the task of gathering more information about China’s activities – such as increasing reconnaissance activities by aircraft or radar. The US is also considering deploying more naval and air force operations in the disputed waters to challenge China’s efforts to seize sovereignty over new areas.

It is too early to judge whether Washington’s new military options will be enough to contain China. The United States must solve a dilemma: on the one hand, find ways to make China pay a higher price for pursuing a policy of coercion, intimidation, and violation of international law; on the other hand, not provoke a conflict - a price that the American people certainly do not accept. Conversely, Beijing will also closely monitor Washington’s response to adjust its moves.

In short, the East Sea will remain hot in the coming time, but it will not reach the boiling point. Such a situation poses unpredictable challenges for countries like Vietnam.

According to vietnamnet